2021 NCAA Tournament Open Thread

Not to mention, doing something yourself can help with nerves, especially if you do that thing a lot. I’m definitely more nervous with other people driving a car than me. Reminds me of how fighter pilots can do crazy maneuvers and basically be fine, but if they ride along with someone they tend to get more sick.

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THE champion basketball team of Illinois…LOYOLA!
Our State Shirt + Hoodie - Licensed by Loyola Chicago - BreakingT

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Yeah I mean I have no idea what 17 year old kids think is cool/impressed by, but not sure how anyone couldn’t be won over by that guy. Call him corny, and Juwan is obviously smart enough to know that when he speaks he is selling the program, but there a lot of people who try to be their best selves on camera and basically everyone falls short of that.

And that’s entirely separate from his impressive track record as a player/person, though that of course shaped who he is.

I was thinking about this from the other side…I’m gonna follow Juwan’s lead and start dropping expletives in work calls and then just say “pardon my French, but it is what it is” :laughing:

Kidding, obviously, and not throwing shade on Juwan at all. Actually I think it’s funny how unfazed he was that he dropped that word in comparison to when he did it in that press conference.

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Hot take in response to some Reddit comments I’ve seen: Loyola wasn’t under seeded. The NET isn’t used directly for seeding, you use it to compare resumes. Or at least that’s what the committee is supposed to be using it for. Loyola’s resume does not line up with how good they are. It’s unfortunate for the higher seeded team they play, sure, but it’s not a “mistake” by the committee.

Here is their “similar resume” page per Torvik:

Average seed of 7.2 for the similar comps. I’ll go over it below, but I think the teams there that got higher seeds had solidly better resumes. Loyola had zero top 50 Torvik wins in the regular season and only 3 top 100 wins. Yes, you can only play who’s on your schedule. But I don’t see how you can seed them much higher than 7 or 8 with the resume that they have.

For reference, here are the extremely basic resumes for those similar resume teams from torvik. This is the super basic stuff, if you want to get more detailed you can click on the teams in that link above.

Loyola
Top 50 wins: 0
Top 100 wins: 3
Losses outside top 100: 1
Seed: 8

2019 Buffalo
Top 50 wins: 1
Top 100 wins: 5
Losses outside top 100: 2
Seed: 6

2019 Wofford
Top 50 wins: 0
Top 100 wins: 6
Losses outside top 100: 0
Seed: 7

2014 Gonzaga
Top 50 wins: 1
Top 100 wins: 10
Losses outside top 100: 2
Seed: 8

2017 St. Mary’s
Top 50 wins: 1
Top 100 wins: 5
Losses outside top 100: 0
Seed: 11

2008 Butler
Top 50 wins: 2
Top 100 wins: 6
Losses outside top 100: 2
Seed: 7

2013 St. Mary’s
Top 50 wins: 0
Top 100 wins: 3
Losses outside top 100: 1
Seed: 11

2009 Utah (Mountain West era)
Top 50 wins: 6
Top 100 wins: 9
Losses outside top 100: 1
Seed: 5

2017 Cincinnati
Top 50 wins: 5
Top 100 wins: 10
Losses outside top 100: 0
Seed: 6

2013 Memphis
Top 50 wins: 0
Top 100 wins: 6
Losses outside top 100: 0
Seed: 6

2010 Northern Iowa
Top 50 wins: 1
Top 100 wins: 10
Losses outside top 100: 3
Seed: 9

Call me crazy, but Loyola’s resume pretty clearly doesn’t match up with the similar ones who are seeded higher than them here. Counting all loses outside the top 100 the same would generally be an issue here, but actually only a single one of those losses came outside of the 101-199 range. 2010 Northern Iowa losing to #202 Evansville was the worst loss from any of these teams. I firmly believe the committee seeded Loyola properly based on the process that they’re supposed to be using here. That it screwed over Illinois just makes it that much better.

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Tough to compare in a COVID year though. They had one chance at a big win and it was on the road at the Trohl Center. I tend to agree with you because based on resume they are where they belonged but I wouldn’t be against a seed line or two bump for a MM with not great resume but fantastic metrics

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The tricky part is the committee claiming they seed more based on predictive metrics and select more based on the criteria you lay out.

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That’s a good point regarding COVID year. Perhaps a better comparison would be Loyola with this year’s 6 and 7 seeds?

Loyola
Top 50 wins: 0
Top 100 wins: 3
Losses outside top 100: 1
Seed: 8

UConn
Top 50 wins: 1
Top 100 wins: 8
Losses outside top 100: 0
Seed: 7

Oregon
Top 50 wins: 4
Top 100 wins: 13
Losses outside top 100: 0
Seed: 7

Florida
Top 50 wins: 5
Top 100 wins: 11
Losses outside top 100: 1
Seed: 7

Clemson
Top 50 wins: 8
Top 100 wins: 11
Losses outside top 100: 1
Seed: 7

USC
Top 50 wins: 5
Top 100 wins: 14
Losses outside top 100: 0
Seed: 6

San Diego State
Top 50 wins: 2
Top 100 wins: 8
Losses outside top 100: 0
Seed: 6

Texas Tech
Top 50 wins: 5
Top 100 wins: 5
Losses outside top 100: 0
Seed: 6

BYU
Top 50 wins: 2
Top 100 wins: 8
Losses outside top 100: 0
Seed: 6

Still seems like Loyola should have been behind all those teams.

Regarding @umhoops comment, that came from an official dude so I can’t say it isn’t true, but it seems like this would be the year to lean on that less, wouldn’t it?

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Also a team being under seeded, to me, means they are better than their seed. It doesn’t necessarily mean their resume is better than their seed.

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My take here is a counterpoint against the notion that the committee made a mistake with Loyola’s seeding, something I’ve seen on other sites. So when I say “underseeded” that’s more what I’m referring to if that helps you get what I mean more.

It took an ungodly amount of time to do these comments, please don’t crap on it too hard lol

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Ah okay. Under seeded to me doesn’t really mean the committee did something wrong. I just think their messaging is very inconsistent.

I’d say Oregon is underseeded too because they had so many injury issues and COVID issues. It doesn’t mean that they were incorrectly seeded though.

I misunderstood this comment at first. You’re saying the seeding and selection process is separate. Once they get the 68 teams in, they use different metrics from that point on.

I’m not sure what the weights are so I really can’t comment on that. I just have a hard time giving Loyola much higher than a 7 with what they had done to that point. That’s via the CursedBlue selection process, the only important one :wink:

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Supposedly… but Loyola looks seeded based on the metrics you referenced not the ones they claim to use.

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So if they leaned on predictive metrics to seed teams then Loyola should’ve been anywhere between a 3-5. They’re ranked high on predictive metrics.

True, but the point of predictive tools isn’t to seed teams. A predictive metric tells you how well a team has played against their schedule, it doesn’t tell you how strong their resume is. It’s part of why Torvik developed the Wins Above Bubble (WAB) metric, that is a much closer tool to what the NCAA would be trying to do when seeding teams. And according to WAB, FSU was 25th nationally, so a 4 seed is over-seeding them.

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Spolstra for assistant coach after Martelli leaves.

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The reply “Join the raids then” - LOL! Perfect.

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You mean secret head coach I assume

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On the topic of our Loyola discussion yesterday…

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