Yeah I don’t see it happening either, there’s a reason he’s mocked so highly. But it will take the right roster, because GM’s have to answer to their fans/owners that they are solidifying the third best player on the roster for years to come, but probably not a superstar
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While not great from an initial financial perspective, it might be in Franz’ long term interest to be on a playoff team that has a great scorer (or scorers) already and would rather fill out their roster with an elite wing defender.
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Guys the financial difference between 14th and 28th is negligible compared to entering a year later
He’s going to be fine, a few slots won’t matter - “falling out of the lottery” doesn’t actually mean much
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You’re 100% correct that it won’t matter for Franz (and I wasn’t speaking financially). He’s just a unique prospect that could have a wide range in where he’s picked, because he’ll likely be taken by a team that doesn’t need a natural shot creator (or a center/PF).
The good news is that wings who can guard ok and not get left alone on offense get paid $20 mil a year. We keep talking about Nic Batum - check his earnings.
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This difference is even more negligible when compared to negotiations on a second contract. That can easily be 50mil+ and still having a bit of youth for that one pays out far more than the rookie deal or draft position. Franz just needs to show flashes over the next three years to make a boatload of money, if he waits a couple more and is picked 5th overall, the pressure to earn a really good second contract is on immediately.
Batum lucked into free agency in 2016 when NBA teams had an explosion in salary cap size and a lack of elite free agents. It was the summer of terrible contracts (or great contracts if you happened to be someone like Batum).
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Is it weird I’d Todd over Franz? I’ll duck out of the room now before people start throwing things.
I like Franz as an early 20’s guy. I think it would benefit him to land with a better team that doesn’t need him more than spot minutes for a year or two.
I think his d and length is going to make him stick for the long haul though.
Franz is going to have to improve his 3 point shot, and probably rework his mechanics to make it a quicker smoother release, to ever get consistent minutes in the NBA IMHO. It is hard to give minutes to perimeter players that don’t shoot well these days.
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The confusing thing is, teams don’t really draft according to that maxim. When you look at a lot of the 5-star, one-and-done types, many of them are great athletes and questionable shooters. This draft seems to be especially heavy on them. Green, Kuminga, Suggs, Jalen Johnson, Barnes, Giddey are all considered top prospects despite the fact that they’re in that “perimeter players who don’t shoot well” category.
They are drafting with the hope they will become shooters. It is all about potential. If it never develops they don’t play as much.
That seems to be the prevailing wisdom, that you accept the boom or bust nature of prospects like that in the hopes of getting a star. I, personally, am not entirely convinced that’s the greatest strategy in the world.
Depends on the definition of bust. Most won’t become stars but they usually stick around the league for a long time.
True, but “stick around the league for a long time” normally doesn’t do much good for the team that drafts them.
But a high floor-low ceiling guy won’t change the direction of the franchise either and you might have to lose that player in free agency too because paying them doesn’t make sense for a team not in playoff contention.
there are usually very few future stars in a draft, teams are just trying to guess who might become one with development. Average lottery pick has less than 1/3 chance of ever playing in an NBA All Star game and many are never even regular starters.
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As a guy possesses a respectable but not great three point percentage (as we consider sample size it’s probably good to remember he’s shot 270ish college threes, Duncan Robinson will shoot over 600 this season), and a very good FT rate, a great frame for his agility, a nose for the ball, and good passing instincts, it’s not hard to see him as a wing who can fit in seamlessly with good teams that have ball-dominant players slotted in.
teams with ball dominant players for the most part want to surround them with elite shooters that can space the floor and give them room to operate.
I like Franz athleticism, defense, and potential, but if he doesn’t get a consistent 3 point shot it will severely limit his opportunities IMHO. A Franz that has a quick release and can hit 38% from 3 is probably a starter in the NBA. A Franz with a slow release hitting 30% from 3 is going to have a tough time getting off the bench.
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They want to surround them with guys who can shoot AND play defense, it’s why Duncan doesn’t close games. Nor is it a forgone conclusion that Franz can’t shoot 38%+, at all. Obviously, if he can’t make a decent percentage (36%+) at a decent volume, he becomes, like, Torrey Craig. But I think that’s the threshold given his defensive ability, not being one of the best in the league (Kentavious Caldwell Pope starts on the champions). It just seems like you see his shot and see no progression and possibly regression, I see a small sample size and a good FT stroke and see potential. Obviously, time will tell.
You can’t win late round playoff series with major defensive liabilities on the floor.
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You seem to be reading way too much negativity into my comments. I am simply pointing out Franz needs to improve his jumper. This is no secret. I think mechanics kinda suck and his release is way too slow for the NBA.
If he was already a good 3 point shooter he would be a top 5 pick in the draft.