I still think it’s weird that Iowa brings back 80% of their minutes played last year and the best player in the country and everyone is just like “ehhh they won’t be that good”. They don’t need to be good or even average defensively to win a ton of games this year. It’s pretty unprecedented that a player like Garza last year returns.
If you want to make the argument that it makes them more dangerous to an early upset in March, I’ll buy that. One cold shooting night and they won’t have a lot to fall back on. But there have been a ton of very good college teams with a KenPom defense rank near 100 that were just elite offensively that won major conference titles and were elite regular season squads.
Last year Wisconsin and Iowa were neck and neck and ended one spot away from eachother in kenpom. I really think it should be a toss up between the two and Illinois for favorite in the conference.
For me it comes down to the fact that Wisconsin was significantly better in league games (+4.4 vs. +1.7) with a tougher league schedule and has a program that routinely wins double digit Big Ten games.
Iowa has had a top 20 offense and a 97 or worse defense for three years in a row and has been slightly above average to bad for three years. Luka Garza was incredible last year and Iowa… wasn’t.
While I think it is likely Iowa is “good” (say top 25), I think it is unlikely they are near the top 5 (by something like KenPom).
2017 UCLA had a great record in one of the weakest major conferences around. The 4th place team in the Pac 12 that year didn’t even make the tourney.
2015 Notre Dame had a shiny record, but that was in a conference with 7 teams ranked 78th or below in KenPom to fatten up against.
2014 Michigan was obviously a great team to watch, but even they barely cracked the top 10 in KenPom on a few occasions all season.
2012 Missouri was fairly consistently in the 7-9 range on KenPom all year but only had 2 wins over #13 Baylor and 1 win over #4 Kansas as top 25 KenPom wins all regular season (for comparison, last season Michigan had 6 wins over KenPom top 25 opponents).
So Iowa is going to win games. It just seems unlikely that they are going to totally wreck what should be a very strong conference and be a 1 seed in the tourney. Seems far more likely that they are in the 10-20 range nationally and probably around a 4-5 seed in the tourney.
Only mention of Michigan in the whole preview is this anonymous coach quote.
“I like [Michigan’s Isaiah] Livers. I think he’s a definite all-league player. He’s as versatile as anyone in the league, besides Garza, maybe including Garza. They had a group last year that was used to winning, used to playing a certain way. Credit to their staff, they didn’t try to reinvent the wheel and play a different way. For the most part, it worked out for them. It will be harder this year with different personnel … how they decide to play, how they put the puzzle together.”
I’m both a little annoyed that a team returning two NBA prospects that has four seniors and the top incoming recruiting class gets hardly a mention in a preview. But maybe that’s good - keep the pressure off while Juwan figures out the rotation and then maybe we can build momentum into the tournament.
I’m always a proponent of “The less national ink, the better, before the season.” Let the games do the talking and let the ESPN talking heads spew whatever revisionist analysis about U-M they need to to justify their existence. UMHoops is pretty much the only site where I heed the content during the preseason. (and pretty much during the season and post-seaston, as well)
The other thing that Iowa has shown over the years besides playing zero defense is that Fran will lose his shit and that will cost them a game or two. Gotta throw that into the calculus as well.
Rutgers is the most overrated team in the conference. Change my mind. They’ll finish closer to 10th than 5th. Maybe I’m biased by Michigan winning at the RAC and my general dislike of Rutgers and their playing style
Maybe it’s more my own personal lack of love for Wisconsin that’s shading my Iowa views. I just refuse to believe that a team with a starting backcourt of DMitrik Trice and Brad Davison is going to run away with the big ten crown. The only time anyone on this Wisconsin roster made the NCAA tourney they got bounced in a 5/12 upset by 20 points. They’ll be tough as nails like they always are but I’m not seeing the high ceiling that most others do.
I don’t think it’s a high ceiling so much as a high floor in what is sure to be a crazy season. They will have 5 seniors who all could average double figures. Plus they tied for a share of the league last year and the two teams they tied with lost significant pieces (Cowan/Smith, Winston/Tillman). It’s logical to think that they are a good bet to be consistently solid enough to not lose many games. May not be final four good, but good enough to finish with the best record in the Big Ten.
I agree on Rutgers. People have gotten too excited about them and they are pretty much widely picked to be 5th, but I could definitely see them finishing 8th or 9th. I feel like scrappy teams that struggle to score are the types where you can see a fall off year to year. And without the rocking home environment at the RAC this year, they may not sweep their home gym like they did last year.
I’m not convinced Wisconsin will win the Big Ten as much as I’m confident they’ll finish ahead of Iowa and Illinois. If someone other than Wisconsin wins the Big Ten, my guess is that it is someone else entirely.
If both Isaiah and Franz both have breakout years, as I think possible, look for Michigan to threaten that first four likely best teams. Personally, I am gonna burn a candle for Livers before every game.
I think that’s pretty fair, once again I personally think that 1-4 can go in any order and so can 5-9.
With Rutgers, they were a top 30 team to KenPom and Torvik last year. Their defense is elite and each of the last 3 years their offense has made massive jumps (270-150-75 on KenPom). They also only lose Yeboah and bring back everyone else, including a top 50 level recruit in Cliff Omoruyi.
Basically they tied for 5th in the conference last year (with 4 other teams). I think it’s guaranteed they pass Maryland/Penn St., and unless you think Michigan, Indiana and Purdue are going to pass them up with OSU moving ahead of them (which very well might happen), it’s reasonable to put them in the 6/7 range.
Good way to put it. Gard oversees a well-oiled machine that may not be exciting but it’s the team probably least likely to shoot itself in the foot. That says nothing about the postseason, but the question is conference play.
I would guess Rutgers defense regresses a smidge. They were elite last year, but merely pretty good the 2 previous seasons and they benefited from some poor opponent 3 point shooting last season.
And while their offense has made huge improvements from worst major conference team in the country to merely bad, they have not made any significant roster additions that would expect to see that make another big leap this season nor were they particularly young last season with only 1 freshman seeing any minutes. Omoruyi is a big time recruit, but it’s unlikely he does anything more than somewhat offset the loss of Yeboah who was one of their most consistent players last season.
Steve Pikiell has never been a good offensive coach but his defenses are always strong. This season looks like more of the same.
but I also don’t like MSU enough to pick them to win.