Where the thought that livers will leave? most think he’ll be back too.
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Really? I hadn’t heard anything either way
Live shot of Tom Izzo campaigning for Xavier Tillman to return to MSU
And it works way more often than it should!
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There is a difference between improving a jump shot and improving a jump shot enough to move up the NBA draft boards as a 6’8 center. He can improve his jump shot in a year, but it is unlikely that he would turn himself into the kind of “plus” three point shooter that could propel him from the back of the first round into the NBA draft lottery.
Not to mention, if he comes back and doesn’t show improved shooting/playmaking ability then his stock could actually fall as a 22 year old player with limited offensive upside.
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Classic. Livers will declare and go undrafted next guaranteed.
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I like ZT as a player and a person. It’s not even about UM being better than MSU. I just want what is best for him. The decision to return seems like a crazy bad decision. Hope it works out for him.
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I think it also goes back to the idea that many, including myself, thought that sending more players to the NBA than MSU would help recruiting in the long run. We’ve had some success, but certainly not at the level of MSU. Michigan has nearly the same level of success over the last decade as MSU, but MSU has recruited much better despite holding tons of players back from the NBA. Arguably this has hurt individual player draft stock, but it doesn’t seem to matter to the recruits for whatever reason.
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After reading this a couple of times to try to get clarity, I don’t think you are specifically referring to me when you say, “your advice,” as I originally believed it to mean. I may have an opinion on staying or returning, but ultimately the player must do what he and his family believe is best for him and his family. My advice, if the player asked me, would that he should do what is in his best interest, and that he should look at the decision as a long term one.
I personally favor kids, generally, staying in school for a longer period of time rather than a shorter one. That’s just who I am as a former teacher and coach. I coached several sports at a middle school (basketball, football, track), a high school (basketball, golf), and a DIII college (basketball), and I’ve always told my players that while I would do everything I could to help them become the best player they could be, their “bread is buttered” on the side of academics! As a coach I always believed in the notion of “academic athletics.”
So, here’s XT. He’s graduated from college, check. He may very well be a first round draft choice, and he most certainly will get drafted and sign a contract higher than that of 99% of college graduates right out of school, check. He has two kids to support, check. If asked, and of course he would never ask ME, I would still suggest he do what is in the best interests of himself and his family, but, of course, if he still wanted my opinion on that it would be to sign that contract and get on with his life.
XT is an exceptional young man who has the opportunity to provide for his family at a level most of us can only dream of. If he feels he wants/needs to improve his shot, I’ll use the argument others have used. How could he develop his shot better in college, with all the restrictions on practice time and workouts with coaches that exist in college, than he could as a pro without those restrictions? And, seriously, if Izzo, or any coach hasn’t improved your shot in the three years that coach has had you in his program, why do think, magically he can help you improve it by staying one more year?
Now, maybe he wants to get a “free” masters degree. Maybe he just loves college. I don’t know. But to stay because Izzo, or any coach, wants you to stay, well, that’s, in THIS case, probably not a great reason. Just my thoughts.
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For me, the only thing that really matters is how good the players are once they play in college.
For example, if we go all the way back to 2010/11 as our starting point, Keith Appling was a much higher rated recruit than Tim Hardaway, Jr., but I would argue Hardaway was the better player. Similarly, a guy like Payne came in as a five star, while a guy like Mo Wagner did not, but Wagner had the better college career.
In terms of team performance during that time, Michigan has more than held its own. We had two down years - 2015 and to a lesser extent 2016 - while MSU was more consistent. Our “highs” may have been a little higher (making two title games, versus none for them). It’s very close.
But in watching the two teams, I’ve never felt like we had a talent deficiency. MSU’s most talented team was probably the 2018 squad, and we went 2-0 against them.
But sure, if the criteria is limited to which team landed more top 50 recruits on paper, they have an edge.
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Looks like Aaron Henry will be staying at Michigan State as well but that’s less concrete than Tillman.
Looking doubtful they pick up Karin Mane at this point which already was kinda expected.
Sorry, to clarify I was talking about Izzo’s advice (I totally see how that was confusing, my apologies). Whether or not Izzo is giving the advice “in good conscience” I of course can’t say, but to an outsider it oozes of selfishness and self interest. That seems more clear in this case, especially when Izzo has made the case for Tillman to return publicly. Tillman should obviously do what he feels is best for him, but if your coach is publicly pushing for you to return it’s hard for me to imagine that he’s doing everything they can for you behind the scenes to make the best, best-informed decision.
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I honestly don’t understand what would drive him to go back to MSU in this case. Even if you play the “improve his shot” card…why can’t he do that in the NBA? Is he going to improve it enough in one weird Covid-affected year at MSU that he goes from a borderline 1st/2nd round pick into the lottery? No way. To me, this decision is baffling. I can’t think of a single reason to stay other than “I really like East Lansing and Izzo.”
Also, while we’re talking about improving his shot at MSU…let’s remember that Izzo has never been a fan of his bigs taking outside shots or letting marginal shooters jack up 3s. Those types of plays are what get you humiliated by Izzo on national TV. I just don’t see Izzo being willing to let his best rebounder and marginal shooter away from the basket so he can show off his NBA talent.
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His take sounds delusional. I think everyone here has tremendous respect for Tillman’s game, but in what world does senior Xavier Tillman break out as the “best player in the nation”?
I also don’t take it as a given that losing Winston is automatically a good thing for XT. He’ll be asked to do more–and I think he can do more–but there’s no guarantee he truly thrives as a number-one option on offense.
I would think he’d probably be a Preseason First-Team All-American. How exactly is it delusional to say he could end up as the POTY? Doesn’t seem like that far of a stretch.
If it is a huge stretch, then maybe he isn’t making a huge mistake by considering returning to school? It isn’t all that often a guy who would be a top-20 type pick comes back to school, and they are usually AAs when they do.
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Completely agree. XT was a huge beneficiary of having Winston as the focal point. XT was in the ideal role of playing off action from Winston. Game planning for MSU was all about Winston. Heck, Michigan’s game plan in the second matchup was basically “let Tillman shoot jump shots”.
I think Livers has at least some opportunity with his skill set to try and be a bigger playmaker next year…even if I doubt that is where his strengths lie. But Tillman is an off-ball player who’s value is as a defender and hard-nose-smart-gritty-dirty-work player.
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Just as a data point, Tillman averaged about 3x as many assists per game as Isaiah Livers.
Tillman is definitely great as a roller, but he’s an elite short roll player… he can pass, drive and make every read from that spot. You’ll see him as a playmaker in the middle of the floor quite a bit if he comes back to MSU.
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Okay, sure, maybe my language is too harsh. It’s not implausible he’d be a candidate for first team All American, the top center in the country, and the best player in the Big Ten… and those are all big maybes in their own right, of course. From there, assuming MSU is consistently top 5, he’s a probable NPOY candidate.
But I’m holding firm in saying we’re a long ways away from him being recognized as the “best player in the country.” It’s a stretch.
On top of that, while those are impressive and possibly attainable accomplishments (and I love XT as a player)…they don’t necessarily help his NBA stock. Maybe they do…but we’re not talking about going from undrafted to first round like DJ Wilson. We’re talking about trying to go from late 1st to lottery. Stauskas, Burke, Brunson, Winston, Garza, Grant Williams, Swanigan, Kaminsky…
I think if Tillman blows up into the maximum potential he has…lots of awards will come his way, lots of good PR, he’ll probably have a blast if there’s a season…and he’ll move up a few draft spots?
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I agree you should look at college performance for evaluating the strength of a program, but recruiting is still based on stars. There are hits and misses, and Beilein was as good as anyone at evaluating talent, but MSU is at an elite level recruiting over the past decade based on paper talent. This is despite a coach who is arguably a net negative on player’s pro prospects. This is a source of some frustration.
I also view Michigan-MSU recruiting as more zero-sum than others. The better MSU is doing over the long term the worse off it is for Michigan. It is true both programs CAN succeed in the NCAA tournament, but as Dylan and Brendan often suggest- winning the Big Ten is more reflective of a program’s success. MSU has kept Michigan from some hardware in the last decade no question.
Tillman’s game/style reminds me of Loy Vaught. Loy got himself into (what would now be) the lottery in his 5th year but that was a much different time when teams weren’t drafting as much by what the player might be instead of what he already was. I don’t see a ton of upside for Tillman’s draft position by coming back. Maybe he gets to the back end of the first round but at 6’8" and nearly 23 years old when the '21-'22 NBA season starts, it’s just as likely that he hurts his draft stock.
If his top priority is gambling on getting a championship at MSU then fine. Otherwise, this really doesn’t make much sense.
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