Zak Irvin is not our 4 right now. Zak Irvin is our 3 and is forced to play 4 when GRIII sits because we don’t have other options. We are not going to play Irvin out of position next year just because we are playing him out of position this year in crunches. Chatman will play a GRIII role (but less minutes) while Irvin plays the 3 and backup 4 (like this year). I think one of Irvin/LeVert start and one is the 6th man (like the other poster said, this isn’t a knock on them). I’m not sure which will play which role yet, but considered LeVert can come in and play 1, 2, or 3 and create his own offense, I’d like that in a 6th man role.
Darius Morris was not a 6’4, 1st round pick PG his 2nd year either. Regardless, that wasn’t the posters point. Our past two starting PGs have had MUCH better 2nd seasons than 1st seasons. Darius Morris went from average to NBA draft pick. Trey Burke went from really good to best player in the nation. All the other poster was saying is that we should expect Walton to be noticeably better next year, not compare him to Morris.
Stauskas came in as a freshman and got immediate minutes and an eventually won the starting position over Vogrich. Aside from that… in the past 6 seasons, these are the true freshmen who have played 20+mpg: Douglass, Novak, Morris, Hardaway Jr., Burke, Stauskas, GRIII.
Stauskas, GRIII, Burke, and Hardaway Jr. all played 30+ mpg as true freshmen.
Michigan’s weakest position next year is the 4. I think we can all agree there. Irvin can play the 4, sure, but he is a SG/SF, not a stretch 4. Kameron Chatman comes in as the 29th overall recruit and is perfect for the stretch 4, our weakest and shallowest position. You don’t see him getting more than 15mpg??
Comparing across teams isn’t an exact science so keep that in mind.
Guys like Zak Irvin who play fewer minutes have inflated advanced stats
I need to buy a KenPom subscription and compare his metrics but I will and further update the fallacies being fostered in this environment
With that said
The myth that Caris is our worst defender has gotten out of hand considering he is our best wing defender along with Glenn and it isn’t even close… sure he makes mistakes but that speaks to how great he COULD be on that end. He is also our best rebounding guard.
Spike isn’t significantly worse than Walton on defense and much better offensively
Irvin is offensively amazing in the minutes he gets but his defense is poor
Glenn is our best two way player and Nik is our number one option… I expect Glenn’s ORTG to keep climbing however
The argument for Caris PG is probably to late in the season but had we done it early in the year, I’d say he could have been as good as Walton if not better. Walton seems to finally be clicking on initiating the offense.
Poor eFG and TS % are absolutely murdering Walton and Caris’ ORTG. Shooting has to be THE thing stressed over the summer with both of them.
Defensive rating isn’t really the best metric. It’s mostly based on rebounds, blocks and steals. Which is fine, but just know what you are looking at.
Defensive Rating
Just as Oliver’s Offensive Rating represents points produced by the player per 100 possessions consumed, his Defensive Rating estimates how many points the player allowed per 100 possessions he individually faced while on the court.
The core of the Defensive Rating calculation is the concept of the individual Defensive Stop. Stops take into account the instances of a player ending an opposing possession that are tracked in the boxscore (blocks, steals, and defensive rebounds), in addition to an estimate for the number of forced turnovers and forced misses by the player which aren’t captured by steals and blocks.
The formula for Stops is:
Stops = Stops1 + Stops2
where:
Stops1 = STL + BLK * FMwt * (1 - 1.07 * DOR%) + DRB * (1 - FMwt)
FMwt = (DFG% * (1 - DOR%)) / (DFG% * (1 - DOR%) + (1 - DFG%) * DOR%)
DOR% = Opponent_ORB / (Opponent_ORB + Team_DRB)
DFG% = Opponent_FGM / Opponent_FGA
Stops2 = (((Opponent_FGA - Opponent_FGM - Team_BLK) / Team_MP) * FMwt * (1 - 1.07 * DOR%) + ((Opponent_TOV - Team_STL) / Team_MP)) * MP + (PF / Team_PF) * 0.4 * Opponent_FTA * (1 - (Opponent_FTM / Opponent_FTA))^2
Also necessary is the calculation of Stop%, which is the rate at which a player forces a defensive stop as a percentage of individual possessions faced (essentially the inverse of Floor%, but for defenders):
Stop% = (Stops * Opponent_MP) / (Team_Possessions * MP)
With those numbers in hand, individual Defensive Rating can be computed:
Here’s the reality - you can claim that Caris, GR3, Walton, etc. is the best perimeter defender, but that is akin to saying Graham Glasgow was the football team’s best interior lineman. In essence, all that translates to is “he is the best of the worst”
DRTG is the best metric I can find that isn't behind a paywall, if you know something better for free I'd love to check it out?
I know the NBA has DRAPM but I don’t know if that exist for college?
As for your claim MattD, that is more a coaching philosophy thing than anything to do with individual players…
Could be, but the point remains that none of our perimeter defenders are even average if we’re being honest.
I’d disagree, put our wings in Matta’s system and they’d be excellent. You can’t teach tools and physical profile but that is where coaching has to come in and teach technique and understanding that side of the floor. Also DRTG, though not perfect, would say Caris and Glenn aren’t any noticeable different than most name wings on D.
I think Glenn is a great defender. Read the article Dylan linked. He is a great defender in spite of our system.
Caris? I think he is average and getting by on physical gifts but the mental aspect isn’t there yet, hence the missed assignments and being out of place again and again. Thing with Caris is that he should be a lockdown defender and isn’t but then again he has the build of a HS freshman and is only 19 so that will come…
GR3 has been a better perimeter defender than I anticipated, that much I will concede, but to classify him as a great defender is kind of ridiculous, especially if you place post defense/rebounding/boxing out into the equation. If we’re talking defense in a strict sense(IE no rebounding/box out), GR3 does a good job of being close enough to close out on shooter, but far enough to prevent a blow by. However, he doesn’t apply ball pressure and generate TOs, which are 2 very important elements of being a great on ball perimeter defender, such as Craft/Scott. His post defense is quite bad, he consistently allows post players to establish position deep in the post, and does not jump to contest shots…ever (although I think this is coaching as Horford & Morgan do the same, but Mitch does for whatever reason). I don’t even have to address rebounding, GR3 has all the “tools” as you would say, but little in the way of production, especially on the defensive boards.
Caris - at this point it’s not even worth discussion, he’s simply not a good defender in any sense of the word.
I think we should all really enjoy this year of having Nik Stauskas in a Wolverine uniform. I am becoming more convinced that he will leave after this year. There will be some team at the later end of round one that would love to develop him going forward. He undoubtedly will begin to loudly hear about his pro “potential.”
That is why I would really like us to be pursuing a wing in 2015. Nik, Caris, and Zak all have potential to be gone two years from now.
Big combo guard > wing but maybe we mean the same thing? I rather have a Nik/Caris than a Tim as far as versatility unless they’re a pro like Tim of course
For example Perry Dozier Jr over Dwayne Bacon if we get to choose
so two 6’4’’ and up combos and a true big?
All of these guys are 6’4’’ and up and have ability to play PG to SF
Perry Dozier Jr, Jalen Coleman, Justin Simon, Haanif Cheatnam, Antonio Blakeney, Luke Kennard, William Jackson, Tyler Dorsey, AJ Turner
Then again, a late bloomer project might surface in the spring
Wonder about our interest in Dozier now after his second major injury? Can’t see Coleman projecting as anything more than a combo, as he seems to be 6’2" at best. Hope that Turner is continuing to progress, as he would jump at an offer. Kennard has exploded his profile, and will probably be out of reach now.
Wonder about our interest in Dozier now after his second major injury? Can't see Coleman projecting as anything more than a combo, as he seems to be 6'2" at best. Hope that Turner is continuing to progress, as he would jump at an offer. Kennard has exploded his profile, and will probably be out of reach now.
I haven’t seen DOzier listed below 6’4’’ and as high as 6’6’’ now
I actually like Kennard the least out of him, Dozier and Coleman
It’s a shame that Horford doesn’t merit any love as a potential starter, to the extent that a true freshman who hasn’t even stepped on campus yet is being touted over a fifth year senior. Probably not going to happen, but I’d love to see McGary and Horford start as bigs, with Donnal, Chatman and maybe Doyle backing them up, depending on who develops. Walton at PG with Albrecht behind him, and Stauskas, LeVert and Irvin rotating at the 2/3. Not sure where Hatch and Wilson will fit in…they may both redshirt, but Wilson might surprise.
