Assuming GR3 is our only lossWalton
Caris
Nik
Irvin
McGaryKameron Chatman as 6th man
disagree?
I really don’t see Zak as a 4 in any scenario, if Chatman is ready from day 1 he may start, but Im not inclined to believe Kam will be ready from day 1. I’ll say this, if Irvin starts at the 4 next year, it is going to be a very, very, long year in terms of rebounding and interior defense.
Assuming GR3 is our only lossWalton
Caris
Nik
Irvin
McGaryKameron Chatman as 6th man
disagree?
I really don’t see Zak as a 4 in any scenario, if Chatman is ready from day 1 he may start, but Im not inclined to believe Kam will be ready from day 1. I’ll say this, if Irvin starts at the 4 next year, it is going to be a very, very, long year in terms of rebounding and interior defense.
We see eye to eye here, Matt.
JB is not afraid of starting freshmen. I don’t see him easing Chatman into the role and IMO Chatman will be ready.
I think "tools" is a term that is overused, doesn't really mean much if not utilized. Quite frankly, Caris has probably been our worst perimeter defender this year. His closeouts are very nonchalant, he consistently gets lost on screens, and he often allows the offensive player too much space, doesn't seem to have awareness on that side of the court in general. Being so close to the action in Durham, I can honestly say that Caris' defensive effort was nothing short of pathetic.Apparently JB disagrees and thinks he is our best defensive performer, wonder where the disconnect is…
What JB says to the media publicly and what JB knows to be true internally are two entirely different things. I think we all know that generally speaking, most coaches, in particular a college coach, isn’t going to throw a kid under the bus. I recall at one point roughly 2-3 years ago during a post game press conf., JB referred to JMo as one of the most athletic players in the big ten. Now JMo is a decent athlete, maybe even slightly above average for his position, but there is no way JMo is in the upper tier of big ten athletes now, or at any time during his tenure at Michigan. Point is coach talk doesn’t really mean much in the grand scheme of things.
Ehh JB is pretty forthright in his pressers and I’ve never heard him engage in double speak. I generally believe he means what he says and thinks Caris is the best defender on the team.
As for next year,
I fully expect Caris to have off ball shooting ability. He should start. The sixth man idea works now because he can’t shoot as consistent
Kam isn’t going to be ready to start next year, this freshmen class (supposedly generational good) is confirming it. JB is going to put his best players on the floor and Irvin is in no way shape or form going to sit. We will give up a lot as far as defense (we would with Donnal or Chatman too) and rebounding but we should be so good offensively it won’t matter.
How does this freshman class have anything to do with whether or not Chatman will be ready to start next year?
Also, Jamal Crawford was the perfect 6th man (hence, he won 6th man of the year award). Caris, likewise, would be a perfect 6th man.
How does this freshman class have anything to do with whether or not Chatman will be ready to start next year?
Because Chatman isn’t going to give you the production on either side of the court that Walton, Levert, Nik and Irvin will give JB. If the best freshmen class in recent memory is struggling then I can assure you that our incoming class isn’t going to unseat any of our established talent. If Novak and GR3 can work at the 4 spot then I’m sure Irvin can do it for long stretches. It isn’t like he isn’t logging tons of minutes at that spot anyways…
Caris is simply going to be too good to not start. You’re not going to have your best or second best player coming of the bench, especially for a freshman.
That is an extremely flimsy premise, guestavo. Last year’s freshman class was nothing special and yet we had three impact freshmen in are starting 5.
Chatman at the 4 offers much better defensive production than Irvin does at the 4. There are plenty of minutes at the 1/2/3 for Caris, Nik, and Irvin. If Chatman comes in ready to contribute, which I think he will, then I see him starting.
I get your love for LeVert, but if McGary is returning, there is no way Caris is our best or 2nd best player.
Please provide me your ideal minutes breakdown if Morgan and GRIII are our only departures.
nm
The freshmen class year started because the alternatives were not nearly as good and in the case of Levert and Spike, freshmen themselves.
I seriously doubt Chatman comes in as good a defender as Zak will be next year. Zak is playing the other 3 (4 spot) right now and hasn’t had any noticeable trouble.
I was accounting for McGary (who knows how good he is after a back injury?), I think Stauskas is what he is as a player. Caris will definitely push.
Walton (25) Spike (15)
Caris (35) Chatman (5)
Nik (35) Irvin (5)
Irvin (30) Chatman (10)
McGary (25) Horford (10) Donnal (5)
Our 2s (specifically LeVert) can get minutes at the 1 in big lineups and we can run 2 PG lineups, in special situations. The 2 is easier to learn than the 3 so Chatman will start there and backup Irvin at the 4. McGary-Horford-Donnal become our three headed monster. I don’t see us trying the McGary at 4 experiment next year but maybe that is something to look out for? We have so many good players that minutes are honestly hard to find. Imagine if GR3 decided to come back 
More food for thought
Out of all the freshmen playing SIGNIFICANT minutes (15>), Zak Irvin is grading out pretty well offensively with a ORTG of 120.
Michigan’s Zak Irvin is a big wing/guard, and I wondered whether he was going to get stuck behind Nik Stauskas and Glenn Robinson. But what I forgot was that John Beilein really knows how to find shooters. Even at 6’6”, Irvin has a natural 3 point shot, and you can never have too many outside shooters. Irvin’s points were particularly valuable in the Minnesota game given that Glenn Robinson went down early with an injury.
Walton not so much.
Also was on the Syracuse board and came across this blurb about MCW and it seemed eerily similar in many ways to the criticisms we’ve been hearing about a certain player.
MICHAEL CARTER-WILLIAMSWaiting in the wings was a physical freak named Michael Carter-Williams. He was 6-5 with a near 7 foot wingspan. Despite his size he could penetrate the defense on the dribble. He could see the whole court and was a creative passer. And his size made him the prefect point at the top of the 2-3 zone. He was still young and learning. He got into a very public argument with the coach when he was pulled out of a game as freshman. He often penetrated too far into the defense and got trapped or jumped into the air without knowing what he was going to do when he got there. His outside shot was not reliable. He, too had his detractors, (one of them a close friend of mine)
Lol… You have Chatman only getting 15 minutes? Nothing more needs to be said. We have vastly different opinions on him. Guestavo, it is impossible to carry on a discussion with you because you are constantly changing your stances. Just recently you’ve said:
“Chatman is our stretch 4.”
“I think he’ll be a great stretch 4.”
“GR3 and Chatman aren’t 4s either but in JB offense, they are.”
“Chatman is known for his rebounding, mid range shooting and post up play… yeah sounds like a perimeter oriented forward to me.”
“Chatman/McGary with Horford, Donnal, Doyle, Irvin and Wilson as options.”
“I think Chatman is a stretch 4 his freshmen year…”
“Chatman isn’t a bad stretch 4, as I think he plays that freshmen year…”
What has made you cool on Chatman? He’s been nothing short of great this past month. I feel like you change your stance simply to argue.
Furthermore,
-You also think Stauskas has hit his ceiling? I don’t think he has.
-I’d love fore LeVert to keep improving as much as he has, but it is not as sure of a thing as you make it seem. Of course I expect everyone to improve, but I don’t see LeVert becoming a superstar like you predict.
-Also, you seem to love Irvin now. You gave me flack for suggesting Irvin has potential to leave after his sophomore year. He’s got the size and skillset to play SG at the next level, so I don’t how suggesting he may declare after his sophomore season is grounds for mocking me.
Do you not see where Chatman is getting minutes at the 4? And how many minutes do you think a true freshman is going to get? Irvin is averaging around 15 at the moment and so is every freshman not a top 5 pick. I originally was on the start Chatman bandwagon until I realized that Irvin plays the other 3 already and that JB isn’t going to play a true freshman over any of our potential pro prospects. I also didn’t project Mitch coming back until recently.
You tell me how Nik is going to improve his game? He isn’t going to raise his physical intangibles and he is already a pretty complete player.
You don’t agree with LeVert, well that is your opinion.
I like Irvin’s game but I don’t think he has potential to leave after his sophomore year. He needs to show more than just being a shooter. You’re going out on a limb even more with that prediction than I am with Caris.
So a couple weeks ago “Chatman will be a great stretch 4”, but because McGary is returning, he won’t be anymore? Becaue McGary is returning, Chatman is going to suck? That is almost as moronic as saying because this year’s freshman class is struggling, so will next years.
I never predicted Irvin would go to the NBA after his sophomore year, so let’s not put words in my mouth. There is a big difference between saying something will happen (you saying LeVert will go pro) and something COULD happen (me saying Irvin could go pro).
You don’t think Stauskas has ANY room for improvement? What the heck? You don’t think he can improve his defense, rebounding, or slashing skills? Ok…
No, Chatman will be a great stretch 4 just not good enough to supplant Irvin. And this freshman class isn’t struggling, it is on par for what you can expect from a freshman. 15-20 mpg is about what you can expect from a freshman on a winning team. It’s a good thing when you can have a extremely talented freshman coming off the bench. Think Marc Loving or Nigel Hayes this year but better.
I never said Levert will go pro but that I think he will surpass Nik as a more enticing pro prospect next year. Irvin is just a shooter at the moment and while I think he will diversify his game, I don’t think he will have the usage or volume shooting to entice scouts next year if he is sharing the ball with 3-4 other pro prospects.
No I don’t think Stauskas can improve those parts of his game enough to become commodities at the NBA level. Those deal with physical intagibles.
Here is how I see the minutes breaking down next year.
First, I think McGary is gone. Obviously, I wish that were not the case, but it probably is.
PG - Walton (30), Spike (10). Like Morris, Walton will surge in his second year.
SG - Nik (30), Caris (10)
SF - Irvin (25), Caris (15)
PF - Chatman (25), Donnal (15)
C - Horford (30), Donnal (10)
I have a feeling Wilson and Doyle redshirt, but one or both may be ready for some spot duty at the four (Wilson) and five (Doyle).
I also think unless Caris really improves his three point shooting, and really steps it up against stronger competition, Irvin may take his minutes. Compare Irvin’s games against Stanford and Minnesota with Caris’ games, and they are trending in opposite directions.
With that said, I’d be happy to have Caris’ as the 6th man off the bench who gives us instant offense. I think it might be his best role. I don’t think he’s ever going to be the PG, he’s not as good as Nik at the two, and I do think Irvin surpasses him at the three. But coming into the game off the bench as a guy who can have the ball in his hands a lot, and create a lot, will be a great role for him and will help the team.
Maybe the worst thing I’ve read on this forum.
NBAdraft.net, Realgm, ESPN and once they update, Draftexpress all say McGary returns.
2 freshmen getting the same minutes as 2 of our best players, laughable. A true freshman starting over a person with 3 years experience in the system, laughable.
Let’s not address that Caris had arguably THE best games against our best competition in Arizona and Duke. Nah, let’s praise Nik and Zak for scoring on cupcakes and mid tiers. His stat line against Florida St and Charlotte comparable to anything Zak has done all year. Also, why would Caris EVER play the 3 in our offense? LOL. He is a 1 or 2 through and through.
Let’s not forget that Morris was a 6’4’’ PG and nothing like Walton. Also ignore that Irvin has been receiving a good dose of his minutes at the 4 or that Nik went from the 2 to the 3 because JB said it’s a harder position to learn and meant for our more experienced players.
Also two random game sample size to confirm bias. Awesome.
First of all, your lack of respect for other posters demonstrates your immaturity. You can disagree with someone’s opinion without calling it “laughable.”
No one has any idea what McGary will do right now, including you. But he’s old for his class, and if he still has a shot at late first round guaranteed money by the time the draft rolls around (which I think he does), there has to be some concern on his part that if he comes back and injures himself again, he will be costing himself millions of dollars. We all hope he comes back, but there’s absolutely no way to predict what he’ll do right now.
Where do I have two freshmen getting “the same minutes as 2 of our best players?” Are you talking about Donnal? There’s a huge difference between a true freshman and a guy who will have spent a full year learning our system and putting on weight. Donnal is a pretty well regarded recruit (#111 on Rivals) who has the size to play the four and five. Obviously, his minutes are predicated on McGary leaving. If Mitch stays, I think Donnal plays maybe 10 minutes a game next year, and then his role increases in future seasons. If Mitch leaves, Horford is really the only big we have next year, unless we plan to play Doyle and Wilson right away. We didn’t recruit Donnal for him to sit on the bench. He’ll play.
I agree Caris played very well on offense against Duke (though his defense was pretty bad in that game). And he was very good against Arizona. But I think you would be hard pressed to deny that other than against Holy Cross, he hasn’t been real good lately. Irvin, on the other hand, is gaining confidence and starting to shoot the ball very well. That doesn’t mean Caris won’t start playing at a really high level again, and it doesn’t mean Irvin won’t have a slump at some point, it’s just an observation about how things are trending at the moment. And if you look at the two guys’ recruiting profiles, it’s not real surprising, as LeVert was a late bloomer who committed to Ohio before their coach left for Illinois, and Irvin is a five star recruit who was player of the year in Indiana.
Your real argument with my projected distribution of minutes is simply your belief that Caris is better than Irvin, and my belief that because of his superior shooting ability, Irvin may start stealing those minutes. We’ll see, and you may well be right. I don’t really care if I’m right or wrong - I think both guys are talented and I trust our coaches to put the right guys out there. But I do think - and most people think - Chatman is going to come in and start at the four right away. He’s got 1-2 inches on Irvin, he’s a better athlete (not a way better athlete, but a better one), and he’s got more of a post up game. I think it’s pretty clear he’s going to see significant minutes at the four. And why would it be surprising for the #29 overall Rivals’ recruit to play a lot in his freshman year? It wouldn’t.
Why would Caris ever play the three? Because he currently doesn’t shoot it well enough to play the two (43% overall, 36% from three), and he’s not a PG, but he is a very capable driver. Regardless of who has more pro potential (and again, I think it’s Nik anyway), you really think Caris is going to beat out Nik at the two next year? The same guy averaging 17.8 a game this year, shooting it very well, and also passing it very well? No chance. So then it’s Caris, Irvin and Chatman for the 3/4 positions. And I think Caris, because he’s versatile enough to handle either the 2 or 3, will back up at both, play a lot of minutes, and be the go-to scorer when he’s in the game. Not sure how that’s a big insult to him.
Finally, I’m not saying Walton is physically similar to Morris. I’m saying it took a year for Morris to mentally absorb the college game, and make the proper adjustments, and I think it will be the same for Walton. Another similarity is that when Morris was a freshman, Manny had the ball in his hands most of the time. Right now, other guys are handling it as much as Walton, but I do think by next year he’ll be the primary ballhandler and that will make a big difference in his game.
I understand you love LeVert. No problem - I like him a lot too, and he’s really turning into a nice player. But as a Michigan fan (I assume you are one), don’t you think it’s a little counterproductive to denigrate the rest of our players every time someone suggests LeVert isn’t Michael Jordan?
We are seeing two different things on the court. The future will show one of us to be right, though we are on the same team and hopefully the end result makes us both happy.
This isn’t a Caris vs Irvin thing, more so a statement that Chatman isn’t on their level next year. If you noticed I have Nik, Caris and Irvin as our “Big 3” next year with McGary (prays) and Walton providing supporting roles.
What is lately? It’s not like the sample size is big enough for that to really mean anything other than drinking the kool-aid prematurely.
I’m not sure where you’ve heard Chatman will start since the other UofM forums have talked about Irvin extensively at the 4, you know the position Zak plays right now?
You do realize the three position requires you to shoot BETTER than the two positions? If you can’t shoot from the top then JB surely isn’t going to move you to the wing, where Nik is doing quite well. NIK PLAYS THE 3. IRVIN PLAYS THE 4/3. Why do you keep saying beat out for spot when they aren’t even playing the same positions?
Where are you getting that Chatman is a better athlete than Irvin? Pretty much every scouting report and video confirms he is a “solid athlete.” Why would I not think a top 50 true freshmen is coming in getting 25-30 mpg? Maybe because every year prior would confirm that most of them receive 15-20 mpg in their first year and don’t start over guys with 2/3 years of experience unless they are one and done. Chatman isn’t one and done.
You do realize that in order to take advantage of your mental growth you need physical tools? No doubt, Walton will be MUCH better but he isn’t first round 6’4’’ PG good next year.
Last, I don’t “down” our other players, simply I think Caris has more natural tools that if cultivated can pay bigger dividends than anyone on our roster. Chatman is in that same category but he is just a freshman. Irvin is as well but needs to gain an all-around game. That’s it. They have higher ceilings than anyone on this and next years team not named GR3.
It’s going to be very difficult to keep Chatman out of the starting lineup IMO. To good of a ball handler and passer. Seems that Irvin is going to have to diversify his game to match the many skills of Chatman. Not sure he is that type of multi-skilled player.