I’ve said it for years, the nba and colleges refusal to get into a room and solve these type of issues together is beyond me. Its only going to hurt both sports. Its the only sport of the 4 major ones where the pro ranks and college ranks dont have a partnership but antagonistic relationship. Some form of the nhl draft rules would be incredible for both sides imo.
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CBB will lose ton of talent you’re going see a lot of delusion from the high schools ranks for several years(bunch of kids going only to be drafted really late or go undrafted). Kids are more and more anxious to leave and this will only expedite that IMO.
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I know Dylan has talked about it before, but the NBA would not want the Hockey rules at all. They’d almost certainly just rather make the GLeague a true minor league, and expand the draft (which I believe is being talked about as well). Basically the baseball model is way more likely than the Hockey model
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The baseball system makes no sense for basketball though. The MLB needs their own minor league system because there aren’t enough independent leagues to develop all their players and thus they need to spend a bunch of resources to do it themselves. That’s a cost they are forced to bear. The MLB minor league system does not make money and the G League never will either.
The NBA is gifted a free high-quality minor league and for some reason they are intent to fuck it up so that they can burn money on Isaiah Todd for no reason. I don’t get it.
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The nba does have a bunch of delusion that they can make the g league into something but the hockey model would be way more beneficial imo. Model helps a ton with building up brands of young players and hockey also has some very successful minor league teams despite the rules.
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Honestly, why is this going to be such a negative for CBB? I think it’ll probably put some more pressure on borderline kids to stay in school, it’ll let guys who don’t want to be in school go to the league.
A lot of the players who will go HS->NBA were already doing HS->something else.
CBB will hinge more on transfers (obviously) and multi-year players, but that could improve the quality of play I would guess.
If it’s 2024 though… then EVERYONE is going pro this year 
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I think product will become worse though. I think it would become much harder to recruit. If we are to believe that the majority of top 10-15 players in the country go to Duke/Kentucky etc… Ignoring the ones that go to Ignite etc… The players that are ranked top 20-30-50 would be the targets of teams like Duke and Kentucky. Maybe Michigan doesn’t have a chance at a Tarris Reed because now a team like Duke or Kentucky offers.
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and now a tarris reed type is going be even more sped up to leave college imo
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What is a Tarris Reed type? I’m not sure I really see Tarris Reed on a path to rush to the NBA and don’t really see how this would impact him.
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A top 40 or 50 guy may not look at a school like Michigan if Duke or Kentucky gets in on him.
moreso about the level of player than the position
Again, I don’t see how this rushes guys who aren’t really on the NBA radar to the NBA.
i think a franz wagner type will be way more rushed to get the nba after his frosh year than in the current setup,
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I don’t think Franz Wagner-types were really returning back to college in droves right now. Wagner’s situation was unique, not to mention COVID/etc.
I also don’t really see how this impacts the logic for those players, either. Why does this change make them more likely to go? I’d say that freshmen who would be picked in the first round are probably 75%+ likely to go right now, FWIW.
Now they will be up against international, HS seniors and other college players though.
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Looking at the 2005 NBA draft, there were 9 straight out of High School players drafted. Not sure how many declared but there are more options for those that declare and don’t get picked than there were in 2005.
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Not so much this particular move, but the landscape of college hoops with unregulated NIL and the portal is concerning. No stability there. We will certainly have even less reason to recruit 5 stars now. The 40-120 range would seem to be the way to go, especially if the staff can identify players who are underrated or have good growth potential.
I think the concern here is the chaos that affects the players, the NBA, and college - at least short term. I agree with an earlier comment about how the NBA and NCAA not being able to work together is the root of the challenge here while the other major sports have made things work.
The part of the chaos that I think will hurt the players the most is the deadline to declare. Kids who are eager to make the league might declare out of HS because they can and their support group push them that way. If they can latch on somewhere and make a little money, that may be plausible and avoid them pretending to be a student. But I think between 95-05 about 20% of the HS kids that declared washed out in 2 years. Would they have been better off in college? Would NIL have changed their decisions? Does it matter for the NBA or NCAA either way? Maybe or maybe not.
I know many, Dylan included, think the hockey rule wouldn’t work - but I’m still see it as an ideal setup for all three stakeholders.
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Who does it help?
Obviously there’s change with NIL and the portal, but in many ways those are things that probably make college more appealing, right? I get that there’s uncertainty currently, but college is now a path where players can make a very real sum of money, and get an education, and aren’t locked into a specific spot.
There’s going to be a very real path to up-transferring for star mid-major freshmen with monetary incentive, there’s going to be a reason for fringe guys to return to school, these should all help the game long term I think.
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If 80% of the high school to pro guys lasted over two years that seems like a good thing for those that went and got drafted. 1/5 of college to pro guys have to wash out quickly too