On 2015 Recruiting, Our Style of Play, And The Need For Big Men

Michigan Basketball
121
Heard a comparison of Chatman to Kyle Anderson of UCLA and thought that was pretty interesting.

I also don’t know if I agree with Matt’s depiction of the role of our PG. As we can see with Walton and LeVert, someone who can not only penetrate BUT also make the correct read is essential. I’m not so sure Coleman can do that consistently.

Agree to a certain extent, but making correct decisions become easier when you have more options. It is hard for Walton to make the correct decision because he really only has 1 option (pass). He doesn’t have the ability to knock down an elbow/mid range jumper with consistency, so he is basically relegated to passing or driving all the way to the rack off a ball screen. If Walton was a legit threat to stick that elbow jumper (a la Trey), the roll man would be open much more than he currently is. With Coleman, if defenders don’t respect the shot, they will pay dearly for doing so.

Also, once we’re in the half court set, I’d venture to say that Nik is the primary initiator of the offense. From that standpoint, a PG brings the ball up the court, but once in a halfcourt set, the PG label is just symbolic.

122

You’re assuming that Coleman can get into the teeth of the defense which none of his reels really show him doing…

Nik is definitely a top the pecking order as far as initiating the offense but the numbers say Walton and LeVert are right there.

It can’t hurt to have your future PG to have that ability even if say Chatman or Levert end up with a higher usage rate.

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Totally agree that you would like your PG to have that ability, but I think Coleman/Davis could fill in and do a decent job if forced into the heat of battle.

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Thoughts on all this:

  1. I have a feeling Walton will progress far better than people think after this season, and I’m not sure he’s definitely around by 2016. But he should be here in 2015 for sure. That season, we’ll have him and a senior Spike as the PG backup - should be a real position of strength.

  2. I have a feeling Nik leaves after next year. So, for 2015-2016, I think we are looking at LeVert, Irvin and possibly Chatman at the wings. I have a feeling Chatman plays a lot of four next year (more than Irvin), and whether he moves to wing in 2015-2016 likely depends on whether Donnal or Wilson are ready to play the four by then.

  3. As far as PG/wing recruiting . . . First, in 2015, I’d take the first of Davis, Coleman, or Dozier to commit. All three seem like very similar players, with Davis and Dozier having more PG skills than Coleman. I’d certainly take Kennard if he wants to come, but it seems like we’re chasing UK in that one, which is almost never good. Sounds like we’ve really cooled on Bacon, so I’m guessing he’s out even if we don’t get Kennard. Also seems like that Williams kid from Texas would commit if we offer, but do we offer? At PG, do you take Brunson? I think you would have to feel really confident about getting either Thornton or Winston in 2015 to turn down Brunson, who may not be an elite athlete but seems like a very skilled player. It will also be interesting to see what 2016 guys have strong interest in us. Is Tyus Battle a possibility or pipe dream, for example? And what about Gordon? I’m already assuming Josh Jackson is headed to UK, but who knows. My guess is that if Brunson wants to come, we’ll take him, and then we’ll continue to recruit Thornton in 2016.

  4. As far as 2015 bigs . . . obviously, if we could get a guy like Zimmerman, Stone, or Thomas, you take him. Ellenson is probably more realistic. I don’t know about Boudreaux - I like his skill level, and he seems very tough, but if he continues to be an undersized 6-7, I don’t know if that helps us a lot. Right now, he seems similar to Max, who is probably never going to be a significant contributor. (You can never say “never,” but it seems unlikely). I assume we’ll continue to monitor him and will probably offer if we strike out on the more highly rated guys. I can’t recall if Seth Towns is a 2015 or 2016? In any event, he seems like someone we will recruit hard and have a solid shot at.

  5. If we could get one of Davis/Coleman/Dozier, Brunson, and Ellenson, I’d be pretty happy.

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Someone do a minute distribution of if 2015-16 if we take Brunson and one of Davis/Coleman/Dozier because I have yet to see someone do a convincing minutes breakdown. It just seems to make sense to make one of the combos the PG after Walton graduates and grab a true one in 2016. Also not sure we want to go from having 6’6’’ wings in Tim/Caris to 6’2’’ to 6’3’’ wings in Coleman/Davis.

Also do a minutes distribution of 2014-15. I think people are setting themselves up to be disappointed by Chatman freshman year.

126

So, from your latest mock draft post, I wasn’t so crazy for suggesting Mitch will still be a first round pick, and thus may likely leave after this year? :slight_smile:

Minutes for 2014-2015:

PG: Walton (25), Spike (10), Caris (5)

SG: Nik (30), Caris (10)

SF: Irvin (25), Caris (15)

PF: Chatman (25), Donnal (15)

C: Horford (30), Donnal (10)

That’s an 8 man rotation, usually about the size JB likes. I could see it possibly going to 9 if one of Wilson or Doyle are ready to break into the 4/5 rotation. I’d guess Max sees minutes at the five occasionally, but not enough to register in the project.

For 2015-2016 (assume a recruiting class of Brunson, one of Dozier/Coleman/Davis, Ellenson):

PG: Walton (25), Spike (10), Brunson (5)(almost suggests we don’t need Brunson)

SG: Caris (25), Dozier/Coleman/Davis (15)

SF: Irvin (30), Caris (5), Chatman (5)

PF: Chatman (25), Wilson (15)

C: Donnal (20), Doyle (10), Ellenson (10)

127

Explain to me why would Nik go from the hardest position to play (3) and Irvin would start there? Irvin is putting up a ORTG of 118 from the 4 spot right now. I think it’s moot because i see Nik leaving this year, anyways. He has nothing to gain by coming back and will never be a lottery pick.

Caris getting 5 minutes a game at PG sounds silly at this point. Might happen a handful of times in special situations.

Show me what freshman in the past few classes you think Chatman can be like that was highly productive, played defense and got 25 minutes a game?

Irvin, who is already a 118 ORTG player, is only getting 25 minutes a game next year?

You think Brunson is going to come here and sit when bluebloods are offering a starting spot? Why not get another wing instead of doing the Caris (5) Irvin (5) to make your minutes distribution work? It would also give us a seasoned wing to step in the next year because LeVert and Irvin would probably be pro after that season ended, if Levert doesn’t leave in 2014-15. Dozier/Coleman/Davis can take over for Walton until we bridge the gap with a true PG in 2016.

128

A few answers:

  1. Under JB, we have had several guys play big minutes as freshmen with strong productivity. Manny, Hardaway, Nik and Glenn would be four prime examples. Chatman is a four star kid, plenty talented, and seems to have the size and athleticism to play the four and play big minutes. If he doesn’t, so be it, but I think he’s headed that way. I think he’s a little taller and a little more athletic than Irvin, and thus that’s why he’ll play the four and Zak will play somewhere else. (JB has already talked about how we sacrifice rebounding with Zak playing the four this year off the bench).

  2. There’s a shot Nik leaves, certainly. However, this is a deep draft and he’s a projected second rounder right now. One more year at the college level, and I think he can work his way into the 17-25 range, instead of the 30-40 range that he’s probably in right now. This will matter as it will mean guaranteed money. And it’s just always better to be a first rounder, as the team picking you has more invested in your success.

  3. Irvin may indeed play 30 minutes next year, who knows. I have Caris getting 5 minutes at the point simply because I think he’ll be good enough to warrant 30 minutes a game, and we need to find those minutes somewhere. He’s more likely to take them from Spike than Irvin or Nik. Obviously if Nik leaves, Caris would probably start at the two and Irvin the three, and both will play big starters’ minutes.

  4. Another wing, instead of the minutes distribution for Irvin and Chatman (you mistakenly said LeVert) in 2015-2016? Sure, I agree. But both Irvin and Chatman are tall enough to play the three. Could any of Davis, Coleman or Dozier do it? Or Kennard (who we seem to trail for anyway)? If so, sure. But I don’t know if they can. I don’t know if you want a three man in the 6-2 to 6-4 range out there.

  5. I agree, Brunson may not want to sit for a year. On the other hand, if Walton is looking like an NBA player by then, our track record at the PG position will be pretty darn good. I can’t imagine Brunson sees himself as a one and done anyway, so the chance to start at PG on a really good team as a sophomore has to be somewhat enticing. That said, he won’t be happy if we recruit Thornton right behind him. But I also don’t think this staff will hold off on taking a kid because they have a shot at someone in the next class - too much uncertainty with recruiting to do that.

129

  1. Like I said before, Manny all the way until 2012 class was an issue of depth. We didn’t have better alternative. We have tons of options and experience ahead of Chatman. I also wouldn’t say any of those guys were “strongly productive” and outside of last year, they were usually asked to do TOO much. Once again, find me a four star talent that you think he could emulate freshman year? He will need a year of strength and conditioning before fully manning that position. JB has shown he is willing to give up defense and rebounding.

  2. Nik is a fringe first rounder whether he goes this year or next. This draft actually isn’t that different outside of a normal draft past the first 7 spots.

  1. Why wouldn’t Caris just get his 30-35 minutes a game at the 2 like he is right now? Oh because you think Irvin isn’t going to play at the 4…

  2. Exactly, which is why we need to take a wing instead of a Jalen Brunson and use Davis/Coleman/Dozier as a PG

  3. I don’t think Walton is a NBA player so I guess that is a fundamental difference in opinions. We had two pro PGs. Burke was special offensively and his ORTG/ AST%/PER all showed as much. Darius Morris was 6’4’’ and sported an ABSURD AST%. Meaning, I think Brunson would have to wait until his junior year to start as a PG at UofM. Just seems logical to develop our combo guard as the PG and bring a freshman in 2016 to understudy for a year.

130

We’ll see on Walton. I think he has the quickness to make the NBA, and I like the way he drives to the basket. He needs to work on his outside shot, but his form is good, so that’s doable.

131
Someone do a minute distribution of if 2015-16 if we take Brunson and one of Davis/Coleman/Dozier because I have yet to see someone do a convincing minutes breakdown. It just seems to make sense to make one of the combos the PG after Walton graduates and grab a true one in 2016. Also not sure we want to go from having 6'6'' wings in Tim/Caris to 6'2'' to 6'3'' wings in Coleman/Davis.

Also do a minutes distribution of 2014-15. I think people are setting themselves up to be disappointed by Chatman freshman year.

“Chatman is our stretch 4.” - guesatvo
“I think he’ll be a great stretch 4.” - guestavo
“GR3 and Chatman aren’t 4s either but in JB offense, they are.” - guesatvo
“Chatman is known for his rebounding, mid range shooting and post up play… yeah sounds like a perimeter oriented forward to me.” - guesatvo
“Chatman/McGary with Horford, Donnal, Doyle, Irvin and Wilson as options.” - guestavo
“I think Chatman is a stretch 4 his freshmen year…” - guestavo
“Chatman isn’t a bad stretch 4, as I think he plays that freshmen year…” - guestavo

Please try to stay consistent. It’s hard to discuss things with you if I’m not even sure what your stance is.

132
Explain to me why would Nik go from the hardest position to play (3) and Irvin would start there? Irvin is putting up a ORTG of 118 from the 4 spot right now. I think it's moot because i see Nik leaving this year, anyways. He has nothing to gain by coming back and will never be a lottery pick.

Caris getting 5 minutes a game at PG sounds silly at this point. Might happen a handful of times in special situations.

Show me what freshman in the past few classes you think Chatman can be like that was highly productive, played defense and got 25 minutes a game?

Irvin, who is already a 118 ORTG player, is only getting 25 minutes a game next year?

You think Brunson is going to come here and sit when bluebloods are offering a starting spot? Why not get another wing instead of doing the Caris (5) Irvin (5) to make your minutes distribution work? It would also give us a seasoned wing to step in the next year because LeVert and Irvin would probably be pro after that season ended, if Levert doesn’t leave in 2014-15. Dozier/Coleman/Davis can take over for Walton until we bridge the gap with a true PG in 2016.

Does the play have to have the same size feet and like Italian food, too? Kameron Chatman does not have to “emulate” any player in the past few years. Chatman just has to come in and play like Kameron Chatman, and many of us think that will be worthy of a starting position next year. You don’t have to agree, but that sure as heck doesn’t make us wrong.

But, since you love to bait people into arguments, I’ll humor you. Here are some freshman that Chatman has potential to produce like:
Aaron White - Iowa
Glenn Robison III - Michigan
T.J. Warren - N.C. State
TaShawn Thomas - Houston

I don’t know why you are under this assumption that true freshmen can’t come in and be difference makers right away. A year of strength/conditioning can do nothing but help Chatman, but that sure as heck doesn’t make the kid chopped liver his freshman year. He is an extraordinary talent with great length/athleticism. Beilein will utilize that.

133
Someone do a minute distribution of if 2015-16 if we take Brunson and one of Davis/Coleman/Dozier because I have yet to see someone do a convincing minutes breakdown. It just seems to make sense to make one of the combos the PG after Walton graduates and grab a true one in 2016. Also not sure we want to go from having 6'6'' wings in Tim/Caris to 6'2'' to 6'3'' wings in Coleman/Davis.

Also do a minutes distribution of 2014-15. I think people are setting themselves up to be disappointed by Chatman freshman year.

“Chatman is our stretch 4.” - guesatvo
“I think he’ll be a great stretch 4.” - guestavo
“GR3 and Chatman aren’t 4s either but in JB offense, they are.” - guesatvo
“Chatman is known for his rebounding, mid range shooting and post up play… yeah sounds like a perimeter oriented forward to me.” - guesatvo
“Chatman/McGary with Horford, Donnal, Doyle, Irvin and Wilson as options.” - guestavo
“I think Chatman is a stretch 4 his freshmen year…” - guestavo
“Chatman isn’t a bad stretch 4, as I think he plays that freshmen year…” - guestavo

Please try to stay consistent. It’s hard to discuss things with you if I’m not even sure what your stance is.

Really? He is a 2/3 who will play minutes at the 4 his freshman year. Not hard to understand. I don’t expect him to get top of the rotation minutes though he will be great for a freshman

How are any of the guys you listed similar to Chatman? The same Robinson that played with Burke? The other guys weren’t even on tournament teams…

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You asked for freshmen that came in, played Chatman’s position, played 25mpg, were productive, and played defensive. I listen several. Now their teams had to be good for them to count? Quit moving the goalposts.

There is no reason that Chatman can’t come in and play Aaron White-freshman level basketball and that would be an above average starter in the Big Ten.

135

It’s not good productivity if your team isn’t winning. Mike James put up 20 ppg on a Toronto Raptors team that didn’t win anything.

Aaron White played on a non-tournament team.

You want to see how freshman typically play?


You want to see why sophomores are always favored to start/ receive heavy minutes over freshman?

I have yet to hear a legit argument on why Chatman will start over LeVert, Irvin or Stauskas? Nik may go pro and this ends up a pointless argument but right now there isn’t anyway that he’ll come in and provide the sheer offense, versatility and defense to take away 3 future pro players. NONE.

136
It's not good productivity if your team isn't winning. Mike James put up 20 ppg on a Toronto Raptors team that didn't win anything.

Aaron White played on a non-tournament team.

You want to see how freshman typically play?

You want to see why sophomores are always favored to start/ receive heavy minutes over freshman?

I have yet to hear a legit argument on why Chatman will start over LeVert, Irvin or Stauskas? Nik may go pro and this ends up a pointless argument but right now there isn’t anyway that he’ll come in and provide the sheer offense, versatility and defense to take away 3 future pro players. NONE.

Sure you have, you just chose to write it off as being wrong. Many of us believe that Chatman is the best option at stretch 4 because, well, he is actually coming in as a SF/Stretch 4. Irvin came in as a SG/SF and is being forced to play the 4 out of necessity. When GRIII is gone, our best true stretch 4 will be Chatman.

You may think I’m wrong, and I might be, but it is most definitely legit reasoning.

137

Wilson is a stretch 4, doesn’t mean he would start over Irvin either. Caris, Irvin and Nik are all going to be 120-130 ORTG players with sub 90s DRTG next year. Chatman can’t equal that as a freshman on his best day. Go look at what the Wiggins, Parkers, etc are posting. JB is going to play his best players and not conform to strict positions. We are going to beat teams with our offense next year. Chatman is not a lock down defender. Chatman is not a better offensive player than the 3 guys I mentioned next year. CHATMAN IS NOT LEBRON JAMES.

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It's not good productivity if your team isn't winning. Mike James put up 20 ppg on a Toronto Raptors team that didn't win anything.

Aaron White played on a non-tournament team.

Honestly, this is getting old. Do you want to have real discussion, or not? You asked for some players who came in and performed well as freshman on both ends of the court white playing 25+mpg. I named some. Now they don’t count? Despite Iowa sucking, Aaron White played very good his freshman year. If you take Freshman Aaron White and put him on 2014/2015 Michigan, he gets 20+ minutes at the 4. Likewise, if Chatman can play at Aaron White freshman-level, he will get 20+ minutes at the 4.

139
Wilson is a stretch 4, doesn't mean he would start over Irvin either. Caris, Irvin and Nik are all going to be 120-130 ORTG players with sub 90s DRTG next year. Chatman can't equal that as a freshman on his best day. Go look at what the Wiggins, Parkers, etc are posting. JB is going to play his best players and not conform to strict positions. We are going to beat teams with our offense next year. Chatman is not a lock down defender. Chatman is not a better offensive player than the 3 guys I mentioned next year. CHATMAN IS NOT LEBRON JAMES.

In my opinion, Walton/Stauskas/Irvin/Chatman/McGary(Horford) > Walton/LeVert/Stauskas/Irvin/McGary(Horford). You don’t have to agree, but that doesn’t make my opinion wrong. There are a handful of others on this board that agree.

Chatman doesn’t have to be LeBron, he has to be a better option at the 4 than Irvin, and I think he is.

140

Nik 66 TS% 20 AST% 135 ORTG 101 DRTG 1.7 STL% .4 BLK% 23 USG% 6 TRB%

Caris 56 TS% 16 AST% 114 ORTG 98 DRTG 2 STL% 1.3 BLK% 20 USG% 7 TRB%

Zak 58 TS% 8 AST% 119 ORTG 102 DRTG 1.2 STL% 1 BLK% 22 USG% 7 TRB% ( in limited minutes so it’s a bit inflated)

  • keep in mind that Caris and Zak are 19 and the biggest leap statistically/productivity is from 19 to 20

Nik is too elite of an facilitator and offensive shooter/scorer to sit. Will be our primary offensive option.

Caris is too well rounded. A solid scorer, passer, defender, help side defender and rebounder. Next year he will be our BEST defender as far as man defenses and disrupting/ causing turnovers, great passer and leading rebounder from the wing.

Zak is going to be ELITE offensively and a great rebounder. His defense is below average this year but will probably be average next year at the 4 spot. Chatman isn’t going to come in and post elite defensive numbers so there isn’t much of an advantage and he isn’t going to match the offensive shooting/scoring that Irvin gives. Maybe he gets more rebounds and assist but Irvin doesn’t lack there so it isn’t enough to supplant him.

Now all of this is my opinion but I just don’t see a freshman coming in and adding enough utility to displace any of these guys out of a lineup. Look at this link and find the guys that post a combination of offense and defense along with facilitating and all the other small things in SIGNIFICANT minutes on a tournament team with about 20 % USG… It’s hard, even the elite one and dones aren’t doing that.

Now if Nik goes pro then obviously Chatman will start.