I agree with that to the extent that JP wasn’t a starter the year before. However, Rocket was, and if he has Jordan’s sophomore season numbers, MSU will not be as good as I think they will. I think Rocket will be very good–a Keith Appling type and level player. Appling was not what some MSU fans expected, but he was a very good player.
Appling is probably the perfect example. He had a breakout sophomore year while playing next to a facilitating big (Green)… If Tillman is back, that situation is pretty similar IMO.
Is the opinion that Keith Appling was bad? Before the injury? I think that’s the Watts role though… a score-first PG, not a Cassius Winston. And MSU does well with those guys.
I think it is important to point out that Watts shot 33% on twos and 21% on threes during the first eight games of his career before his injury. That’s a 32 eFG% during that span compared to a 51.2 eFG% once he came back.
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No, as I said, Keith Appling was a very good player. Although he did not have the size, or pro potential, of Jordan Poole, he was a better player in college. I expect Watts to be like Appling, which would achieve breakout status. My point was that if he achieves Poole level of play as a soph, rather than Applying level, that does not qualify as breakout player status, especially given that he was a regular starter as a freshman.
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What would people set the over/under for Rocket on points, assists, turnovers and shooting percentages for next year?
Personally I’m quite high on Rocket. Especially after he torched the EYBL. I think he will be one of the better guards in the Big Ten next year.
12, 3, 3, 45% 2 /33% 3
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Depends on if Tillman/Langford are there. If they both are, I’ll go:
13 PPG, 3 APG, 3 TOPG, 42% from the field and 34% from three.
If Tillman is not there, then I’d expect points and assists go up slightly, turnovers go up a lot, and percentages go down into “omg that’s bad” territory
Here’s another one I forgot about…Jerome Hunter. I could see him getting a nice role with Justin Smith gone.
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Those all seem pretty fair. I’ll take the over on PPG and 2P%, under on APG, TOPG and a push on the 3P%.
My offseason hype machine refuses to type Jerome Hunter or Aaron Wheeler ever again.
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“Dispatches from Archie Island”
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Who will win (and be cursed by) the 2021 offseason hype machine award for Dylan?
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I think Watts is going to be exciting and will stuff the stat sheet…I am less convinced he will do so in a way that makes MSUs offense hum or the fans not pull their hair out. As I said in another thread, MSU has a lot of talented role players that will have to step up and fill the massive void left by four years of Winston. Will be interesting.
As for Poole…maybe some of us were a little too critical and didn’t appreciate his growth from year one to two enough…but he had some really rough stretches for two thirds of the season in a year where we needed him to steady the offense. Kudos for getting picked high and earning some minutes for GSW…but I am not going to pretend he had a good season for us. Would have loved to see him as a junior.
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I would say MSU is at their best with a point guard who excels at passing.
They have won 30 or more games 5 times under Izzo.
1999: 33 wins, Cleaves 7.2 APG.
2000: 32 wins, Cleaves 6.9 APG.
2019: 32 wins, Winston 7.5 APG.
2018: 30 wins, Winston 6.9 APG.
Even when they finished with just under 30 wins, they had strong passers.
They won 29 games in 2016 with Valentine averaging 7.8 APG.
They won 29 in 2014 with Appling at 4.5 APG and Valentine kicking in another 3.8 APG.
They won 29 in 2012 with Draymond averaging 3.8 assists and Appling 3.9.
Conversely, in 2007 they went 23-12 with Neitzel averaging 18.1 points but only 4.3 assists.
Similarly, in 2003 and 2004 with Chris Hill as the sort of de facto PG, they went 22-13 and 18-12. Hill averaged only 3.7 and 3.9 APG in those two years. By 2005, though, they had a two headed PG in Hill (4.2 APG) and Neitzel (2.9 APG), and went 26-7.
Finally, the guy who Watts reminds me of - Marcus Taylor. They went 19-12 with Taylor running the point in 2002. He scored 16.8 on an inefficient .400 from the floor, with 5.3 assists.
We’ll see what Watts can do. I think he’s a talented (albeit streaky) scorer. Not sure he’s really a facilitator. He reminds me a lot of Taylor and also Eron Harris. But maybe Hoggard is ready to play the point and it won’t be an issue.
I think he can do even better and will.
Would Aaron Henry be considered a breakout player if he expands his game?
Sleeper breakout Spartan for me would be Malik Hall. I like his game.
Honestly I could see Hall, Brown, or Henry becoming a star…or being the focus of Izzos ire all season and struggling.
It’s going to be an extremely interesting year in the big ten if they can play a full schedule without guys constantly needing to be quarantined. Not sure what the season will look like but if it’s a normal season outside of fans there in full force like normal it will be exciting.
Wisconsin would be my early pick but it should be another year where the league beats up on itself a bit. I’d love to see what Michigan looks like with brown and livers. I think they can stay in the mix to win it.
Iowa , M-state, Indiana, Rutgers, Illinois, Purdue.
Lots of interesting teams but lots of ? marks too.
Iowa will be interesting if they can conjure up any defense. Indiana i am not sold on at all. Rutgers will be a problem in the BIG. Illinois could be good or crash and burn depending on who comes back. Purdue I see taking a step back with losing two seniors. State I will believe it when I see it as they will have to have several step their games up in creating with Winston gone. Mich, if Livers returns the two most important positions will be point guard and Wagner stepping up and becoming the guy. Yea I know we have to replace Teske’s role at center.
I think you are conflating the idea that good MSU teams are good passing teams with good MSU teams have ball-dominant pass-first point guards.
Cleaves/Winston examples are very different than 2014 or 2012 where someone else is the primary passer and the PG is more of a scorer.
MSU next year will have some very good passers away from PG with Henry and potentially Tillman.