A look at Beilein's recruiting from 2012-2016

Recruiting
1

I see in remarks in almost every recruiting thread arguing Beilein’s lack of recruiting success. When JB was hired it was said that he’d never be a good, let alone great, recruiter. So I decided to take a look at his classes based on Rivals rankings.

2012:
Spike Albrecht - 3* only offer App State - Late Add when Trey was looking to leave - Solid 4 year contributor
Mitch McGary - 4* - 1st Round Pick
GR3 - 5* - 2nd Round Pick
Nik - 4* - Lottery Pick
Caris - 3* - Solid 4 year starter - Probably NBA Career

2013:
Donnal - 4* Top 100 - TBD
Irvin - 5* Top 100 - TBD
Walton - 4* Top 100 - TBD

2014:
Chatman - 4* Top100 - TBD
Wilson - 4* Top100 - TBD
Doyle - 3* - Freshman Starter
Rahk - 3* - Showed solid signs in minutes after Caris injury
Dawkins - 3* - Points to solid career
Hatch - Self-Explanatory

2015:
Wagner 4* Top100 type - TBD

2016:
Teske - 4* - Beat Ohio St

So Beilein’s 3* recruits are Hatch, Doyle and 4 late adds when people declared or transferred and a scholarship opened up.
I’d say he’s done an excellent job of identifying contributors with his late additions that fit his system. He has also landed (2) 5* recruits and (8) 4* recruits. I’d say that’s he’s become a pretty decent recruiter at Michigan. Sure it’s frustrating to miss out on Kennard/Thornton/Bates-Diop/etc. But recruiting has a lot more misses than hits for anybody not named Duke, UK and Arizona.

I think it comes down to expectations for recruiting. Beilein isn’t gonna land UK/Duke type classes because he doesn’t have a USA Basketball or World Wide Wes Connection. However, I’d say his stats show that he is doing a really good job on the recruiting trail. My opinion.

2
Sure wish we had more in-state guys. 4 classes - 1 player from Michigan (Walton)

Now this I will defend JB on…not entirely his fault here. The local economy and resulting population shift has dwindled the in state talent to the point where its almost laughable. Up until the mid 90s, Detroit in particular, and the state as a whole, was a talent producing machine.

And when the state does produce talent, their dads are coaches somewhere (Zeigler, McCallum) or they all play the same position and are relatively the same size and player (Walton, Jackson, Morris).

3
Sure wish we had more in-state guys. 4 classes - 1 player from Michigan (Walton)

Now this I will defend JB on…not entirely his fault here. The local economy and resulting population shift has dwindled the in state talent to the point where its almost laughable. Up until the mid 90s, Detroit in particular, and the state as a whole, was a talent producing machine.

4

Sure wish we had more in-state guys. 4 classes - 1 player from Michigan (Walton)

5
See the thing is though, you need the personnel in order to have the option of having a more defensive oriented 3/4.......and we don't. So we can hypothetically say JB would be more flexible in that regard, but his philosophical approach to basketball is simple........shooters at the expense of basically anything that is defensive in nature. On a functional basis, his recruiting precludes the team from having that flexibility. From that standpoint, I think a logical deduction is to say JB isn't flexible in that regard.

Eh, that’s into semantics at that point. Just because he has a preference doesn’t mean he doesn’t have the flexibility to do it. But definitely a chicken and egg situation.

6

Matt, you’re ignoring the caliber of player we’ve been chasing, and our competition for that player. We didn’t have to compete against the likes of Duke and Kentucky for Burke or Stauskas. Heck, we didn’t even have to compete against OSU for Burke; they never offered him.

You’re also ignoring the fact that elite recruits want immediate playing time. When Booker and Blackmon committed, prevailing sentiment was that Stauskas was at least a three year player, and the Harrison twins were one and done. It turned out to be just the opposite. Jalen Brunson was not going to come here to sit behind Derrick Walton for two years - he’ll start immediately at Nova, the same way Booker and Blackmon did this year.

During this time, we’ve also intentionally NOT offered many guys who would have seemingly committed to us: Matt McQuaid, Jordan Barnett, Trevon Blueitt (after he decommitted from UCLA - we did not get involved again), Jevon Bess, Sedrick Barefield, Kyle Ahrens, Kyle Guy, Tyler Williams, Matthew Moyer, AJ Turner, etc., etc. In the past, guys like that would have been top targets for us.

Ultimately, as I’ve argued before, this is where I think we end up - if we do NOT end up with any of our top remaining targets for 2016 (Langford, Battle, Winston, Thornton, Towns), I think we will return to our old approach - look for hidden gem, elite talents in the guys ranked from 50-150, where the competition for their services isn’t nearly as tough. With that said, other coaches are catching on. After Burke was so successful here, it would have been a PR nightmare for Thad Matta if Towns had committed to Michigan and starred here without ever receiving an OSU offer.

In any event, even though recruiting hasn’t been awesome, we nevertheless landed two top 100 talents in Chatman and Wilson, and let’s see what Robinson and Wagner bring to the table next year before passing judgment on this class. The fact that Chatman didn’t play very well this year doesn’t detract from the fact that when we landed him, he was a five star recruit and we beat out Arizona for him.

7

“How is it you can label JB flexible in one breath, only to later concede that his style doesn’t utilize a true post player?”

Of course you can be flexible in all sorts of ways that happen to omit a single variable, right? But–to the case at hand–people repeatedly comment that Beilein has had to try all kinds of things, to be extremely adaptable in his stays at so many places. And this year, with the injuries, he was dusting off plays he had once used at Iona (was it?)

I mean–yeah–he has a basic offense. . . But (put it another way) it’s not hard to see that a style that emphasizes flow and (in theory) five purely interchangeable parts, shooters at every position, is both by its nature a flexible one AND likely to de-emphasize the one lunky guy who cements himself in the post. I defer to almost everyone here where hoops theory and playmaking are concerned, but don’t think I am getting this wrong. Let me know.

8
But can anyone truly say JB is flexible enough to put a non 5 on the floor that is a poor shooter, but would bolster rebounding and/or defense?

If that would improve the team, sure. JB did state that Mitch was going to play the 4, and GR3 the 3, two seasons ago. Of course, we didn’t get to see it in action due to Mitch’s injury, and one could (very cynically) argue that JB had an ulterior motive to saying it (namely, keeping those guys in school another year), but…the fact is he did say it was the plan.

Personally, I think it’s hard to argue against the model of '12-'13 Michigan, '13-'14 Michigan, and '14-'15 Wisconsin. But if it would improve the team given a particular roster configuration, I absolutely think he would do it.

See the thing is though, you need the personnel in order to have the option of having a more defensive oriented 3/4…and we don’t. So we can hypothetically say JB would be more flexible in that regard, but his philosophical approach to basketball is simple…shooters at the expense of basically anything that is defensive in nature. On a functional basis, his recruiting precludes the team from having that flexibility. From that standpoint, I think a logical deduction is to say JB isn’t flexible in that regard.

9
But can anyone truly say JB is flexible enough to put a non 5 on the floor that is a poor shooter, but would bolster rebounding and/or defense?

If that would improve the team, sure. JB did state that Mitch was going to play the 4, and GR3 the 3, two seasons ago. Of course, we didn’t get to see it in action due to Mitch’s injury, and one could (very cynically) argue that JB had an ulterior motive to saying it (namely, keeping those guys in school another year), but…the fact is he did say it was the plan.

Personally, I think it’s hard to argue against the model of '12-'13 Michigan, '13-'14 Michigan, and '14-'15 Wisconsin. But if it would improve the team given a particular roster configuration, I absolutely think he would do it.

10

That’s pretty much the bottom line for me…how the hell are you the best team in basketball over a 2 year stretch, and yet the recruiting actually regresses? I can see maintaining the status quo of a 2013 year ( I admit that 2012 type recruiting years just aren’t realistic) where you get 1 upper tier guy (Walton), one above average guy (Irvin), and one project (Donnal), but in 2 years we’ve gone from that to nothing but projects. Something doesn’t add up

11

I hesitate to even weigh in on this debate because people on both sides lose their minds and try to completely mischaracterize the other side’s point.

Also, let me state that I think JB has done a decent job of recruiting over the last 6 years, particularly in identifying mid-ranked guards and wings, who fit his system well. Where he has struggled is with the higher ranked big men.

Here is a look at how his classes ranked according to the 247 composite averages:

2010: 47th (hardaway, Smote, Horford)
2011: 26th (Trey, Brundidge, Beifeldt)
2012: 7th (Glen, Mitch, Nik, Spike, Caris)
2013: 11th (Zak, Derrick, Donnal)
2014: 27th (Chatman, Doyle, Wilson, MAAR, Dawkins, Hatch)
2015: 97th (Wagner)

So there is a lot of success in their and a few misses sprinkled in. I think where people have found criticism (including me) is the seeming failure to capitalize on the on court success in 2013 and 2014 with top notch classes in 2014, 2015 and/or 2016. We have some nice players in those classes, but no instant impact guys, or elite level talents, yet.

Recruiting is a what have you done for me lately business. If we are going to compete for championships every few years, we need more of those elite level guys than we have brought in so far in 2014-16.

12

I think flexibility with JB is limited to the perimeter in terms of offense being ran through PnR vs off ball motion. But can anyone truly say JB is flexible enough to put a non 5 on the floor that is a poor shooter, but would bolster rebounding and/or defense?

13

The reality is, other than DeShawn Sims and Mitch McGary, we haven’t really had any big men with the ability to score with their back to the basket. Sims got plenty of touches in the post; McGary got some last year before his season ended prematurely, and who knows how many he would have gotten had he been healthy and played all year.

Over the years, we’ve certainly tried to recruit post players who play with their backs to the basket - Cody Zeller and Caleb Swanigan come immediately to mind, as does Mason Plumlee. We just haven’t been successful, and I’m sure some of that is that our offense is (correctly) perceived as one that favors guards and wings.

In 2013 and 2014, it was pretty hard to criticize our offense. The only team to win as many NCAA tournament games as us during that stretch was Florida, we put five guys in the NBA (Trey, Tim, Glenn, Nik, Mitch), and our offense was exceptionally good.

I’d also suggest that going forward, our big man situation looks a lot more promising than it has in the past. McGary was our only credible post recruit. Morgan was very good last year, but undersized. Horford was decent at best. McLimans was not good, Smote was weak, and Bielfeldt was undersized. All of Doyle, Wilson, Donnal, Wagner and Teske are bigger, longer, and much higher ranked recruits than our bigs of the past 4-5 years.

People want “instant impact,” dominant big guys right off the bat, but the reality is that unless you’re recruiting five star guys (who stay one year, or, if you’re really lucky, two years - see Cody Zeller), it takes some time for players to develop. Frank Kaminsky is a perfect example of that. By the time he’s a junior and senior, I think we’re all going to be pretty happy with Doyle as a consistent scoring threat down low, and a solid rebounder.

And, sometimes guys just don’t develop. Lots of Michigan fans were up in arms that we weren’t able to get Amir Williams. How did that work out for OSU the past four years? That guy was nothing special at all.

14

McGary for example. Go back and look at his 2012-13 tournament games (which I have, recently). He scored a lot of points on putbacks. He did that through his athleticism. Whatever offense you run, there will be missed shots.
I do accept that just as the sky is blue, Beilein will never feed the post. I tried to convey that in a previous post in a way that said “this is just how it’s going to be” but that came off, to some, as a criticism. I think some feeding the post would be good. But then, the vicious circle happens. I’m very sorry, but Morgan and Horford dropped a lot of passes and didn’t always finish well. Have we or have we not seen Doyle drop his share of passes? Does that bring more touches for the guy? That’s all I’m saying. I think Doyle would be the guy for us or will be with just better finishing ability–except that that does n’t solve the rebounding issue.
I think the rebounding issue is bigger, since we can always get scoring. Just keep the other team off the offensive glass.

15
How is it you can label JB flexible in one breath, only to later concede that his style doesn't utilize a true post player?

Just because JB didn’t utilize a post player, doesn’t mean he hasn’t or can’t. DeShawn saw plenty of the ball in the post, and I’m willing to bet McGary would have. If JB gets guys that improve the efficiency of the offense by handling the ball on the low block, JB will structure the offense that way. Granted, it’s a bit of chicken and egg…he hasn’t recruited guys that like per se…in part because he doesn’t prove very often that’s how he’d run an offense…but I personally believe he’s quite flexible. For proof, I look at how we utilized P&R prior to Darius Morris…then with Darius, Trey, and Nik…then last year.

16

What is post play though? Is post play having a big sit on the block and feeding him possession after possession, or is post play feeding a big off of P&R, drop offs and offensive boards?

I think it can be both…some coaches like to keep the floor open…heck, Duke has one of the best post players in the country but it wasn’t until he was used in P&R situations did Duke really take advantage of Wisconsin’s D. And sure, you can point to Karl Towns being a really, really good post player…but he isn’t the rule, he is the exception.

Point is, JB prefers a style that utilizes less on the block post play and more post play that revolves around rolling bigs to the hoop or drop offs on the drive. The fact that JB prefers to not have a big on the block a majority of the time does not make him inflexible.

JB like to use his post players differently and feels it’s a better way of running offense.

17

We’re not Duke, Kentucky, Kansas, UCLA, Arizona, North Carolina…but that’s only 6 teams (or so). We can stick our brand in the same sentence as Indiana, Ohio St, Wisconsin, MSU, Syracuse, Villanova, Georgetown, Florida, Louisville, etc and push for Top 50 and Top 100 guys without a blink of an eye.

Beilein era has been a major positive in the history of Michigan basketball. I’d like to see him make a push to finish his career strong with a legendary finish by continuing to adapt to recruiting just a little bit to get better players.

18

Harry Haller wrote: “I don’t look at it as a binary operation, that one has to think of Beilein either as perfect or as terrible. I don’t reject his recruiting style of his coaching style, but because I don’t do that, I also don’t go to the opposite extreme. I like some things about him and don’t like others–that’s not so hard to me.”

I appreciate this post. And I think that some of the more vociferous critics here are presently tempering their observations a little, maybe realizing that simply antagonizing everyone tends to be a dead end. But I do think some of these conversations tend to dry up whether you’re temperate or outrageous in how you express them.

To me A) you either accept that there was really top-15 talent here this year before attrition–even with it–and then you’re pretty much disqualified from excessive slagging of Beilein, or you don’t. And B) you accept that he’s getting one (possibly more) “difference-makers” annually even when they’re not McDonald’s All Americans. Glenn, Trey, Mitch, Nick–all these guys qualify, as does a Mr. Indiana.

I just don’t think there’s much to criticize, especially with a clever-a** coach who believes in school.

I also think that Beilein’s pretty flexible, a consummate shape-shifter, which makes him a more difficult target. But it could be that his offensive approach tends to preclude our getting many banging, basket-facing big men or heavy rebounders. And I personally am okay with that if it continues to give us offenses that lead the country–or close to it-stats-wise.

To put all this another way, while there might be people here who don’t like Beilein’s style, but there is no sane AD in the country who is critical of the results so far, including this year, given all the befell the program with attrition and health issues.

19

How is it you can label JB flexible in one breath, only to later concede that his style doesn’t utilize a true post player?

20

It’s tricky. We made it to the national championship game without being able to keep opponents off the glass. Then we lost due to many putbacks by Behanan. Different people will interpret that differently.
However, about Beilein’s offense, I would say this:
a. I’m happy to just go with it, but it works a lot better with better talent. Burke and Stauskas and Hardaway ran a slick offense that was awesome to watch and that was as good as any I saw in this year’s tournament. LeVert and Irvin and Spike? Not as much–even if I do appreciate them (and I know LeVert was out for half the year).
b. it’s not even the issue. Defensive rebounding is the big for us–the only way the offense can have an effect on that is if our personnel who help the offense physically cannot rebound, as you brought up above. But it’s not how we play offense, but how we play D.

As far as his style goes, I appreciate his very organized X’s and O’s approach that gets a lot out of players and he does as well with the talent he gets as everyone. He got one Mitch McGary, and I’d like to see more, even one who wasn’t ranked 2 at the time we signed him. For the record, I like the signing of Teske.