Honestly wouldn’t have Spike in the rotation next year
OK. Still leaves the same question though that is what I was curious about. There are 120 minutes a game at the 1-3 positions. Stauskas is playing 35 or so of those minutes. You said you want 10-15 minutes for spike. That leaves 70-75 minutes for Walton, Levert, and Irvin to share. How are you dividing those minutes? One of those guys will be our second best returning scorer.
No I don't if you are talking about next year. So that would be 70-75 minutes (because Stauskas is looking at 35 at one wing and you are saying 10-15 for Spike) split between Walton, Levert, and Irvin. Would be interesting to see how you are trying to divide those 70-75 minutes up and why playing each of these guys less, or one of them not very much at all, would give us a better chance of winning than playing Irvin at the 4.
No, we should have played Irvin, but going into NEXT YEAR, I would like to not play Irvin at the 4. Get it?
Robinson was out so that means you think we should have played Stauskas at the 4 right, to not have a 2 big lineup?
I never said anything about Walton. There is no lineup for rebounding, just better coaching and player mindfulness. I simply think we need to put the ball in Leverts hands and let him create towards the rim, also PnR with him or Stauskas and McGary. Levert/Walton/Irvin should be getting the bulk of the guard minutes with Spike coming in around 10-15 a game. Next year, I expect Donnal or Chatman to man the 4. Irvin should never in his life be playing the 4 in our system.
Irvin backs ups the 2/3 next year. Levert is the second PG not Spike.
Gotcha I would be ok with that. Basically just bringing Spike in for foul trouble situations. Whether JB will also is another story Spike has been pretty solid for the past two years as a backup PG. 30 seems about 3-5 minutes short for Levert and 20 seems about 5 short for Irvin in an ideal world, but that is just nit picking and I may just be optimistic about what those guys will be bringing to the table. I also am of the opinion that this current discussion is purely academic as a certain Canadian individual is on his way out if he remains near his current level of play, but that is a discussion for another time when we get more data. For now, go compare his numbers thus far to JJ Redick’s junior year when JJ was 1st team all american and you will be pleasantly surprised. And JJ was, of course, not much more than just a shooter.
That rotation is pretty realistic if you just take out Spike like that. I am not pulling these stats again but JB has historically played about 3.75 guys 30-35 minutes a game.
Honestly wouldn’t have Spike in the rotation next year
OK. Still leaves the same question though that is what I was curious about. There are 120 minutes a game at the 1-3 positions. Stauskas is playing 35 or so of those minutes. You said you want 10-15 minutes for spike. That leaves 70-75 minutes for Walton, Levert, and Irvin to share. How are you dividing those minutes? One of those guys will be our second best returning scorer.
No I don't if you are talking about next year. So that would be 70-75 minutes (because Stauskas is looking at 35 at one wing and you are saying 10-15 for Spike) split between Walton, Levert, and Irvin. Would be interesting to see how you are trying to divide those 70-75 minutes up and why playing each of these guys less, or one of them not very much at all, would give us a better chance of winning than playing Irvin at the 4.
No, we should have played Irvin, but going into NEXT YEAR, I would like to not play Irvin at the 4. Get it?
Robinson was out so that means you think we should have played Stauskas at the 4 right, to not have a 2 big lineup?
I never said anything about Walton. There is no lineup for rebounding, just better coaching and player mindfulness. I simply think we need to put the ball in Leverts hands and let him create towards the rim, also PnR with him or Stauskas and McGary. Levert/Walton/Irvin should be getting the bulk of the guard minutes with Spike coming in around 10-15 a game. Next year, I expect Donnal or Chatman to man the 4. Irvin should never in his life be playing the 4 in our system.
Irvin backs ups the 2/3 next year. Levert is the second PG not Spike.
You can say sample size and all but my sample size is 6 games and yours is 4 possessions. Also that AdjD stat, in which we were 34th in the country prior to this game and more likely than not higher after the game, is adjusted for competition already.
Sample size and adjusting for competition are your friends, remember that. Talk to me in march about efficiency.
6 games…that’s laughable. My sample size is SEVEN YEARS. Why do we have a culture where defense/rebounding is substandard? Not acceptable, especially when the same issue is cyclical.
Charlotte shot 39% tonight. They made some big shots ad got into the lane, but with the way fouls are called. it's tough to stop without fouling. Look how many fouls Nik drew before he was hurt. We were out-rebounded tonight because we missed so many shots. They has 16 ORs, but we had 14. We held Charlotte scoreless for a long stretch of the second half. Our problem tonight was not defense or rebounding, it was offense. Caris missed 18 minutes of the first half. GRIII missed most of the game with injury. Everyone but Nik missed a ton of shots. We were sloppy. Two bigs was not the answer. We played that line-up quite a bit, and it did not help.
I may agree if defense wasn’t an issue historically, but the fact that we have had defensive/rebounding issues prior to the rule changes leads me to believe that rule changes have nothing to do with it. The problem is simple, we can’t keep the opposition in front of us, we don’t box out, and we don’t close out. It really is that simple.
Dude - the strategy will not change, so you are just banging your head against the wall if you are hoping it will. And I have news for you - you can win at basketball without being a great rebounding or defensive team. You are certainly not a troll, but your posts are certainly negative to the point of being obnoxious. As far as your complaints against the current coaching staff, would you prefer Amaker? Ellerbe? Fisher and Frieder and the NCAA violations that come with? who the hell is out there that would do a better job than Beilein has? Since you hate our current direction so much, I would like to ask you who you would like to coach our team instead?
Yes you can win without being a great rebounding/defensive team, but you can’t win with an incompetent defensive/rebounding team - which is exactly what we are.
I simply think Coach B needs to modify the so called “strategy” rather than scrap it in its entirety. My posts aren’t negative, it’s called realistic.
This is definitely a good strategy to think about basketball in EV+ terms as opposed to result oriented but you have a little too much doom and gloom in here in my opinion. Not quite the realistic take you make it out to be.
Incompetent is a little strong considering Kenpom has us as 34th (out of 351) in AdjD (i.e, “Adjusted defensive efficiency - An estimate of the defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions) a team would have against the average D-I offense”). Tonight we forced 17 turnovers and held them to 39% shooting so that number is not going to skyrocket toward the bottom of college basketball and might even improve.
For rebounding, offensive rebounding % is ranked 227 but defensive rebounding is ranked 15 so that can hardly be called incompetent either.
My, my, my…how the stats can change in one game. Michigan is currently #200 in off. rebounding %(actually an improvement, how pathetic is that?), and fell to #45 in defensive rebound %. We are now #109 in effective FG% defense and #244 in 3 point % defense (the opposition is shooting 36% from 3).
These stats would tend to support the argument that Michigan doesn’t rebound well, doesn’t keep the opposition in front of the defense, and damn sure doesn’t close out.
All this with the majority of games vs cupcakes, if you think these numbers will improve come conference play, I feel bad for you.
In any event, I don’t give a damn what the advanced metrics reflect, my eyes, and I’m sure your eyes if you’re being objective, tell me we are a poor defensive/rebounding team.
I guess the thing that's so frustrating for me is that we've been a poor defensive/rebounding team since Beilien's arrival. At some point the "strategy" has to change if you expect to improve as a team. First and foremost we need to recruit more players that are defensive oriented, tough players.
If you guys think this is bad, wait until next year when our frontcourt is composed of Horford/Donnal/Wilson/Doyle. Your appreciation for Mitch will be at an all time high.
When the team is winning I guess it’s easy to dismiss me as the “troll”, but the problems were there last year as well, we just had a great offense to mask those problems.
I think as the season progresses you guys will come to see im not a “troll” blowing smoke out if my a$%, but rather a die hard fan/alumni that is truly concerned with the long term direction of this program. We are on the brink of being VERY good consistently, but I don’t think we can sustain success playing this style of basketball.
Gosh you love to “hear your own voice” don’t you?
Why don’t you write a note to Beilein…maybe he’ll take your advice.
You say you’re worried about the long term direction of our program?!? WTF?! This program was a ship wreck that Beilein pieced together. You don’t think we can sustain success playing this style but we’ve been having success after NOT having success.
Tourney drought? Over.
B10 Champ drought? Over.
National Title appearance drought? Over.
We’re relevant because of what Beilein is doing. He deserves more respect and credit than some incessant fan that thinks they have the answer to some of their own concerns.
Come off of it buddy, bottom line is that this team is horrible on the defensive end of the court and quite frankly, sub standard in a half court set on offense as well. Whether you want to admit that or not is your prerogative, but don’t shoot the messenger.
I understand that Coach B has improved the program but that doesn’t make him immune from criticism, no coach is immune from criticism. If the team can benefit from being better defensively then who the hell are you to tell me I have no right to voice that opinion?
I want to take the program from good to great. In my view, you simply can’t do that by neglecting defense/rebounding by design. If you don’t like that then that’s your problem, deal with it accordingly.
…you started a thread called “The Truth” with this same topic.
To demonstrate just how misleading a metric like defensive efficiency rating can be this early in the season, Michigan is currently ranked #46 is defensive efficiency, while MSU is ranked #52. There is simply no possible scenario in which Michigan’s defense is superior to MSU in any form or fashion, end of discussion. Those numbers are meaningless this early in the year to a large extent and we all know it.
Charlotte shot 39% tonight. They made some big shots ad got into the lane, but with the way fouls are called. it's tough to stop without fouling. Look how many fouls Nik drew before he was hurt. We were out-rebounded tonight because we missed so many shots. They has 16 ORs, but we had 14. We held Charlotte scoreless for a long stretch of the second half. Our problem tonight was not defense or rebounding, it was offense. Caris missed 18 minutes of the first half. GRIII missed most of the game with injury. Everyone but Nik missed a ton of shots. We were sloppy. Two bigs was not the answer. We played that line-up quite a bit, and it did not help.
Rebuttal on a few points: (1) It is possible we should have fouled more to prevent guys scoring at the rim. (2) If we had generated a few more steals or gotten a few more defensive rebounds, we could have initiated a few more fast breaks, presumably helping our offense which obviously needed it. (3) I think we played most of the “two bigs” lineup in the second half, when we made our comeback (although I concede that you could attribute that to having LeVert back in the lineup).
Y’all think its a good thing with Stauskas playing like he’s playing!! I see otherwise, not good for the team, he hunts too much for his shot and breaks formation too often not sticking with the game plan, I know my squad and can already see there will be problems if it continues!
Charlotte shot 39% tonight. They made some big shots ad got into the lane, but with the way fouls are called. it's tough to stop without fouling. Look how many fouls Nik drew before he was hurt. We were out-rebounded tonight because we missed so many shots. They has 16 ORs, but we had 14. We held Charlotte scoreless for a long stretch of the second half. Our problem tonight was not defense or rebounding, it was offense. Caris missed 18 minutes of the first half. GRIII missed most of the game with injury. Everyone but Nik missed a ton of shots. We were sloppy. Two bigs was not the answer. We played that line-up quite a bit, and it did not help.
Rebuttal on a few points: (1) It is possible we should have fouled more to prevent guys scoring at the rim. (2) If we had generated a few more steals or gotten a few more defensive rebounds, we could have initiated a few more fast breaks, presumably helping our offense which obviously needed it. (3) I think we played most of the “two bigs” lineup in the second half, when we made our comeback (although I concede that you could attribute that to having LeVert back in the lineup).
(1) and (2) We had 12 steals, which is a lot, and 17 turnovers forced overall. Fouling more would have gotten our guys in foul trouble when we were already playing with a short bench. The kind of minimal contact that was being called would not have generated more turnovers. We shot 3 times the free throws that Charlotte did, which kept us in the game despite abominably poor shooting. (3) I honestly don’t recall who was on the floor during that 10 minute stretch, but, even though Charlotte was being shut down, we still struggled mightily to score.
Charlotte shot 39% tonight. They made some big shots ad got into the lane, but with the way fouls are called. it's tough to stop without fouling. Look how many fouls Nik drew before he was hurt. We were out-rebounded tonight because we missed so many shots. They has 16 ORs, but we had 14. We held Charlotte scoreless for a long stretch of the second half. Our problem tonight was not defense or rebounding, it was offense. Caris missed 18 minutes of the first half. GRIII missed most of the game with injury. Everyone but Nik missed a ton of shots. We were sloppy. Two bigs was not the answer. We played that line-up quite a bit, and it did not help.
Rebuttal on a few points: (1) It is possible we should have fouled more to prevent guys scoring at the rim. (2) If we had generated a few more steals or gotten a few more defensive rebounds, we could have initiated a few more fast breaks, presumably helping our offense which obviously needed it. (3) I think we played most of the “two bigs” lineup in the second half, when we made our comeback (although I concede that you could attribute that to having LeVert back in the lineup).
(1) and (2) We had 12 steals, which is a lot, and 17 turnovers forced overall. Fouling more would have gotten our guys in foul trouble when we were already playing with a short bench. The kind of minimal contact that was being called would not have generated more turnovers. We shot 3 times the free throws that Charlotte did, which kept us in the game despite abominably poor shooting. (3) I honestly don’t recall who was on the floor during that 10 minute stretch, but, even though Charlotte was being shut down, we still struggled mightily to score.
Okay, fine. I was mainly just arguing for arguments sake. We obviously didn’t shoot well.
Y'all think its a good thing with Stauskas playing like he's playing!! I see otherwise, not good for the team, he hunts too much for his shot and breaks formation too often not sticking with the game plan, I know my squad and can already see there will be problems if it continues!
He’s not selfish, if that’s what you’re getting at. And if anyone would prove to be a better shot maker than him, I’m sure he’d pass them the ball (he has more assists than anyone). He’s one of the better shot creators on the team. And if he’s detrimental to the offense, why do his teammates keep giving him the ball? I don’t see a lot of differences in his role as Hardaway’s last year. But I could be wrong. What do you think he SHOULD be doing?
Is there anywhere we can get the usage stats by player? I'm curious to see how much the ball is in Spike, Levert, Nik and Walton's hands.
On the season, Nik has taken 69 shots, Caris 58, GRIII 55, Walton 45. Nik has also played the most minutes and shoots over 50%(best on the team) from the field, including 47% on threes. He’s scoring over 20 per game on only 11 shots per game. He also has a lot of assists. There is NOTHING to criticize here.
Is there anywhere we can get the usage stats by player? I'm curious to see how much the ball is in Spike, Levert, Nik and Walton's hands.
On the season, Nik has taken 69 shots, Caris 58, GRIII 55, Walton 45. Nik has also played the most minutes and shoots over 50%(best on the team) from the field, including 47% on threes. He’s scoring over 20 per game on only 11 shots per game. He also has a lot of assists. There is NOTHING to criticize here.
Not necessarily directing it towards Nik. He has a ton of assist but he definitely has more tunnel vision than Caris, which is why I’d prefer him to be the lead guard. When I say usage, I mean how much the ball is in their hands. Walton and Spike shouldn’t be close to Caris or Nik in usage which is what I fear.
Is there anywhere we can get the usage stats by player? I'm curious to see how much the ball is in Spike, Levert, Nik and Walton's hands.
On the season, Nik has taken 69 shots, Caris 58, GRIII 55, Walton 45. Nik has also played the most minutes and shoots over 50%(best on the team) from the field, including 47% on threes. He’s scoring over 20 per game on only 11 shots per game. He also has a lot of assists. There is NOTHING to criticize here.
Not necessarily directing it towards Nik. He has a ton of assist but he definitely has more tunnel vision than Caris, which is why I’d prefer him to be the lead guard. When I say usage, I mean how much the ball is in their hands. Walton and Spike shouldn’t be close to Caris or Nik in usage which is what I fear.
If I’m not mistaken, usage measures who has the ball when the possession ends, not how much the ball is in a player’s hands (which I think would be too time consuming to measure). With that said, a couple games ago, Bielfeldt had the highest usage rate on the team.
To demonstrate just how misleading a metric like defensive efficiency rating can be this early in the season, Michigan is currently ranked #46 is defensive efficiency, while MSU is ranked #52. There is simply no possible scenario in which Michigan's defense is superior to MSU in any form or fashion, end of discussion. Those numbers are meaningless this early in the year to a large extent and we all know it.
Michigan is ranked 28th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Michigan State is ranked 11th.
To demonstrate just how misleading a metric like defensive efficiency rating can be this early in the season, Michigan is currently ranked #46 is defensive efficiency, while MSU is ranked #52. There is simply no possible scenario in which Michigan's defense is superior to MSU in any form or fashion, end of discussion. Those numbers are meaningless this early in the year to a large extent and we all know it.
Michigan is ranked 28th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Michigan State is ranked 11th.
I cited to plain old defensive efficiency (which UM is now #42 and MSU #49) as opposed to ADJUSTED defenseive efficiency rating. Not claiming this is a superior metric, just used it to demonstrate just how useless these rankings are this early in the season.
Not adjusting for strength of schedule is ludicrous at this point in the season. Straight efficiency should only be used in conference-only metrics when, for the most part, everybody plays everybody. The stat you referenced is useless because of the stat, not because of early season numbers.
Sure sample size is small, but that’s the sample we are all discussing anyway.
Agreed it is useless, but so is adjusted defensive efficiency rating for exact reason you stated in support of the same (SOS) - that being you can’t properly assess strength of schedule at this point based on the premise that you can’t really guage how good ANY team is this early in the process due to small sample size and the corresponding variation in each individual team’s opposition.
All of that to say, these rankings/metrics, are useless at this point, regardless of whether “adjusted” or not. Bottom line for me, we’re a poor defensive team regardless of what the numbers say.