First, as I look at our potential roster in 2015, we’re going to need an infusion of wing scoring. I do not think Stauskas will play four years. Indeed, we will be lucky if he’s back next fall, as I think he’s going to project to be a late first/early second round pick this year. But that’s a different discussion.
Heading into 2015, I see three players (Irvin, Levert, Chatman) to man the shooting guard and small forward positions. Given the type of offense we run, I think we need to grab at least two talented wing recruits in 2015. Fortunately, we are in on a number of players, like Coleman, Kennard, PJ Dozier (who I think can play the two), and there seem to be some Plan B guys emerging too. Perhaps Eric Davis can also play the two, though I am not sure how interested he is in staying in state. I think wing recruiting has to be the priority, and will be.
At the point, I’m sure we would happily take Brunson, and we would probably play Davis/Dozier at point if we can’t get Brunson and can get 1-2 more wings.
As far as the big men, here is how I see it:
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If we are in position to land a Diamond Stone, Stephen Zimmerman, or Elijah Thomas, of course you do it. That’s a no-brainer. And of course you continue recruiting those guys, unless you know for sure there’s no chance of getting them. With that said, I’ll make two points about 5-star big men: (1) most of them end up staying one year in college, so you don’t build a program around guys like that - they are more the icing on the cake than a foundation; (2) some of these guys are simply guys we can’t recruit, because they come with price tags. When you see Josh Jackson head to Kentucky or Kansas in 2016, for example, keep that in mind. McGary was a rare get - he was good friends with Novak, he’s got a stable, two parent family that isn’t looking for a handout, and he seems to genuinely enjoy the college experience. Not many five star bigs have that mindset.
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Once you get outside the realm of five star big men - the type that can both score and play great defense - like a McGary, or this year an Embiid - usually you’re talking about kids that have some strong attributes, but lack other skills. With our coaches, we seem to prefer guys with skill (Doyle, Donnal, Wilson) over guys who are athletic, but lack skill (Amir Williams, for example - though we did offer him, or a Jaylen Johnson, though again we were interested). Much of the debate on this board now seems to be focused on this issue - many people believe we need athletic, defensive-oriented big men, as opposed to the type we’re recruiting.
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I’m not sure I agree with that. I think most of our defensive issues over the years have involved undersized fours guarding bigger teams. For example, Novak and Robinson. Even then, when we played Florida in the tourney last year, Erik Murphy (a skilled four with about 2-3 inches on Robinson) did absolutely nothing. In college, the great big men normally don’t stay for more than a year. You don’t typically need a huge shot blocking presence because Patrick Ewing (for example) will score 30 on you if you don’t have that. Over the past 5-6 years, the only bigs that I remember really having big offensive games against us were guys like Sullinger, Blake Griffin, and Cody Zeller - all five star guys. (And, keep in mind, we recruited Zeller, all of the Plumlee kids, Payne, etc. - just didn’t get them). I think controlling the glass is a far bigger issue for us than worrying about some superstar center going for 30 points on us. That rarely happens.
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What I see right now is that by 2015, we will have the size to match up with most teams. Wilson and Donnal have way more height than Novak and Robinson. Those guys, and Doyle, will be able to match up pretty well with other bigs when it comes to size.
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Now, will we lack athletic shotblockers? Probably. Is that a huge deal? I’m not overly convinced it is. Again, if you can get a kid like a Zimmerman, who projects to be great on both ends of the court, that’s a no-brainer and I’m sure our coaches will continue recruiting Zimmerman unless they have reason to think they have zero shot. But does it make sense to sacrifice offense to get a guy like an Amir Williams, or Jaylen Johnson? Do you have to have a guy like that to win big?
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Personally, I don’t think you do. We made the title game last year without a great shotblocking presence. McGary was a strong rebounder in the tourney, and blocked some shots, but was hardly a defensive enforcer. Zeller, for example, had a pretty easy time scoring against him when we played Indiana. When Duke won it in 2010, for example, who did they have defensively in the paint? I can’t really recall anyone special. Similarly, a team like Butler made back-to-back title games with no one. Even a UNC in 2005, when they beat Illinois (another perimeter oriented team with no real big men), they had Sean May - a great scorer down low, but not athletic at all and not a defensive presence.
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Think about it this way - what if you took a team loaded with great perimeter players (like we have been lately), and gave them the big men Wisconsin usually trots out there. Could you win big with that team? I would argue yes. Heck, Wisconsin usually wins a lot of games in that situation even without the perimeter stars. Similarly, what about Notre Dame’s current team? If you give them our perimeter players (Robinson, Stauskas, Levert, Irvin, Walton), and throw in their bigs (who I would argue are better than ours, especially without Mitch), do you have a really good team? I think you do.
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To me, the main thing here is that our big men (Donnal, Doyle, Wilson) do a few things - learn how to play great position defense, really rebound well, and of course develop on the offensive end so they are guys you have to cover. If that happens, but none of them become elite shotblockers, I think we’re fine and we’ll continue to win at a very high level.
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Finally, as I look back at 2011 and 2012, it just gives me that much more confidence about the guys we’ve already signed. In 2011, we turned into a great basketball team after we beat MSU on the road - blowing out Tennessee in the tourney before losing by 2 to a very good (and #1 seeded) Duke team. In 2012, we won a share of the Big Ten title with two #1 seeds (OSU and MSU). In those seasons, we used Morgan (undersized), Smote (not very tough at all), Novak (extremely undersized), and Horford (freshman in 2011, didn’t play in 2012 after getting hurt early) as our frontlines. And frankly, other than Morris, Burke and Hardaway, the supporting perimeter talent isn’t nearly what we have now. No one would argue that Douglas and Novak are as good as Robinson and Stauskas, and that’s not even counting Levert and Irvin. With that as context, I feel very good about our coaches developing Wilson, Donnal and Doyle into good big men. Are we going to be more of an offensive-oriented team that focuses more on shooting than athletic defensive play? Yep, probably so. Will that prevent us from being a top 10-20 team during the next few years? I don’t think it will.