Minnesota at 13th is closer to Michigan at 1st than they are to Iowa.
Sell hard on Iowa, they’ll be 15-20 range at best.
1 Like
Returning a lot just provides a team with a solid floor. Same nonsense that lead everybody to overrate Nevada as a top 10 team last year. Iowa was 31st in Torvik, they aren’t returning a bunch of high ceilings players, they’re returning a bunch of players on an overall mediocre P6 team.
You should only expect returning production to result in a large jump from the team if it’s a bunch of freshman returning, or you have high impact recruits joining the team.
1 Like
Torvik’s model is surprisingly bearish on Iowa. It has:
#6 Wisconsin
#13 Ohio State
#14 Michigan State (updated for Tillman leaving)
#15 Illinois
#21 Michigan (without Chaundee)
#23 PSU
#24 Indiana
#30 Iowa
#36 Rutgers
#44 Purdue
Even has Iowa as the #1 projected offense. (#115 on defense)
Pretty sure they also like WVU at 1 and Texas at 2
Their rankings can be pretty bizarre at times, although you can still draw from it
I know what I’m getting Dylan for Christmas:
https://www.amazon.com/Fran-McCaffery-Building-Championship-Defense/dp/B00NAKA0YS
23 Likes
Also - this is a cool tool from Torvik. Returning minutes matrix that lets you project average change in Offensive and Defensive efficiency. You can sort by conference and team if you really want to filter down. Generally teams improve more on both ends with a correlation to returning minutes.
As far as I can tell, projected returning minutes next year are:
Iowa 82%
Illinois 80%
Wisconsin 72%
Michigan State 68%
Michigan 56%
1 Like
WVU should be legit. Number one good, no way,but good.
I think the parallels between MSU and Michigan having to rebuild after losing their long-standing fixtures at PG & C will be interesting.
- Both teams return a SF they’re hoping turns into a star and future draft pick
- Both teams return a PF that’s going to be a fixture of their offense but someone that is a better piece of the puzzle rather than the star.
- Both teams have huge question marks at center. Bodies, skill, and potential…but lost of unknown.
- Both teams are counting on their back-court to define their ceiling but neither has much depth or sure footing. (Watts is more likely to be a star for MSU, but at least Michigan knows their starters and both have tons of experience.)
5 Likes
Man, I’m skeptical of Iowa but I will eat my hat if they finish behind Ohio State, Penn State AND Indiana. Only way they finish behind those is if Fran completely implodes. Which isn’t out of the realm of possibility.
This also another way of saying that I think Ohio State, Penn State and Indiana are quite overrated here.
I’m probably alone but I’m running back Indiana to surprise. I think hunter finally has a good year on the wing. Then Davis, Brunk, and Thompson up front. Backcourt Durham , lander, Franklin,Phinisee. Should finally be good imo.
Well, that’s settled:
Odd article. He basically just drew parallels to completely different teams that have little in common. Also gives no reason for the defense to improve, just that it should. Also mentions Iowa increasing their pace? Not sure how increasing their pace would involve going more all-on on a Garza led offense like he says.
1 Like
What? You didn’t find it insightful when he compared four reigning number one seeds returning their player of the year candidates to a mediocre Iowa team returning theirs?
4 Likes
Haha thats my favorite. The old “Their defense is unfathomably bad but they return everyone so for some undisclosed reason it will be better”.
1 Like
Communication and familiarity . Always trumps a players slow feet and limited athletic ceiling.
1 Like
Not sure I necessarily agree with that when the limitations involve basically every player on the roster. Although I could buy it if they had a coach that had proven he could coach a good defense. Which Iowa doesn’t. They’ve basically run a smorgasbord of defenses for the last 3 years cause they’re bad at all of them
1 Like
MSU announced Jack Hoiberg (son of Fred Hoiberg and former walk on) will be on scholarship.
The Student-Body President! Didn’t know of him.
3 Likes
Just as a walk-on for this season, FWIW. Similar to Dakich, etc. in the past at Michigan.