You nailed my thoughts exactly. He also has a high turnover rate and has struggled to defend wings. If the NBA used the “draft and follow” rules like the NHL then someone would take him and leave him at Michigan. In a two round draft where you can’t come back it is a huge gamble…unless he wants to be a G-League pro.
I think Juwan should point out the success Franz and Hunter had coming back as well as guys like Ivey and Davis. Get him in Camp Sanderson, have him work on more skills than stand still threes, and roll the dice. His draft stock only goes down next year if you assume it isn’t already zero this year.
This is the one thing I’d argue against with Houstan’s draft stock in some sense. I don’t think the fact that he’s shooting 36% is a deal breaker.
If anything I’d say maybe it is the diversity of types of threes that he’s taken that would be a concern. I don’t think scouts are saying 36% versus 42% is a big difference. Just my opinion though.
Definitely agree on the physical part of it too, just not sure how that is weighed for a guy who was never expected to create advantages that way.
I’m with you – he doesn’t look remotely ready to me either. He’s just barely ready to be a plus contributor in college. But we do know a bit about how the NBA sees it, so I can put myself in those shoes and see it that way, esp if it’s a weak draft.
I think he’s someone that Camp Sanderson could do wonders for. There are so many plays that he’s CLOSE to making, but he just doesn’t have quite enough explosiveness to finish. Also, think a lot of his travels come from him compensating from not have more strength in his legs. He could be a really good player next year.
Absolutely agree. I hope he decides to bet on himself, come back strong, still be a very young sophomore, and make lots more money on his first contract.
But the NBA doesn’t care, I bet. Every team thinks they probably have a better version of Camp Sanderson.
The percent is going to swing a few points every game with the erratic way his performances has gone. If he ends up 36-40% that’s about the same and it is “good” but short of elite. The issue is the diversity of threes for sure - which they can teach you (Duncan for example). The other issue is that despite being 6-8 he struggles with contested threes at the college level and he will face better defenders in the NBA.
If he leaves, he is hoping a team takes a chance on him in the second round and gives him that $3M contract that Poole, Livers, Iggy, etc. got and then he spends the next two years mostly in the G-League hoping to stick on the NBA roster and get the second deal.
If he stays, he gets to play on national TV and be one of the keys to our offense and hope he can show that his game can expand like it did for Hunter, Franz, Davis, Ivey, etc.
This is just part of being a shooter though. Especially a high volume freshman shooter.
How many freshmen have attempted 80+ threes? How many are shooting 35+%?
I’m not even trying to argue for his draft stock. I think the physical limitations are pretty obvious and he’s just not that fluid on the move either to shoot or get to the basket, but I also think that if we sit here and say “wow a year of Camp Sanderson would really help him” then NBA teams would say the same thing.
NIL has largely neutralized monetary reasons for entering draft early and playing in the G-League. the choice is mostly on life style and development. if he feels comfortable with the current coaching staff and doesn’t hate going to school, there is no reason to take a gamble not knowing which team might draft you. not every NBA franchise is equally good at developing talents.
Yeah I agree that shooting 36% in a vacuum isn’t a deal breaker. You can have an impressive 36% 3 point shooting season and obviously those numbers can swing based on chance. It’s just that 36% in a vacuum isn’t a wow number combined with his lack of diversity in shooting situations plus the fact that 50% of his misses are air balls. Those air balls aren’t “random chance”!
As for NIL, is anyone on our team making any money off of that besides Hunter? Caleb could maybe tap into that next year but it’s no guarantee. He won’t have the hype or personality for sure. We don’t really know if our basketball program can carry more than one dude at a time in that way if we aren’t title contenders. I guess last year each of the core guys could have been making a decent amount (an amount I have no idea of)
Or does Caleb have the same NIL issues as Moussa in that he literally can not make money?
For comparison, here are high major freshmen with 75+ 3PA. I’m too lazy to remove the guys who aren’t really freshmen (Wilcher, Mathurin, Lewis, Kriisa, etc.)
I know there are issues with student visas and NIL but they also both have jersey Ts listed at MDen, so I’m not completely sure on the specifics there.
I’m guessing that a student visa qualifies you to work for the university (which is what jersey sales would likely fall under), so that would cover being a TA or whatever. But the big money is to have the right to work elsewhere and to have an auto dealership give you money for a tweet
I really believe, and this is not a criticism of Caleb, but I believe he has not been freshman Franz for us this year. If I’m wrong about that I’m sure I’ll be corrected, and rightly so. I don’t want to post things that are blatantly untrue! But I don’t think he’s been freshman Franz. I also truly believe that if he comes back, he can and WILL be Sophomore Franz and have a great chance to be drafted in the lottery as Franz was. AND I believe that if he comes back next year, in two years, he could be NBA rookie Franz. Does he “take the money and run,” or does he invest in himself and possibly make much more? I don’t know. And yes, I know there will be those who will say, “Well, he can invest in himself in the G-league and make money while he does it.” Maybe a benefit to college athletics through the NIL program is that Caleb might be convinced that he can make enough in NIL money at Michigan to stay another year and get stronger, improve his skills, show that he really is the great shooter we all believe him to be…consistently, to be a leader on his team, and to have a terrific year in a wonderful environment…and THEN take the money and run…into a long and prosperous NBA career! Kinda like Franz has done. I must say, that’s my hope, but it’s not my life…it’s Caleb’s.
I must say, that’s my hope, but it’s not my life…it’s Caleb’s. 