I took a look and you have to go all the way back to 2002 to find what I would constitute as going on a run to get themselves on the right side of the bubble. That season they were 14-10 (5-6) before reeling off five straight wins to end the regular season, though they then lost their B10 Tourney opener to national runner-up Indiana. That got them a 10-seed.
I guess you could sort of count 2011 in that they won two games in the B10 Tournament to just do enough to make up for their clunky, uneven regular season (culminating in the Darious Morris âGTFO my courtâ game).
There was a thread on a Iowa hoops forum that went into greater detail in regards to that. This one was just a shorter version. The February Fran more or less is a myth, what isnât a myth is his poor record in the B1G Tournament.
While Duke and Kentucky wonât have enough opportunities for big wins in the regular season to create a tourney resume, their conference tournaments will be infinitely easier for them to win than the chances of MSU running the table in the Big Ten tourney. I mean even if MSU were to get themselves into the 8/9 game they would need to win that (against a team with a pulse) and then beat the #1 seed, then the #4/5 winner (which will be a top 15 team), and then whoever comes out of the other half of the bracket (probably a top 10 team). That would potentially be 3 straight wins over top 10/15 teams after winning a coin toss 8/9 game.
You mean to tell me the Fran McCaffrey teams always fall apart in February compared to the rest of their seasons take isnt rooted in reality whatsoever??? Jeez maybe next someone will tell me that Iowaâs Kenpom rank (5th) is 17 spots higher than their best finish in the last decade, or that losing to two top 10 teams by a combined 9 points while missing a starter that shoots 50% from three is actually not an indictment of their season but should really support that theyâre one of the best teams in the conference (as all respectable metrics clearly show). But that canât possibly be trueâŚsame old Iowa ha ha no defense Fran sucks yada yada
Whereâs the dislike button??? Iowa has lost me more money than all other teams combined, Iâm OFF their hype train and will never utter a positive phrase about Franâs program.
The issue is that there are basically two types of Iowa basketball seasons under Fran: 1) mediocre all season and 2) starting strongly and fading. Whenever theyâre ranked highly midseason, the fade inevitably follows. They never go into the tournament with any momentum, either way, and they donât play well in it.
Also, the fade often actually begins in January, which makes that statistic a little deceptive.
Haha you are such an Iowa stan. Enough about the games where they were âdefeated with dignity.â Where are the impressive wins? Purdue (23 NET), Minnesota (52 NET) and UNC (55 NET) at home? Rutgers on the road? You can rely on computer numbers all you want, but eventually you need to actually win the games against good teams.
At what point do you jump off the Iowa bandwagon? What will it take? currently 7 games remaining (Rutgers, MSU, Wisconsin X2, PSU, OSU and MI)⌠Whatâs the magic number that would make you finally jump off the bandwagon? 3-4 (making them 10-9 in B1G)? 4-3? 2-5?
Remember, we are grading them on the scale of great teams, not good teams. No one has ever said they arenât good. The Iowa detractors just say itâs not a top 10 team like the media was hyping them up to be.
In looking at some of the better Fran teams it does seem like Franbuary is a myth⌠itâs cause his teams actually donât start stinking until mid to late Feb through March. So the fade hasnât even begun
Pulled up the only 5 remotely good Fran teams, cause I really donât care what the mediocre 88th ranked Iowa teams did. Hard to fade when you always sucked.
2019: 5-2 in Feb, but loses last 4 games of regular season including 0-3 in March regular season games. Then blasted by Michigan in B1G QF. End up as 10 seed and lose in 2nd round. Peaked at 25th on Kenpom on 2/19 but ended 37th
2016: 3-4 in February after entering it 9-1. Lost in first round of BTT to a terrible Illinois team. Was 2nd in KenPom 1/31 (hmm sounds familiar), ended season 22nd after losing in 2nd round as a 7 seed.
2015: This team closed well. Went 6-2 in February and 2-0 in March to finish regular season 8-2 after starting 4-4 in conference. But managed to lose in first round of BTT again to a crappy PSU team. Lost in 2nd round as 7 seed.
2014: 3-4 in February after peaking at 16-4 overall and ranked #4 on KenPom. Also went 1-2 to close March. Then lost AGAIN in BTT first round to a deplorable NW team to fall to an 11 seed where they lost in the first round to UT and ended as KenPom 22.
2013: 4-3 in February. Also went 2-1 in March. Even won a BTT game! But didnât make tourney Entered Feb 36th on KenPom, ended season 29th.
So the February part of the fade is overstated, but Iowa hasnât exactly covered itself in glory there and March has been brutal.
The other thing is that in the years where they had a decent February, they usually were coming off a terrible January.
It may not be specifically in February, but you can pretty much count on a Fran team going through a brutal slump at some point in every season. And they always lose early in the BTT.
Side note: I love that the Iowa dialog has shifted to âhis collapses arenât always in February, sometimes they are in March.â Incredible stuff.
Iowa isnât terrible⌠Iowa is one of the fourth or fifth-best teams in the Big Ten which is arguably the best league in college basketball. Since Jan 1, Iowa is 11th on Torvik - 2nd in offense, 133rd in defense â that seems kind of accurate to me?
It was all of the 3rd in the country rankings early in the season that was the ridiculous thing about Iowa IMO.
Iâm curious as to why you âneed to actually win the games against good teamsâ? I mean sure in the tournament you will have to beat somebody good, but there isnât any evidence that having more quality wins in the regular season leads to greater odds of NCAA tourney success in comparison to overall adjusted efficiency margins. Plenty of teams have made deep NCAA tourney runs that were not nearly as impressive in the regular season in regards to resume of wins and losses and were more impressive by efficiency margins.
They just have a terrible coach who will never achieve anything remotely resembling national success. Fran is worse than Chris Collins and Mark Turgeon. Fran is worse than Ed Cooley. Worse than Brian Ellerbe. You have no idea just how bad Fran actually is.
