To be fair I think Henry is a guy that could easily side into a pretty defined NBA player archetype that is in high demand more easily than he can be what MSU is going to ask him to be this year. I have extreme doubts that he can shoulder a large part of a decent college offense, but that’s something the NBA will never ask of him. We know he can defend and shoot off the catch - Danny Green’s made like $80 million as a pro.
Conversely, I think Franz has a better shot of being a program carrying offensive player in college, but I’m less sure how his game transfers into the NBA.
Also, it’s one spot so I wouldn’t read into the “gap” too much. I think there are high odds Henry is a rotation player in the NBA, but almost no chance he’s a high level starter (he screams Mikal Bridges to me). I’d say Franz may not make it, but has a game that at least raises the potential that he could be a significant offensive contributor and an acceptable defender.
Yeah that’s what I’m saying - 30 NBA teams need another guy who can shoot off the catch and play good defense on multiple positions, and they need that skillset regardless of offensive/defensive scheme.
I mean, this guy is basically on every single one of the Dallas Mavericks’ (most efficient offense in NBA history this season) successful lineups - not even Kristaps is.
If Henry improves his shooting this year, he’s definitely an NBA no-brainer. Given his athleticism and defense it’s fair to say he has a higher floor than Franz. But it’s also pretty clear Franz has a much higher ceiling.
Franz played one season coming off a wrist injury to his shooting hand. I believe his shooting numbers were excellent prior to last year but I’m sure Dylan can weigh in. He also was excellent from the FT line which correlates with 3 point shooting. Henry has been consistently mediocre from 3 and the charity stripe. Franz has to prove it but I think it’s way more likely he’s a good NBA 3 point shooter than Henry.
Franz path to being a valuable NBA player is as fairly versatile offensive piece that plays solid D and hits 3s, maybe with some secondary ballhandling responsibilities. Henry’s path is pretty much the same, but with more emphasis on D. Both could move up to 1st round with a really good season.
I actually believe Matthews would’ve been a really solid nba player for a long time. As elite as he was defensively, teams always look for those types. I think if he wouldn’t have gotten hurt there was a decent shot he would’ve been drafted in the 2nd round and he’d have stuck if the right team picked him up. Hard to find dudes that good on defense with that frame/athleticism.
Matthews couldn’t shoot off the catch. Elite defenders in the NBA will play if they shoot well enough to not be left open.
I think the percentages exaggerate the gap here - the difference between Mikal Bridges hitting 39.3% on 3 attempts a game as a sophomore (and he was regarded as a good shooter) and Aaron Henry making 34.5% (mediocre) on 3 attempts a game is 1 make every 5 games.
Matthews isn’t done yet. We’ve seen it happen. Henry could easily round into form as a nice rotation player as well. We saw his 3 percentage improve last year.
@Dylan, it’s often said that FT %age is the more accurate predictor of whether a kid can improve his 3 shooting in the NBA. Is there a magic line there – if a guy’s above xx% from FT they’ll project three-point ability down the road? Or, how would the scouts look at Henry now, given he shot better from 3 last year but his FT %age was flat?