Nah, I’ve largely been indifferent to Poole since he committed to Michigan but even I think the flak he’s gotten from Michigan fans is beyond excessive. People nit pick every little mistake he makes as if he was the number 1 recruit in his class or a lottery pick talent. I don’t get where some of the toxicity comes from.
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Holy damn, Poole was a -6.6 BPM last year?! Yeesh. 45% TS will do that I guess. He’s nearly league average in BPM this year. Given how much variance there is in shooting, will be really interesting to see where he lands. He was an 88% FT shooter this year and got to the line at a league average rate, so you’d have to feel pretty optimistic that at least some of this shooting skill can stick. And this was still just his age 21 season. Maybe he maxes out as, like, a Jordan Clarkson type?
Big fan of the DARKO shiny app:
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All these things can be true at the same time:
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Poole is a good player who belongs in the NBA, made the right decision to leave when he did, and has a great legacy as a Wolverine.
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Our fan base has some crazies who behave very inappropriately.
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Poole was at times a frustrating player and in two specific games that frustration was visible from his teammates on the court, which is uncommon and did not go unnoticed. Pointing that out here isn’t a value judgment and shouldn’t trigger value judgments.
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Very well said. I would add that we can both appreciate and respect Poole while also being a bit disappointed with how his Michigan career played out too.
I consider Drew Henson one of the most talented QBs in Michigan history and someone that had the ability to play in the NFL…I also was frustrated and disappointed with his career at various times.
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FWIW, league average TS this year was 57.2%. So, Poole/Hardaway marginally above league average, Duncan way over.
Obviously, other parts of the game.
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I know there has been previous discussion on how it’s odd that Beilein players haven’t shot well in the NBA. Looking at these stats, it seems that they all do shoot FTs well, so maybe overall FG shooting struggles simply reflect relatively limited athleticism (or height for someone like Burke) to get good shots at this level.
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Do they actually shoot FTs well? League average in the NBA is 78%.
In lieu of one season wrap-up post and talking about the last two weeks, I thought I’d try to summarize (maybe tackle a few guys at a time thematically) and try a glimpse at where they are going.
I’m going to start with 2 guys who, at the end of the year had, pretty shockingly similar seasons (at least, on a per minute basis): Jordan Poole and Tim Hardaway Jr..
So, minutes aside (and obviously, a good performance (which these are) over more minutes has more value, so clearly Hardaway’s minutes played matters), they scored at pretty similar rates, with Hardaway’s superior three-point shooting getting balanced out by Poole being more effective getting to the line (and marginally better once once there). Clearly, Poole plays with the ball in his hands a bit more, which ticks assists, turnovers, and usage up for Jordan. In reality - Jordan’s foul-drawing/free-throw-shooting game is what dragged his scoring efficiency over league average.
Generally, neither are particularly good defensively, the difference in the all-in-one offensive stat value probably has most to do with who they played with - Poole only played 20% of his minutes with Curry, and the Warriors were generally really bad when Curry didn’t play (The Warriors were net -0.1 pp100 possessions when Poole played, and +12.3 points per 100 possessions when he shared the floor with Curry, if this gives you any idea).
So…why did it seem (at least to me) that Poole was having greater struggles over the course of the year? Consistency (or lack thereof) is the main culprit. From 12/22 to 1/30, Poole shot 42% from the floor and 33% from three, and was struggling to find minutes. At this point, he got sent to the G-League.
When he returned, from 3/4 to 3/26, he shot a blistering 56.1% from the floor, and 41% from three.
From 3/29 to 5/6, he shot 35.1% from the floor, and 29% from three.
From 5/8 through 5/16 he again scorched the nets - 56.5% from the floor, 45% from three.
In other words - a season of a moderately bad start, one prolonged slump, and two serious hot-streaks.
Hardaway Jr. is metronomic - with exception of a mild cold streak in April (that didn’t reach anywhere near Jordan’s depths, Tim had true shooting of at least 57% every month of the year.
Looking forward, despite their similarities this year, they’re fairly different players at different stages of the growth curve - Hardaway is about as “just a shooter” as you get in the NBA - a not great defender, who doesn’t really succeed much with the ball in his hands, there to space the floor for his team’s offensive engine (Hardaway growing this three-point attempt rate by 12% WHILE growing his shooting percentage by 7% is basically the story of this career.
Jordan, on the other hand, is not nearly as far along the growth curve, and getting trusted to do more - he was essentially the team’s backup point guard down the stretch of the season, and showed growing assist rates without seeing his turnover rate grow nearly as much. He also, at the end, began to play more minutes with Steph - and even with the starters at the end of games. Obviously, playing with and without Steph require two pretty different skillsets, but Jordan seemed to handle both well. Most of his threes (close to 90%) are still assisted - if he’s going to keep being an on-ball player, that will clearly need to change some.
In terms of of the future, I think both are sure-fire NBA players in no threat of the G-League or other indignity, but both do face some uncertainty coming up (not because they’re bad).
With Hardaway, it’s straight-forward - he’s a free agent after this year, and is playing out the player-option for $18 mil from the contract he got from Phil Jackson that, surprisingly, he actually came like 85% of the way of justifying, which is amazing given the opinions when he signed it. The Mavericks are about $19 million under the cap next year prior to signing him, and are facing a serious extension for Doncic the year following. With Josh Richardson likely not picking up his player option, they could have $29 million to sign FA’s with this being their last chance to add talent prior to being an over-the-cap team around Luka. On the other hand - the FA market is pretty bare, and Tim has played well. If I had to bet, I’d say he’s back in Dallas, but I think it’s fair to think he may not be.
Golden State is capped out, with a star shooting guard returning over Jordan. The Warriors will more likely than not also get the Timberwolves’ top-3 protected pick this year. As of this moment, Jordan likely enters the season as a third/combo guard who can fill in for either starting guard. Will Klay’s return force the Warriors into win-now mode? If so, the assets they have to get a good player, now, are Wiseman, that incoming first from Minnesota, and…Jordan Poole. That’s not saying he’ll be traded, but given how cheap he is, how young he is, and how much he improved from year one, I could certainly see him as an appealing partial return for a more tenured/established player.
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Excellent perspective and gives a lot more context than just the numbers themselves. Curious what you think of Poole as a back-up PG for those minutes when Steph is off the court. How is he doing in meaningful games in that role? Is he facilitating pretty well for others? A third guard role when Klay returns seems like an awesome spot to be in…but if GSW thinks they need more of a pure PG since Steph and Klay can both be the off-ball shooter at times…that might be trickier for Poole.
Honestly, I think his role with this team is extremely similar to Steph’s - both will play with the ball, but both will play long stretches without it - they tend to put Poole in lots of the same actions as Steph at this point. So he is often “the point guard” but spends long stretches sprinting all over trying to get open.
I don’t have nearly as much to add as others do on Poole. I saw him only a bit this year, including some of those nice Memphis minutes. But I’ve also seen neutral talk about him; Nate Duncan, in particular, seems to like Poole a great deal, highlighting his play at least a half-dozen times this season and speaking very positively about his game, particularly his decision making when he drives to the basket. The small chatter I hear on public media channels suggests that GS is optimistic that he’s a solution at the backup PG spot going forward, and one might suggest that G League stints are indicative of their desire to develop him with game minutes rather than pessimism toward his future prospects.
The guy playing for GS certainly looks a lot more mature than the guy that was a flashpoint for casual basketball fans at Michigan. Yes, he was kind of frustrating here. It was who he was, and we all sort of knew that. The key is that he’s grown through some of those bad habits.
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Yeah the last game I saw, he was bringing up the ball and initiating the offense. I didnt know if that was just because they were sitting so many players or if that’s the role they see fir him.
I think the hope is that he’s the third guard when Klay comes back and can either play PG along side Klay or SG along side Steph.
Physically he’s so much bigger than he was in college.
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Yeah, I think their plan, at least for now, is for him to be the primary ball-handler on the second unit. Wiggins does and will continue to play some as a “guard” so I’m not sure he’s the “third guard” but is probably the first guard off the bench. I think his main challenge at this point is just consistency (which can be hard to find in under 20 minutes) - he was generally either very good or very bad this year, with extended stretches of both, that sort of netted out to “fine”. I think it’s reasonable to think that with Klay coming back, the Warriors’ aspirations are going to grow next year, and the willingness to ride out weeks of bad play may go with it.
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This means if they were to make the real playoffs, he’d miss basically all of the first round.
Just saw that he did not feature in the box score at ESPN, came over here to see if I could find out what the story was. Looks like they fared pretty well without him.
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TIMMAY has had a nice opening to the post-season, averaging 24.5, 3 assists, and 65% from behind the long line.
At least in the early going, he seems to be option #2 over Porzingis. I’m hoping for a deep Mavs run. A Michigan Man (or two) getting a ring hasn’t happened since Juwan with the Heat, I believe.
Also, Trey hasn’t played yet.
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