For Tilman (and Livers), if there is no season or a short season this year does that shoot him up draft boards for 2021? Less tape and information on a prospect than normal vs taking a guy who has tons of film and reliable game play?
If Tilman is a borderline end of first round guy now, i would imagine that if no basketball is played between now and 2021 teams would be happy to take him in the low 20s.
Not sure that less basketball will mean that people will take fewer chances on players with less film. It does mean that theyāll make some bad evaluations along the way, probably.
Seems like TiIllman doesnāt think heās going in the first round. If he thought he was going in the first round I think heād go for sure.
FWIW
I am a big Xavier Tillman fan. I hope his return to MSU, if true, works out for him. By nearly every reasonable criteria available, it seems like the wrong choice for him and his family.
That was my thought. I think he should stay in but if there is a season and he is an absolute beast ( which is possible) and state makes a deep run he could lock up a top 20 spot potentially. Maybe heās hearing early second is likely or worse and he isnāt feeling that.
Hereās hoping livers feels that way as well.
If Tillman returns to Michigan State where no college season is remotely guaranteed while already having his degree, two young kids and be a virtual lock for the NBA draft I would just have to go ahead and assume his wife is the most understanding and supportive woman in the history of the world.
Iām not really concerned about MSUās recruiting, and how it impacts Michigan.
First, the two teams rarely compete for the same players.
Second, I think Juwan Howard is going to have a large recruiting footprint - DC, Chicago, Florida (IMG), Michigan, etc. For example, we offered Pierre Brooks and while he committed to MSU, we landed Isaiah Barnes, a wing player who I happen to like more. Assuming we close this class out strong - and I think we will - I donāt really care who MSU lands. I donāt think itās going to be a zero sum game at all.
Finally, for me, making a deep run in the NCAA tourney is far more gratifying than winning the Big Ten regular season title. Would you rather be Illinois in 1989, or Michigan? In 2013, Indiana or Michigan? In 2018, Purdue or Michigan? The Big Ten plays a boring, physical, grind it out style of basketball, and frequently the teams who play well in conference get bounced early in the real tourney. (Big Ten - no NCAA titles for 20 years).
We just need to keep landing good players. MSU will get theirs.
And while I do think JB was a better talent developer than Izzo, Izzo has had major success stories - Draymond, Forbes, Valentine, Tillman, Winston (a good recruit, to be sure, but he was a star the past two years). He doesnāt have a Bill Self (lousy) track record.
I agree. To me heās a low 20s pick this year and likely to go in about the same spot next year. Very good player with some physical limitations that would prevent teams from seeing him as a lottery talent.
I dont think anyoneās arguing that a tournament run is not more fun than a conference championship. But the best way to be putting yourself in a position to do that is by doing as well as possible in conference generally. The Big Ten has done fine in the tournament, just hasnāt been able to win the big one.
I imagine someone already mentioned this but in case nobody did, Xavier Tillman posted an Instagram story that said āWHOāS YOUR SOURCEā.
Or the most financially āsupportiveā program in the country.
Could it be that Izzo called in a favor to Dickie V (and he was senile enough to fall for the bait) so that Tillman could āfeel the loveā from the MSU āfamilyā?
Because otherwise this makes no damn sense for him to come back. Very little sense normally but many times over during a pandemic when there may not be a season!
Sure, I want to win every game, including conference games. But Iād much rather be 2018 Michigan than 2016 MSU. Having a great regular season doesnāt mean a lot when you choke in the first round of the tourney and lose to a #15 seed.
I wouldnāt say that the two premier programs in Michigan rarely compete for the same players. If MSU fell apart, we would get a lot more Cassius Winstons and Jaden Akins. Those are good players. The strength of Michiganās recruiting recently is that we have been able to recruit well despite missing out on a number of elite in-state players. What does Michigan look like over the past 4 years if we have Winston instead of Xavier? Thatās an interesting question, but I would argue Michigan was better equipped to showcase Winston and probably get him drafted higher, despite his physical limitations- See Trey Burke.
I think Juwan Howardās program is a lot different recruiting wise than John Beileinās was. I was mostly talking about the last decade in comparing Izzo holding players back and Beilein developing as much NBA draft talent as any other program in the country. Another way of making my point is that if MSU was rocked by a recruiting violation and somehow couldnāt recruit at the same level, Michigan would have had a better āpickā of recruits. Maybe they still choose X over Winston, Barnes over Brooks, but they at least have more options. We can still get good players, but MSU makes that harder than say Ohio State or Illinois have it where there is no other major in-state power.
On the Conference championship versus NCAA tournament issue- I think itās what makes college basketball so interesting. Upsets happen all the time in the tournament because a single basketball game is a terrible metric of who the better team is. Michigan 2013 and 2018 made 1 in a 1000 shots.(perhaps a slight exaggeration) The fact that this happened twice in a decade is really remarkable, but it doesnāt mean we were a better program those years. Rarely do the ābest teamsā win the whole tournament, thankfully. I think fundamentally how I evaluate Michigan over the past decade is whether they hung a banner (or make the sweet 16 so the year goes on a banner). That doesnāt mean 2013 Michigan was a better team than the Indiana team that beat Michigan head to head twice, we got a better draw and hit the bigger shots when it mattered.
From a playerās perspective, I think a large portion of how I would evaluate program success is how highly drafted would I be at each school. Forbes is a great example of a player who was undrafted but had the talent to play in the NBA. Did Izzo do a good job of making Forbes more money? I donāt see how he did. JB had a better track record of getting his players paid professionally and it is frustrating that players for whatever reason, never seemed as interested in that. Iām sure that is oversimplifying the situation tremendously, but as an outsider that feels like it should matter.
I think this is an interesting fundamental debate and I donāt think your perspective is āwrongā whatsoever.
This is how you should look at it. Not that finishing in the top ten in KenPom is somehow more rewarding as a fan, or winning the regular season in the Big Ten is more rewarding as a fan than making the Final Four, but that doing those things regularly means you have more chances to actually make the Final Four and potentially win the whole thing. Those are far better indicators of program health/success than tournament results.
If you are always that good in the regular season, then you are also probably going to have some disappointing NCAAT results but the real key is how often you can position yourself to make a run.
A few counterpoints:
Sure, if MSU suddenly became Northwestern, Michigan would have access to its choice of recruits in the state of Michigan. (Itās worth noting this year is a particularly strong year for Michigan). My point was simply that Michigan as a program has been able to achieve great success even in the face of MSU recruiting at a high level. We have made two NCAA title games in six years, while MSU hasnāt done it since 2009 (when the game was over by the first TV timeout). His 2018 team was his most talented in many years. We went 2-0 against them. They lost in the round of 32; we made the championship game (winning 33 games to their 30 for the season).
I donāt see any scandals happening at MSU. Even if they were paying players, these days people donāt care nearly as much. (Case in point, Will Wade is still employed). And Izzo, with the help of the local media, has managed to dodge most questions concerning sexual assault allegations against his players.
I donāt like Izzo, and donāt like MSUās style of play, but heās been tremendously successful as a coach, and heās going to keep getting really good players. Itās reality.
Yes, I would agree JB was better at player development and getting guys drafted. But Izzo has some calling cards too. And we donāt have JB anymore, so now the question will be what kind of job Juwan can do with player development (I thought Brooks, Johns and Davis made some great strides this year, DDJ too).
As far as regular season versus tourney, Iām not saying making the Sweet Sixteen after a poor regular season (the UCLA under Steve Lavin model) is gratifying as a fan. But I would much rather be 1989 Michigan, 1992 or 1993 Michigan, 2013 Michigan, or 2018 Michigan than the teams who won the Big Ten in those seasons. And Iāll bet Indiana fans would trade their 2013 season for ours. Iād also rather be us in 2018 than MSU or Purdue - they had better regular seasons (with an unbalanced schedule), we beat them in the Big Ten tourney and then had a great NCAA run.
Anyway, good discussion. I feel good about Juwanās recruiting, and Izzo is now starting to chase high profile kids who may or may not ever play for him, and who are the type of kids with whom he has underachieved in the past. Letās see how it all plays out.
1- Agreed- If anything I think JB, and now Juwan, deserve more praise for their success (and hopefully future success) given the circumstances.
2 & 3- also agreed- MSU isnāt going anywhere, and it is very much appreciated how far UM has come since the Amaker years. I was in school both before and during JBās tenure and I will always love him for getting us to the tournament in 2009.
4- I personally would take 2010 JB over 2010 Tom Izzo for my 2010 imaginary program. I think thatās a simplistic way to evaluate best coach of the decade, but I still think Beilein should have gotten the nod. 2020 Howard versus 2020 Izzo is an incomplete so far, but I am also encouraged with development of some players- especially Eli Brooks. I have a minor contact point(not professionally) with Eli and heās a great kid. Iām very excited to see what he does this year.
5- I think this is an eternal debate, and I used to take your position until recently. Again 2013 and 2018 Michigan feel very different without hitting two unbelievable shots. If Burke or Poole miss those shots neither year is anything that special. Hypotheticals aside, I think the goal is obviously to win both, and as Dylan said, winning the Big Ten usually means you have a great team that has as good a shot as anyone in the NCAA Tournament. Itās just a crap-shoot when you get there.
Discussion before that he was a State lean