Who will turn Pro after this year?

Michigan Basketball
21
What is your definition of "leap"?

2012/2013:
PER 19.9, TS% 62.6, EFG% 61.1, TRB% 9.7, ORtg 131.8, DRtg 100.6

2013/2013
PER 19.9, TS% 58.0, EFG% 54.5, TRB% 8.8, ORtg 118.6, DRtg 101.4

If that is your definition of “leap”, then I expect everyone on our team to take “leaps” next year.

Also, here is most of your post:

"Caris or Nik
We’d loose a shooter and ELITE PnR player but Caris doesn’t need a ball screen to create, better defender, better rebounder, slasher and will improve his jumpshot off the bounce, which would significantly increase his high ball screen efficiency.

GR3 or Kameron Chatman
Lose a transition athlete, good perimeter defender, ELITE and efficient scorer in the paint. Gain another guy who can execute PnR, better rebounder and better shooter.

Mitch and Morgan or Wilson, Doyle, Donnal
Lose PnR defenders, rebounding, solid interior defenders, ELITE passing bigman and a ELITE helpside defender who cause tons of blocks and steals. Gain perimeter shooting and depth.

Zak and Derrick are going to make MAJOR leaps."

Statements like “Zak and Derrick are going to make MAJOR leaps.” seem to suggest that you are saying there is no chance that they improve at THJ, GRIII, Doglass, Novak, Smotrycz, etc. rates.

Anyways, you must really get your rocks off on arguing, because as I pointed out… I don’t even disagree with your premise. I just feel that it is optimistic to expect to lose 3 players to the NBA, a 5th year starter to graduation, replace them with 4 freshmen, and not miss a beat.

To lose Morgan, McGary, Stauskas, and GRIII and not miss a beat, I think ALL of these things would need to happen.

Caris LeVert would have to take the next step and become a Stauskas-level player.
Irvin would have to take the next step and become a LeVert 2013-2014 level player.
Chatman would have to come in and perform at GRIII (projected 1st round pick) level as a true freshman.
Doyle and/or Donnal would have to come in and perform at 5th year senior Morgan level.
…And even then we don’t have any Wing player off the bench playing a freshman Irvin role.

Can this all happen? Sure it can. I wouldn’t EXPECT it to all happen, though. You are more than entitled to your opinion, though. Also, we have different opinions of what depth means in sports.

I love this site, and the comments made by everyone. Guard yourself against “taking the bait” from people who just want to create an argument under the guise of perceived superiority. Anyone can cite articles, stats, columnists, and draft sites till it becomes nauseating. A good discussion is inclusive in nature, not alienating. Eventually a self-promoter runs out of ammunition if you don’t engage them, and they end up opining to themselves. Don’t respond to an opinion veiled as an invitation to argue, it’s pointless. It lowers the high quality of this site, IMO. I plan on heeding my own advice as well.

22
What is your definition of "leap"?

Zak and Derrick are going to make MAJOR leaps."

Statements like “Zak and Derrick are going to make MAJOR leaps.” seem to suggest that you are saying there is no chance that they improve at THJ, GRIII, Doglass, Novak, Smotrycz, etc. rates.

Anyways, you must really get your rocks off on arguing, because as I pointed out… I don’t even disagree with your premise. I just feel that it is optimistic to expect to lose 3 players to the NBA, a 5th year starter to graduation, replace them with 4 freshmen, and not miss a beat.

To lose Morgan, McGary, Stauskas, and GRIII and not miss a beat, I think ALL of these things would need to happen.

Caris LeVert would have to take the next step and become a Stauskas-level player.
Irvin would have to take the next step and become a LeVert 2013-2014 level player.
Chatman would have to come in and perform at GRIII (projected 1st round pick) level as a true freshman.
Doyle and/or Donnal would have to come in and perform at 5th year senior Morgan level.
…And even then we don’t have any Wing player off the bench playing a freshman Irvin role.

Can this all happen? Sure it can. I wouldn’t EXPECT it to all happen, though. You are more than entitled to your opinion, though. Also, we have different opinions of what depth means in sports.

GR3’s usage increased 10 points. Surprised you didn’t mention that. On top of that, much better ball handler, defender and shooter.

Also, this cop-out of saying “seems to suggest” is just that. You keep putting words in my mouth and arguing them. Is it for certain that they make major leaps? No. In my opinion, I shouldn’t have to preface every post with “in my opinion” because IT IS AN INTERNET FORUM, it’s inherent that everything is speculation and opinion. I even included multiple links to back up WHY I feel like I do about them taking leaps. I have NEVER seen you linked to any kind of supporting evidence for the claims you make on here.

You wrote “I don’t think we can lose all three and not miss a beat.” I don’t agree. Simple.

We aren’t replacing 4 guys with freshman, we’re replacing them with a Junior (LeVert), Sophomore (Irvin), freshman (Chatman) and senior (Horford). Walton notches another year under his belt and we have more bigman depth with Doyle/Wilson/Donnal. I’m pretty sure I stated that looking for wing/ guard spring signees would most likely occur since we’d have two open scholarships in the mass exodus scenario.

The key word is your whole post “I wouldn’t expect it to.” I fully expect it to. Remember, you quoted me first with

“You are talking absolute best case scenarios for the players next year. I’ll take you seriously when you provide a middle-ground, realistic approach to your analysis of next year’s team.”

Pretty much the more snobbish than anything I’ve written in this thread.

23

Stauskas #16 and trending upward
Glenn #26
Mitch #33

24

Even when I provide “supporting evidence” that GRIII hasn’t taken “leaps” from freshman year to sophomore year, you write it off as me being wrong and you being right.

2012/2013:
PER 19.9, TS% 62.6, EFG% 61.1, TRB% 9.7, ORtg 131.8, DRtg 100.6

2013/2013
PER 19.9, TS% 58.0, EFG% 54.5, TRB% 8.8, ORtg 118.6, DRtg 101.4

That is pretty good supporting evidence for saying GRIII didn’t take “leaps” in his improvement. You won’t admit it though, because you are never wrong.

Really, compare the change in LeVert’s and Stauskas’ advanced stats from FR to SO to the change in GRIII’s stats. LeVert and Stauskas took leaps in their improvement. GRIII didn’t.

25

Dude do you understand the concept of usage in relation to production?

He’s broaden his skillset and kept a steady pace without Burke at the helm. All while being in a ball screen offense that doesn’t suite him.

26

Nik’s and Caris’ usage went up also… yet their number are up considerably more than GRIII’s across the board.

GRIII is really good, but he didn’t take a “leap” from freshman to sophomore year. Did he broaden his skillset? Yes. Did he take a LeVert/Morris/Stauskas/Burke-like leap? No. Not even close.

27

GR3 went from having Burke produce his offense to producing a significant more of his own offense without a drop off, that is growth. That is a leap. Nik and Caris can run PnR and aren’t going from off the ball to on the ball players…

28

Can you guys stop arguing and just agree to disagree. It’s counter productive to convince someone who has already made their mind up.