Wondering who will be leaving us next year besides Jordsn Morgan.
McGary? Depends totally on what he hears from the league.
GRIII? He just quite frankly disappears in big games and cannot create his own shot. What NBA team would pick him after watching last night against State?
Nik? No doubt many NBA teams would welcome his shot. But… Who would be able to guard in the league?
My guess. I think they will All be back next year.
Probably just wishful thinking…
I think two of the three will depart. I’m just not sure yet who the two will be. Lots of basketball to play still. Anyways, enjoy them while we have them.
The chances that Nik goes pro grows with every game but…the chances Robinson comes back seems to be doing the same.
He seems to disappear in the big game. And even when he has decent numbers 14 point a game in the first two wins against Wis and Iowa he doesn’t seem to make a impact.
I would love to see all 3 back. I think McGary does the smart thing and comes back because I don’t think the NBA is going to tell him he is a 1st round lock, Robinson hasn’t moved above being potential yet , and as outstanding as Nik has been another year could push him lottery (which this yr I still don’t see, though admittingly he keeps it up and it might be.)
Odds are 1-2 will go pro, I think Robinson goes because his strongest draft asset is “potential” and the longer he stays the less potential is viewed. Nik and McGary stay one more yr.
Too early to tell, but I would be a little surprised if at least one didn’t go. I think Robinson is the most likely to leave, even if it’s not a good decision. I agree that it’s sometimes hard to understand the level of interest that NBA scouts have in him. He’s a good, sometimes very good player, but not a great one. He has too many quiet games, and too many areas where his game is not as good as it should be to be considered as an NBA first rounder.
Stauskas is playing as well as just about anyone at his position in the country on offense right now. He does leave something to be desired at the other end of the floor, but not every high NBA pick is a defensive ace. Pure speculation, I would put him as slightly more likely to stay than not, but I would not be shocked if he were gone.
As far as McGary, if he doesn’t play any more at all this year, it would seem like a stretch for him to try the draft, but perhaps he’s getting different advice. Certainly if he stayed for his junior year, and had a very productive, healthy season, his stock would go way up. Right now, if I were an NBA GM, I’d see him as injury-prone and lacking a real resume, other than a brief stretch of games in the tourney last year. On top of that, I think McGary really enjoys the college basketball experience, and would not necessarily be in a rush to leave. Again, pure speculation…I’d be a bit surprised if he’s made a firm decision yet.
What is with the idea that GRIII “Disappears in big games?”
What big games did GRIII disappear in? I’ll give you one- Michigan St. Other than that…? I’ll tell you right now to not count Duke. GRIII had the assignment of Jabari Parker. GRIII’s job was to not let the 6’8 235lb Parker, who came into the game averaging 22ppg, beat Michigan. GRIII was quiet on offense, but he sure as heck was a big reason that Michigan didn’t get blown out.
GRIII also has the ability to come up huge for Michigan. Michigan nearly beat #1 Arizona because of GRIII going for 20 points and 4 rebounds on 8 for 9 shooting.
17 points and 6 rebounds on 6 of 10 shooting vs Stanford. Held Stanford’s best player, Powell, to 10 points.
14 points on 6 of 8 shooting @ Wisconsin. Held Wisconsin’s best player, Dekker, to 5 of 13 shooting and 10 points.
14 points and 9 rebounds vs Iowa.
Listen, I was as upset about GRIII’s performance last night as anyone, but the dude deserves props where they are due. Comments like “Quite frankly, he disappears in big games” is just wrong.
I honestly think Beilein’s high ball screen offense kind of hides just how good GR3 is going to be at the next level. If you can’t run the PnR in this offense, you’ll never be able to be more than a third or fourth option.
He’s improved his handle, has a consistent mid range jumper, can post up, has gotten bigger physically, etc
To say he hasn’t improved is completely false. My only issue with him is that his jumper takes too long to get off, it seems like he reaches the apex of his release at sluggish pace. Correct that and keep extending his range and ballhandling and he’ll do excellent at the pro level, regardless of where he gets drafted in the first round.
People thinking we’re going to have a great year this year and lose no one is LOL worthy. You only have guys come back when they underachieve and I’d rather win big this year. We have more than enough talent to lose the big 3 and not miss a beat.
I don’t think we can lose all three and not miss a beat. I think if we lose 1, we are better next year than this year If we lose 2, we don’t miss a beat. If we lose all three, we are worse next year and mostly because of depth.
Robinson’s biggest flaw in the eyes of NBA scouts is going to be poor outside shooting. He’s a small forward without the inside muscle of a guy like Brandon Dawson. His passing and ball handling skills are adequate, but nothing special. To be first round valuable, he has to be strong on 3 pointers, and he hasn’t been this year. 28% is pretty poor. He had 5 relatively open 3 point looks against State and missed them all. His ability to create his own shot against NBA level competition is by no means demonstrated.
Andre Iguodala shot 27 % from 3 at Arizona
We took a full class this year, so we’d have one more guy next year than last.
Caris or Nik
We’d loose a shooter and ELITE PnR player but Caris doesn’t need a ball screen to create, better defender, better rebounder, slasher and will improve his jumpshot off the bounce, which would significantly increase his high ball screen efficiency.
GR3 or Kameron Chatman
Lose a transition athlete, good perimeter defender, ELITE and efficient scorer in the paint. Gain another guy who can execute PnR, better rebounder and better shooter.
Mitch and Morgan or Wilson, Doyle, Donnal
Lose PnR defenders, rebounding, solid interior defenders, ELITE passing bigman and a ELITE helpside defender who cause tons of blocks and steals. Gain perimeter shooting and depth.
Zak and Derrick are going to make MAJOR leaps. Caris has another leap left to go imo. Might add another late Spring signee or two.
Walton
Caris
Zak
Chatman
Horford
Pretty darn potent squad and of similar talent and DEEPER than this year
You are talking absolute best case scenarios for the players next year. I’ll take you seriously when you provide a middle-ground, realistic approach to your analysis of next year’s team.
You are talking absolute best case scenarios for the players next year. I'll take you seriously when you provide a middle-ground, realistic approach to your analysis of next year's team.
What wasn’t realistic about my approach?
It’s statistical fact that ORTG and DRTG jumps SIGNIFICANTLY from freshman to sophomore year. It’s statistical fact that higher rated recruits produce at a higher threshold sooner.
I think I was pretty blunt about what we’re losing with our bigmen and we aren’t getting a ton back.
As for Chatman? Aren’t you the guy saying he would start? From what I’ve seen experts say, he is an elite mid range shooter, can post, can PnR, is an elite rebounder.
Are we not getting deeper? We have one more scholarship player at minimum next year, if we don’t sign any more guys.
The only thing I’m going on a limb for is Caris and that’s no secret that I think he has a much higher ceiling than Nik. Majority of what I said would still remain true even if he didn’t become a better shooter, probably lose an elite PnR player, but with Chatman would have more guys who can execute it.
You tell me the “middle-ground, realistic approach”? Guys come on here saying me and MattD are this and that but the only people willing to break down the statistics seem to be us two. Help me understand, because I like to learn, why I am bullish on my projections?
Wondering who will be leaving us next year besides Jordsn Morgan. McGary? Depends totally on what he hears from the league. GRIII? He just quite frankly disappears in big games and cannot create his own shot. What NBA team would pick him after watching last night against State? Nik? No doubt many NBA teams would welcome his shot. But..... Who would be able to guard in the league?My guess. I think they will All be back next year.
Probably just wishful thinking…
Well sure, when you paint it like that none of the 3 seem draftable, but you’re also taking a very pessimistic view of all 3 . For Nik, I’m not really sure how much an extra season in Ann Arbor would really benefit him. He could definitely add strength, but he will never be an elite defender. For me, as long as he can play “I’ll take it Defense” he can be valuable to an NBA team.
GR3 is a freak athlete who doesn’t need the ball in his hands. His defense has improved leaps and bounds from last year and can be very useful on an NBA team with other talented players to create shots and dump off for him. Oh, and to say GR3 disappears in Big games is flat out wrong.
McGary is more of a wait and see thing. If he can prove he’s healthy in workouts an NBA team will take him in the 1st round.
Obviously this is the complete opposite view of the OP, but I really can’t fault any of these players for living out their dream. Having 5 UM players drafted in 2 years is a good thing!
Here is a stat for you. GRIII worst 3 point fg % for us at 28%.
Averages 4 rebounds.
But is being considered an NBA prospect. Don’t get it.
Here is a stat for you. GRIII worst 3 point fg % for us at 28%. Averages 4 rebounds. But is being considered an NBA prospect. Don't get it.
Look up Michael Carter WIlliams or Andre Iguodala’s stats in college and compare to the NBA.
Different offensive and defensive rules. More spacing, wider lanes, etc
Guys, there’s no chance that GRIII stays. Zero.
McGary and Nik are still wait and see. If either of them are projected as 1st round locks, then they’re gone as well.
If all three go, we’ll definitely see a drop off, but I don’t think it’s as big as people might think. Plus, MSU and Iowa will lose a few key players, which should help.
It’s not a fact that Caris LeVert “WILL” be a better shooter next year.
It’s not a fact that Walton and Irvin “WILL” take “MAJOR” leaps next year.
It’s not a fact that Chatman will be able to come in and produce on GRIII level.
Can these happen? Yes, so I’m not going to be baited into arguing any one of them, because I’ve seen how ridiculous you can be. I realize, as as much as anybody, the improvement from first to second year players like Morris, Burke, Stauskas, and LeVert. However, there are a lot of guys that don’t take “MAJOR” leaps from freshman to Sophomore year like Stu Douglass, Zack Novak, Tim Hardaway Jr., Jordan Morgan, Evan Smotrycz, Glenn Robinson III, etc.
We view depth differently. Depth, to me, is more than just # of scholarship players. Depth, to me, is about guys that can give you above-average minutes in the rotation. Michigan will have more scholarship players in the front court next year, but does not come close to having more depth than a McGary-Morgan-Horford position at the 5.
The reason I hate doing this with you is because you are so absolutely unwilling to accept anyone else’s opinion. Heck, I don’t even disagree with your point in general. I’ve posted this before, elsewhere:
"The team won’t be as good next year (what teams are after losing three players to the NBA), but it will still be a good team.)
PG: Walton / Albrecht (same players, better next year than this year)
SG: LeVert / Irvin / Albrecht (same players, better next year than this year)
SF: Irvin / Chatman (lose Stauskas, worse this year than next year)
PF: Chatman / Donnal / Wilson (lose GRIII, push due to having a capable backup)
C: Horford / Doyle (lose McGary Morgan, slightly worse next year)
Think about how much better our guards have been from freshman to sophomore year.
Darius Morris…
Trey Burke…
Nik Stauskas…
Caris LeVert…
If their situations don’t get you excited about what Walton/Irvin could be next year, then I don’t know what will. LeVert should also continue to improve (did you know he’s only a couple weeks older than Irvin?) I don’t see any reason Chatman wouldn’t be ready from day 1 to step in at PF. He won’t be as good as GRIII out of the gate, but I think the position is a wash because Donnal will be able to back-up much better than anyone this year. Horford+Doyle is a drop off from Horford+Morgan+McGary, but I don’t think its a devastating one."
and this:
"People overreact. This topic comes up every year…
“Without Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims, Michigan is screwed next year.” - In steps Darius Morris and Hardaway Jr.
“Without Darius Morris, Michigan is screwed next year.” - In steps Trey Burke.
“Without Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr., Michigan is screwed next year.” - In steps Stauskas.
“Without Stauskas and GRIII, Michigan is screwed next year.” - In steps (LeVert? Walton? Irvin? Chatman?)"
-Can LeVert/Irvin be a better SG/SF combination than Stauskas/LeVert? Maybe, but I don’t think it is a “FACT”. Also, who plays Irvin’s role?
-Can anyone come in and play the 4 as well as a projected 1st rounder? Maybe, but I don’t think it is a “FACT”.
-I think that the drop off at the C position is pretty much a given. You don’t replace a 5th year Senior and a projected 1st/early 2nd rounder with a two freshmen and expect to be better.
Regardless, I expect another one of your “HA. Worst post I’ve ever read” type responses that make discussions like this not even seem worth the time put into it.
Where did I say it was fact that LeVert will be a better shooter without saying he has another leap imo? The other things I said he does better than Nik remain true. In fact, show me where I said any of this was fact and not opinion? I even qualify sentences with “to me” and “in my opinion.”
I didn’t say Chatman would come in and produce to GR3’s level. I said he has a different game and offers versatility in ways that Glenn does not provide currently.
If you don’t think Glenn took a leap this year then I don’t know what to tell you. He isn’t producing at an insane rate because the usage isn’t consistently there in our PnR heavy offense.
Depth is the amount of bodies who can give valuable minutes. Has nothing to do with the quality of the production. Name who can’t produce at a high level next year.
“The best thing about freshmen is that they become sophomores.”
As for statistical data to see why I have some of my beliefs on sophomore making a significant jump from their freshman year. Tons of articles to read up on…
http://www.bigtengeeks.com/2009/11/they-grow-up-so-fast.html
What is your definition of “leap”?
2012/2013:
PER 19.9, TS% 62.6, EFG% 61.1, TRB% 9.7, ORtg 131.8, DRtg 100.6
2013/2013
PER 19.9, TS% 58.0, EFG% 54.5, TRB% 8.8, ORtg 118.6, DRtg 101.4
If that is your definition of “leap”, then I expect everyone on our team to take “leaps” next year.
Also, here is most of your post:
"Caris or Nik
We’d loose a shooter and ELITE PnR player but Caris doesn’t need a ball screen to create, better defender, better rebounder, slasher and will improve his jumpshot off the bounce, which would significantly increase his high ball screen efficiency.
GR3 or Kameron Chatman
Lose a transition athlete, good perimeter defender, ELITE and efficient scorer in the paint. Gain another guy who can execute PnR, better rebounder and better shooter.
Mitch and Morgan or Wilson, Doyle, Donnal
Lose PnR defenders, rebounding, solid interior defenders, ELITE passing bigman and a ELITE helpside defender who cause tons of blocks and steals. Gain perimeter shooting and depth.
Zak and Derrick are going to make MAJOR leaps."
Statements like “Zak and Derrick are going to make MAJOR leaps.” seem to suggest that you are saying there is no chance that they improve at THJ, GRIII, Doglass, Novak, Smotrycz, etc. rates.
Anyways, you must really get your rocks off on arguing, because as I pointed out… I don’t even disagree with your premise. I just feel that it is optimistic to expect to lose 3 players to the NBA, a 5th year starter to graduation, replace them with 4 freshmen, and not miss a beat.
To lose Morgan, McGary, Stauskas, and GRIII and not miss a beat, I think ALL of these things would need to happen.
Caris LeVert would have to take the next step and become a Stauskas-level player.
Irvin would have to take the next step and become a LeVert 2013-2014 level player.
Chatman would have to come in and perform at GRIII (projected 1st round pick) level as a true freshman.
Doyle and/or Donnal would have to come in and perform at 5th year senior Morgan level.
…And even then we don’t have any Wing player off the bench playing a freshman Irvin role.
Can this all happen? Sure it can. I wouldn’t EXPECT it to all happen, though. You are more than entitled to your opinion, though. Also, we have different opinions of what depth means in sports.
I’m sure you guys can hash out your own debates. Just want to add this food for thought - Derrick Walton has already taken a major leap THIS year in my view. Obviously, none of us can predict with any certainty whether Derrick will continue the upward trajectory, but I’d be inclined to say that Derrick will at minimum be an upper tier Big Ten PG next year. You can see the confidence growing with each game, the game has slowed down for him over the past month and we are starting to see why he was such a valued commodity coming out of high school.