"Poole won’t shoot 50% from 3-point range all year, but his recent performances feel more like an emergence as a legitimate go-to scorer than a simple hot streak. "
I wouldn’t bet against JP shooting 50% from 3 for the year. He’s patient enough that he doesn’t take wild shots(although I did see him launch a 25 footer today), and the offense runs smoothly enough to get him some wide open looks.
Wouldn’t really call Poole’s shot selection simple (he takes more off the dribble threes than anyone on the roster), but I see what your saying. My point was just if Poole shoots 42% or something like that, he’s still having a great shooting year.
The fact that he finished non-conference play shooting 50% on some very tough off the dribble and deep shot attempts, all while playing next to 3 primary rotation players that are non-threats from deep is insane to me. I agree that it will be unlikely to keep it up…but Cassius Winston’s 50% last year felt like it was all wide open catch and shoots (and he’s down to 45% this year now that it’s tougher). Poole’s is a whole different story, and to me that speaks to his talent as a tough shot maker / growth as a primary threat, as Dylan mentioned in the recap. Sky is the limit for him in this offense.
More data vs legit teams is obviously gonna change a lot, but are other people also feeling that Matthews’ draft stock has gone down this year?
I haven’t been keeping an eye on that stuff so I might be totally wrong, but I feel like he’s basically the same player that he was last year + one year of age.
Obviously we’ve seen mid season breakthroughs before, perhaps that will happen.
Speaking of bets, anyone could have won a lot of money betting that Poole and Matthews would combine to play 64 minutes and commit zero turnovers in a competitive game. I know I’d have bet against that.
I feel like Matthews is more secure with the ball than he was a year ago, and I also think he’s more disciplined defensively than in 2017-18. I’d guess, though, that one of his main feedback points from last spring was to improve his jumper, so scouts would certainly be disappointed with that thus far.
I didn’t want to be the one to say anything…but I’m glad you did. I just don’t see how he gets drafted…even late second round. He looks like the same exact player as last year, great college player, not an NBA wing. I know everyone’s plan is for him to leave, and hopefully that works out after a deep tournament run where he plays great again. But it would be sad if he declares and goes undrafted. Weak draft this year though, but he’s still not trending upward anywhere that I have seen.
He’s definitely been able to go longer stretches without the “random unnecessary Matthews turnover” thing happening.
It’s just unfortunate that with his turnover rate drop (16.5 to 11.4) he’s also dropped his assist rate from 15.9 to 7.6. He’s got an assist rate of 6.3 and turnover rate of 13.7 in Kenpom tier A and B games. I honestly have no clue if he’ll get drafted without a decent improvement.
I’ll certainly take “great college player” on this team though.
The ones scouts are watching though are JP and Iggy B.
Yeah I have a feeling Iggy’s gonna creep his way up toward the lottery and JP seems like he’s juuuuust off the radar of most NBA big boards…for the moment. Tough situation for Charles when he was the guaranteed pro next year back in the pre-season. But as a fan, even when he is playing his best game, I haven’t felt like he is better than the 3rd best pro prospect on this team this year.
But if at season’s end, all three get drafted, I can only assume it will result in one heck of a run. And I’ve certainly enjoyed every step of the way so far
And frankly…I think Wilson, Livers, Johns as the team’s wings next year would be good enough to survive such a doomsday scenario. What a time.
Too funny really. We were all hoping that the December games would provide for the emergence of Brandon Johns and DDJ, with some minutes for AD as well. Basically, these guys got zero minutes in December. Beyond that, if anyone emerged during December, it was Brooks and Livers. So the 8-9-10 guys receded, while the 6 and 7 guys improved their standing. Sure looks like we run with 7 this season (we can be pleased with the talent of our top 7, fortunately).
I’m not concerned about these close/not sharp games whatsoever on my end.
However, I will say I’m more worried about the Penn St game than Indiana. First bump in competition in a month and Penn St seems to usually keep it close.
My hot take guess is the Penn St score ends up being closer than the Indiana score.
Most teams go through lulls sometime during the season. If we are lucky, maybe ours was December. However, I think it is more likely that Michigan is not as good as we once thought they were. Many teams have gotten better in December, but we haven’t.
I was never confident that we were a top 5 team. I have thought that we were definitely top 15, probably top 10. I’m not sure we are the best team in the Big 10 right now. The good news is that we can get better. Maybe the challenges of the Big Ten will help us up our game. We will find out soon enough.
I think Iggy’s ability to guard 2-4 without getting killed (every NBA team is desperate for wings) and his offensive game already being focused on 3s and shots at the rim (good finisher with both hands) will see him go in the 10-20 range. Basically TJ Warren but not as bad defensively. A starter but not an all-star.
Poole I think could go in the 2nd round as he can shoot it and is a solid all-around 2 guard who can pass and take care of the ball but not a great creator and while he’s good on D for us and should do fine against other 2 guards he’s not big enough to guard NBA forwards. That’s basically the definition of an average NBA backup 2 guard. There’s also a decent chance he can be more than that offensively with his shooting off the dribble and overall skill. Hopefully he’ll return for a Junior year where he’s the man on offense and is one of the better players in college basketball.
Matthews is defensively good enough to start in the NBA but there aren’t a lot of 2 guards in the NBA with his offensive efficiency issues, and he’s small for an NBA 3. Best case scenario he seems like a guy who might get better in Europe or bounce around until his shot improves, like Etwaun Moore did. So I could see him come back. I don’t think he’s a guy that would get drafted.
Livers I think will play 3/4 years and could really blossom as a scorer in years 3 and 4 and maybe become an NBA end of bench guy because he can shoot the 3, guard 3-5 on D okay and seems comfortable as a 4th or 5th option on the court. An Anthony Tolliver or Mike Scott kind of stretch forward being the goal here. I don’t know if he has the quickness to guard NBA 3s, so backup 4 who’s out there to give you 4 shooters at all times seems like what I’d expect if drafting him in the 2nd round.
If Iggy is drafted top 20 this year I will eat a lemon
Poole’s future depends on his ability of playing some PG, for which I believe that he can.
The good news is the draft is all wings and forwards, the bad news is that Iggy is such a perfect fit for the modern NBA with his extremely efficient game of getting to the rim and shooting 3s and rarely taking midrange shot and his being a solid defender if probably not too versatile one.
Most NBA teams drafting in the 2nd half of the first round have ball dominant guards and need forwards who can do what Iggy does and will like that he’s less raw than most prospects. Portland is starting Jake Layman for instance and might need to replace their other starting forward (Aminu). Houston is playing Danuel House a ton. Boston (picking 22nd and 23rd right now) may need to replace Marcus Morris (FA), a similar type to Iggy, or even 2 forwards since Brown or Tatum might be involved in an AD deal. Oklahoma City will probably take the best shooter available if they don’t trade their pick. Golden State is playing Jerebko a ton and a good chance they need to replace Durant’s minutes in the frontcourt. Their Iggy will be a year older too. Brooklyn’s core young guys are a 5 and some guards, so will be leaning forward as well. Milwaukee makes sense as a fit too.
TLDR: Most NBA teams are desperate for forward who don’t suck. They have point guards and now that 4s play a ton of 5 with the premium on skill and shooting, you have a real lack of talent at the 3-4 spots.