We realize their was an era of pretty rampant preps to pros relatively recently right
I’m not sure this is going to be the thunderbolt being portrayed here.
I also don’t understand why this would make a guy who goes to college for his first year more likely to leave prior to his second than before?
Forcing guys like Cade Cunningham and John Wall and Anthony Davis to play college basketball was a joke.
Yeah and it made the game more watered down. Gonna be even worse now, as you could probably anticipate 20-35 players going pro straight out of high school every year. Gonna be a massive shock to the talent pool.
In what way? Only one of those guys was the best player in college basketball. And for every top ten guy who is great there are 2-3 guys who fall down the board (last year for example: Hardy, Bates, Duren, Baldwin, Chandler, Houstan, Watson, etc.). What about Harrison Barnes? Or Austin Rivers? We definitely don’t have a perfect picture coming out of high school as to who is actually good enough to be a successful pro.
Because forcing John Wall to play for free when he blatantly could have made million immediately is immoral. John Wall, and dozens of other kids have literally no interest in playing college basketball and we’re compelled to do so.
There’s a simple rule for kids who don’t get drafted - amend the rule and let them play in college.
How did you come up with this number? I wouldn’t really imagine it would be that big. Right now there are probably 5-10 players over the last few classes that do some sort of pro option. Do you think another 20 players in each class join them?
Is that just based on not wanting to play CBB? It should be pretty obvious that something like half of those guys wouldn’t get drafted right once you add in euros and college players?
I feel like if the number is that high … something like the top 30 kids per class and they are all getting drafted then sophomores will be more apt to return to school at that point. Either way, I don’t see it being some catastrophe for the college game.
John Wall could have made a million playing professionally back in 2010 if he was willing to go overseas. And right now in the current system, there are plenty of options in America between the G League, OTE and college NIL to make money. I agree that not paying college athletes was immoral, but I don’t view the one-and-done rule as particularly immoral. Feels like a very normal “You need X years of experience to be accepted at this job” situation, because that additional year of scouting does a lot for determining the readiness for the job of NBA player. The NBA can give that up, but it will be very stupid of them and it woudn’t shock me to see it reinstituted after you get enough Emoni Bates’ drafted in the top 10.
My guess is that the number of players who go one and done will be approximately the number of them who declare directly out of high school. And yes not all of them will be drafted, but they’ll have started their chance at making the NBA and all of will legitimately believe they will make it, because that’s how all these kids are wired. Looks like about 28-30 freshman were one and dones last year. And then add the G League guys as well.
Do you think that the trend of NBA-level players not staying multiple years in college has not been a catastrophe for the college game?
When did NBA-level players stay multiple years in college? This isn’t exactly new.
I don’t think the best path to winning is based on prioritizing one-and-done players. I think college basketball as a sport/industry is very much based on team fandom.
Enthusiasm around the game stems from teams being really good. I think there are a lot of different models to get there and the portal is going to add another wrinkle to that.
Obviouisly there are exceptions like Zion Williamson, but if guys like Kennedy Chandler, Peyton Watson, JD Davison, Caleb Houstan and Moussa Diabate go pro instead of playing a year in college, I don’t really see that changing how the sport works.
Take 2020-21 for an example… it wasn’t like Jalen Green, Kuminga, Todd and Nix really changed much about the season. AND Cade Cunningham and Evan Mobley weren’t really defining stars for the year. Not that they weren’t good but it isn’t like they were headline news.
Instead it was about Baylor, Gonzaga, Michigan, Illinois, Houston, Iowa… a bunch of teams that probably had what, one one-and-done combined?
I also just don’t think that the top 30 is automatically going to enter the draft. I imagine it would be something like 80% of the top 10, 50% of the next 20, then 4-5 kids in the top-100 who aren’t interested in college or it isn’t a great fit for them for whatever reason.
During College basketball’s peak of popularity in the 80s and 90s? I agree that it’s not realistic to expect in the modern age, but the game is affected by the talent of players as well as fan loyalty. It affects the qualities of the games and draws casual eye balls to the sport.
Is college basketball only about the top 5 stories? Isn’t the point of college basketball that you have a large parity of teams with different styles and different types of players that all have realistic chances to accomplish something notable and great? Cade was definitely a major storyline for the season carrying a garbage OK State team on his back all year, and Evan Mobley’s USC made a surprise Elite 8! They weren’t top 5 narratives, but they were definitely top 10 or so.
And then how does the quality of basketball look once Duke, Kentucky and KU have every player from the top 25-50 and the rest of college basketball quality just degrades more and more?
I don’t think CBB is doomed, but it’s 100% guaranteed to continue to get worse.
EDIT: I also would say that 90% of the top 50 players (and that might be underestimating it) are not interested in college basketball for the sake of it being college basketball. College hoops is just the most comfortable and profitable “pro” opportunity for most players coming out of high school. Very few high schoolers are going to pick college over a 50% chance of making the NBA IMO.
When did NBA-level players stay multiple years in college? This isn’t exactly new.
I’d actually say nba level players that weren’t direct to high school were staying multiple years waaaaaay more frequently until the one and done was implemented. Jay williams, mike dunleavy, jason richardson, paul davis, shane battier, kirk heinrich, nick collison, chris paul etc. were all guys who could have left much earlier in their college years and would of had they been in college recently. The one and done rule seemed to speed guys up for whatever reason. Maybe going back to the old system will take us back to that, but i think the thing that really sped things up was the nba(especially many of its stars) actively rooting against college basketball and talking about how bad it was when it was their league who made the one and done rule.
Yeah, and I don’t really think this changes based on the number of pros in the game. That’s kind of my point.
Kentucky games aren’t less popular because Oscar isn’t a pro. Oscar isn’t less marketable because he isn’t a pro.
Scoot or the Thompson twins not being in college basketball doesn’t really change the landscape of the sport from my POV.
Guys like Hunter, Caleb Love, Oscar, Timme, etc. are all generally good for the game.
I just don’t think one-year NBA talent really makes the game significantly better. The hope would be that allowing obvious NBA talent to go right to the NBA Draft combined with NIL makes it more realistic that fringe NBA guys stay multiple years.
He didn’t play for free. He got tuition, room and board.
Cade Cunningham was the best player in college basketball that year imo.
This is what I was getting at up above re: “Tarris Reed types” … The fact that you have to choose to go to college will make it more likely that people in college actually want to be in college. It will also mean more competition for draft spots (with an income in college) and maybe, just maybe, you get a bit of roster continuity at some levels.
Caleb Love is a good example of what I meant by the general exodus of talent. If you’re Caleb Love, ranked #14 by the composite, why the heck are you risking going to college? He’s had to stick in college for 4 years because he’s not that good. I can’t imagine that’s how he envisioned his career working out. If you’re a top 20 recruit and you go to college in a world without the one and done rule, you’re insane
Because forcing John Wall to play for free when he blatantly could have made million immediately is immoral.
This is over the top. Many professions have some kind of restrictive entry rules. You could be the most gifted medical resident ever and it doesn’t matter, you still have to complete the program before you can have a regular practice. Entering the NBA workforce at 19 is a pretty good deal.
I mean a fringe top 20 recruit is not necessarily an automatic first round pick by any stretch. I just don’t think that every top 20 recruit will automatically skip college.
And I meant Caleb Love the current player as an archetype. I’m sure there will be other shoot first PGs at big schools who have similar big runs and play multiple years.
For an education he had no interest in and didn’t pursue. So yeah - for nothing of value to him.
We can agree nobody will die by letting Wall play basketball right
Look if people were interested exclusively in quality of play, Dylan would be writing a Cavs blog or something, not a college one.
It seems over heated to declare the end times of college hoops because they are reverting to a rule that was in place for basically all but 20 years of existence.
Automatic 1st rounder? Not quite. Automatic top 45 with some guaranteed money? I’d bet that.
Where in the world do you get the notion that Duke, Kentucky and Kansas will sign almost every player in the top 25-50 if one and done is eliminated? It didn’t happen before there were one and dones, and it seems less likely to happen now. If everyone is allowed to leave out of high school, then the second level guys are going to need developmental programs to make the league, and there’s no real evidence that those schools other than Kansas are that. Moreover, those kids are less likely to get huge NIL deals to sign at those schools, because there are way more misses once you get beyong the first 15 or so, and even more when you get beyond 40. Finally, kids who are 25-50 are going to want to be showcased to climb the draft ladder–you aren’t going to get a Peyton Watson drafted in the first round even though he averaged 2.3 ppg based on his prep stuff from a year before, because there will be high schoolers AND productive collegians standing in the way. That will further spread out players.
Would he have gotten drafted? Us getting him in college is a win for the fan,no?