I think that’s overall a very fair assessment. I think Rutgers this year will be about the same as last year. And last year they tied for 5th in conference, so I think the idea that they finish 5/6/7 is very possible, especially considering Maryland and PSU are almost guaranteed to drop behind them. I also wouldn’t be surprised if they finished in the 8/9 role.
Rutgers is overrated (see below) but I think Dylan is correct in that the teams right behind Michigan, OSU, and Rutgers all have huge question marks. Is IU going to be any good? Do we believe in Purdue?
While Rutgers was legit good last year (especially on D) and returns a solid roster. There were a couple other notes to share about their season last year:
- Against the other contenders (MSU, UM, Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois) they went 2-6…and one of those was before Wisconsin went on their hot streak.
- They went 2-7 outside of the RAC in the conference…with one of those being a gimmie against Nebraska and their only other win being in overtime against a bad Purdue team.
- Rutgers struggled down the stretch (insert your narrative here) going 4-6 in their last ten with that record being propped up by the OT win over Purdue and another OT win over lowly Northwestern.
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I can’t believe I’ve turned myself into the Rutgers defender on this board, never saw that happening haha. Once again, definitely agree with the first statement that all those teams have flaws, and that any of them could finish in any real order and it wouldn’t surprise me. That being said:
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Your other contender list confuses me. It seems like your listing how last year’s Rutgers team did against last year’s version of this year’s contenders, which seems backwards. If you’re going to judge last year’s team, you should do it against the the teams they played last year, not teams we project to be ahead of them this year. And last year against the teams that finished above them in the B1G standings (MSU, Maryland, UW, Illinois), they went 3-4, plus a win against PSU. By the same token, Michigan finished 1-5 against those teams.
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Michigan went 4-6 on the road, with 2 wins being Nebraska/Northwestern, one being that same “bad” Purdue win, and then a win @ Rutgers. Almost no one was impressive on the road last year, so it seems weird to only judge Rutgers negatively for it.
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Michigan finished the season 1-3 only beating Nebraska. I don’t really put much narrative in how you finished the season since it’s pretty dependent on the order of your schedule.
Once again, I’m not saying Rutgers is going to win the B1G. But they were a top 30 team nationally last year to advanced metrics, so legitimately good, and only lose 1 player from that team. You look at them vs a team like OSU, and I honestly am surprised people are putting OSU above them.
OSU was clearly the better team advanced metric wise last year. But look at OSU this year and you have:
- A team that lost 3.5 starters (Wesson, Wesson, Muhammad and Carton).
- A team that lost #1, 3, 6 and 7 players according to Torvik’s PORPAGATU! (and Carton would have been much higher had he played all season).
- A team that lost their top 2 players by USG.
- A team that returns 2 players who shot above 32% from 3 last year (Washington and Ahrens). Now they do get Jallow back and add Sueing, Towns and Sotos. But neither Jallow nor Sueing have topped 33% from deep in a season, and Towns still isn’t healthy and may not be until January. Sotos you can add as a 3rd shooter though.
- A team that has 2 ball handlers in Walker and Sotos. Sotos, however, was a 98.4 ORTG on 22% USG at Bucknell last year, so what do you expect from him this year? And this is after they lost Abdel Nader, a former Utah State walk-on who was expected to be the primary backup PG.
- A team that brings in the #7 recruiting class in the B1G, behind Rutgers for example, and it’s only that high because Meechie Johnson was a 2021 guy who reclassified and is going to be a mid-year add, so he won’t even be around for the start of the season. The other 2 guys are both 3 stars outside of the top 130.
- A team that has 8 guys projected to play >30% of minutes right now by Torvik. However 2 of those 8 (Jallow and Towns) still aren’t healthy or practicing as of a few weeks ago, and even with those 2 none of the guys on the court will be taller than 6’8.
This is a much longer and more verbose post than I intended, but to me it just seems like a team like Rutgers is an easy choice above a team like OSU, especially considering how OSU has collapsed (relative to expectations) in the B1G these past two years. That being said I am often wrong about a lot of things, and in 3 months I wouldn’t be surprised at all to look at this post and see how wrong I am again about both teams.
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IMO there looks to be a serious drop between the top three and the rest of the league, with ours and MSU’s as swing programs that could fit in either category. They are the two teams that seem to have the biggest gap between possible floors and ceilings. At this point MSU looks to have a significantly higher floor, but UM possibly the higher ceiling.
I also agree about OSU. Holtmann’s teams start hot and fade; and their moving on from not just a few players but also an identity those players provided. Just like M and MSU are. I just don’t see much upside there to justify picking them over Rutgers.
I do think the empty-RAC point is a valid one.
Nobody is saying Rutgers is going to be bad. But those same advanced metrics said Rutgers was the 10th best (KenPom and Torvik) team in the Big Ten last season. Sure the margins were tiny at that point, but they basically won a bunch of close games at home last season including OT with Northwestern and a nailbiter with Nebraska while losing to bad St Bonnies and Pitt teams OOC.
Those same advanced metrics predict them to finish 9th (KenPom) or 8th (Torvik) in the Big Ten this season.
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Couldn’t disagree more
Wow, Jalen Smith drafted 10th overall to the Suns. Know the upside is there but that early is surprising
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Big reach IMO. ESPN apparently agreed, you could tell they were panicking to get his video feed up.
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Crazy… He was probably the fifth-best big man in the Big Ten last year.
I couldn’t believe Patrick Williams went so high too. The Bulls already have a weird mix of stretch 4s who struggle with consistency so drafting a really young guy that is a great athlete but doesn’t quite know who he is as a player seems… typical NBA. #potential
Picks like that are why Isaiah Todd went G-League.
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Xavier Tillman finally drafted at 35.
Love what he offers. Also an incredible human being. Hope and expect him to stay in the league for the next 10+ years. Wish it was anywhere other than Sacramento though. I think the Kings got a lot of value out of Tillman at 35 though.
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I think he’s actually going to Memphis via trade. Joining Jaren Jackson
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That’s actually a great landing spot then imo. That’s a very young, exciting team. Xavier will actually be older than most the top players from last years team. He should provide a ton of leadership and toughness for them inside.
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wanted tillman over Nnaji for the nuggets so badly
Yeah he’s going to Memphis. Good situation for him.
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I think their a rock solid team but that home court advantage was real. Without it I agree. I don’t see them passing
Wisconsin
Iowa
Illinois
M-state
Michigan
Purdue
For sure then if the Ohio st transfers are as good as advertised that is tough too. I think 7-9 is about right.