Yeah I mean I have no issue with having them below any of those teams necessarily. Except Iowa cause I think they’ll be no better than last year. Msu has a LOT riding on Henry and Watts offensive development
Feels more like an outlier than something to bank on.
Couldn’t be happier for Tillman!!
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You could probably add Penn State to Tier 3.
I like us in tier two. Maybe higher if things fall into place. Will be interesting. Really hope we see it
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I think you’re giving Iowa and Illinois way too much credit. I agree that they will both be good and may contend for the conference, but BIG gap? I’ll believe that when I see it. Illinois can’t shoot and Iowa can’t play defense. That limits their ceilings. They will both lose enough games to not run away from MSU, Michigan, etc.
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I’d love to believe you’re right but I mean, Illinois was 3 games ahead of Michigan in the conference last year, loses Andres Feliz and that’s it, and adds two top-100 wings. I don’t know how Michigan loses Simpson and Teske and keeps up with that.
As for Iowa, I just don’t get everyone’s line of thinking for “they can’t get better”. Maybe Garza can’t, but couldn’t CJ Fredrick or Joe Wieskamp make similar jumps to what everyone expects Franz to make? Doesn’t Bohannon coming back mean something?
Even if they are the exact same team as last year (which I don’t believe they will be, I think they will be better), I think that team could win this year’s big ten based on what MSU/Michigan/Maryland/Ohio State all lose.
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I like Iowa’s talent, but their defensive shortcomings are pretty well documented. Another factor is that…I just don’t trust Fran to lead them to a B1G title. He will do something or lose his shit at some random thing that will absolutely kill them. And this will probably happen multiple times.
Illinois does have some high level talent, but can they put it all together? And I agree with Dylan’s take that Wisconsin may have played their best stretch of basketball they can play at the end of the year and can they sustain that?
Michigan and State certainly have questions to answer, but I wouldn’t discount those programs that have been successful at a high level recently.
The fact of the matter is you can’t just out-shoot/score your opponents every game, especially on the road. Unless Iowa learns to play SOME defense, they will lose games when they arent shooting lights out because their defense cannot carry them.
Don’t get me wrong, they will be good, but there is no way they will be near as good as whatever their preseason ranking is (likely top 5-10).
And Illinois finishing 3 games ahead of Michigan is with an asterisk because Michigan fell off a cliff during the time frame that Livers was out. If Livers was healthy throughout, Michigan likely would have been ahead of Illinois and in the mix for the Big Ten.
Like I said, it’s not that you have both of those teams up there that I have a problem with (I’d have them both in my own top 3-4). It is the “big gap” comment that I think is completely off base.
I respect that opinion and I typically agree with your posts so this is a rare time we’re not on the same side. But I do think one of the only places right now that wouldn’t say there’s a “big gap” between Iowa/Illinois/Wisconsin and Michigan is this site.
Hope we actually get to see it play out!
Beyond whatever you think of Michigan… I just don’t think the three teams everyone likes at the top of the Big Ten (Illinois, Iowa and Wisconsin) have the sort of elite ceiling that maybe a team like MSU had the last few years.
Illinois probably has the most obvious route to getting there but I’m still a bit skeptical.
Feels like all three are legit top 15 teams but I’d be scared to pick them as top five teams.
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That’s fair. I think I agree on your top 5 point, I’m not sure I’d call any of the three a certain national title contender. I think Illinois is probably closest, it’s not hard for me to see a world where Ayo and Kofi surrounded by some shooters is one of the best teams in the country and wins 25-30 games.
I would probably put Illinois in the 5-7 range, Iowa 7-10 and Wisconsin 10-15 right now. But my larger point is everyone else is a fringe top 25 team at best. I’m not ranking MSU until I see what their point guard/center situation looks like and I still think they’re the next best in the conference.
Out of curiosity, what teams would you for sure have ahead of these three (or just Illinois so we can avoid re-hashing the Iowa discussion) that makes you confident they aren’t top 5? Gonzaga, Villanova and Baylor are the only three I would say are absolutely ahead of Illinois.
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Any shot we’ll be getting your Big Ten preseason rankings or tiers soon with all these decisions or should I hold onto that one for the next mailbag?
Yeah, trying to put something together as far as a Big Ten post.
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Haven’t studied enough rosters nationally… Moreso using the hueristic of how good a top-5 team generally is (i.e. wins the Big Ten by a bunch, can outscore league teams by 10-15 points per 100 possessions, etc.)
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Thanks Dylan!
Gotcha that makes sense. Honestly I think part of the reason everyone’s ranking them up there is that Kentucky, Duke, Kansas, UNC all have mehhhhh rosters compared to what is normal for the last decade.
I’m with you on Illinois. Not as much Iowa. I respect them and they’ll be good but I don’t think top ten and I don’t like them to win the big ten.
The league will be competitive. Illinois and Wisconsin will be real tough.
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The presumed top 3 of the Big Ten is a pretty unique situation in college basketball. Iowa and Wisconsin have maybe 1 or 2 NBA players between them at best, but they’re returning all their guys. Iowa is even returning the most prolific offensive player in the country and unanimous AA. But that player, and their whole team, is genuinely terrible at defense. And in most of their cases it’s physical limitations that won’t improve over a year. Wisconsin would be my preseason pick, but they possibly shot unsustainably well. Also 2 of their best players don’t fit well together on the court. Illinois has the high end talent combined with defensive potential the others don’t, but Ayo has not really proven to be terribly efficient.
My point being these teams are returning a lot but still have questions imo. But could all be extremely good
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Great illustration of why to be skeptical of Iowa…
I’ll wait for someone to give me one reason why the Hawkeyes will suddenly be better on that end of the court.
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