Mo’s treading Nik Stauskas territory now. He’s gonna have to do something soon or he could easily be back in Germany before Franz first contract is over
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Thompson gets regular minutes.
They did it before in Milwaukee.
Is he even a lock to be in the NBA next year?
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Why has he not been good? It seems like he contributes when he plays. His numbers don’t seem to scream marginal NBA player though I’m just looking at surface stats.
Can’t play the slightest bit of defense. Also hasn’t even been a good enough shooter to stretch the defense
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Curiously, his defensive rating in some of the advanced plus-minus stats are fairly good (EPM, LEBRON)
As a Celtics fan, I think Moe could be a great change of pace 5 off the bench for the Time Lord. Especially if he can find a reliable 3-point shot. This year we’re barely a playoff team, but I can see Moe getting under the skin of some 76ers to endear him to the shamrock faithful.
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That’s the biggest reason I wanted him as a Bull. We haven’t had a good pest on the Bulls since Andres Nocioni unless I’m forgetting someone
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As some extra time has passed, there are more updates!
Ignas Brazdeikis is now a 76er. Unless Philly develops a totally different appraisal than the Knicks brass, this likely doesn’t change much for him in the near-term. The 76ers are a vast superior team to the Knicks, and with a forward rotation of Tobias Harris, Danny Green, and Mike Scott (ignoring the fact that Ben Simmons’ titular classification as a “guard” means they play a ton of 3 guard lineups too), there isn’t much opportunity here this year. Expect to see him remain in the G League bubble.
Jordan Poole has…I don’t even know what to say. This came out of nowhere. Since his return from G League play (where he was good, but he was good there last year too), Poole pushed his PT from 20 garbage time minutes to 38 minutes in competitive games, while starting. He’s scoring 20 ppg, dropping 3 assists, shooting 50% from the floor, 40% from 3, and 93% from the line (and taken 12 FT’s in his last two games!). Obviously, 50/40/90 is not something we will expect him to keep up, as he’s probably (!) not an All-NBA player. But…this is really really good offensive play. Some observers I listen to, such as Nate Duncan, have also noted his increasing confidence throwing “creative” passes, and project some growth for him there. From a guy who started last year as the absolute worst rotation player in the NBA…this is something. The Warriors are 3-6 since he claimed this role, but it’s hard to say Jordan is the problem here, obviously.
The Wizards had opted to put Mo Wagner back on the shelf after some early returns in the “Mo as starter” lineups, in favor of Alex Len, and really hadn’t played him before yesterdays trade to the Celtics. The Wizards hadn’t picked up his option, and Scottie Brooks hadn’t seen fit to play him, so its safe to say his time there had run it’s course. The Boston situation is a bit of a question mark. On one hand, they didn’t really affirmatively try to acquire him, he was a mechanism by which they could duck the luxury tax for a mediocre team (what they are right now) after acquiring Evan Fournier with Jayson Tatum’s extension due to kick in next year - this way, they push the repeater tax back 1 year. That said, he is there, and he is a center…can they use him? Well, they did deal Daniel Theis in trade that brought him in, which leaves Tristan Thompson (currently out in the health and safety protocols) and Robert Williams…who is a massive question mark. He’ll probably get some opportunity as long as Thompson is out, but when he returns…who knows. I saw someone note that Mo was entering “Nik Stauskas territory”, which unfortunately strikes me as accurate.
DJ Wilson is a Rocket! What this means is that he gets to play, as there is hardly a more pathetic team out there. So far it’s…fine? He’s hit 3/8 threes as a Rocket, and he had an 8 rebound game the other day. There really isn’t such a thing as “meaningful minutes” on this team, but DJ is a guy that, personally, I felt has really never gotten much of an opportunity. He’ll have one the rest of the year, and his status as an NBA player is likely hinging on his ability to show something.
Caris Levert is BACK! Somewhat hilariously, his splits as a Pacer are nearly identical to his product as a Net this year - 16 ppg,3.5 boards, identical true shooting on 1/2 a shot fewer per game…his assist rate has dropped from 34% to 18%, but that’s mostly a function of being the 2nd guy with the ball in his hands as a starter, than the ring-leader of the bench mob. Caris’ NBA shooting has never been that consistent, and while he has repeatedly shown flashes (frequently interrupted by catastrophic health news) the net product isn’t very efficient…that is true thus far in Indy as well. That said, he is a guy with a broad skill set who can do a little bit of lots of things…a good guy for a decent team to have as a second guard. The Pacers clearly viewed his contract as a value, and the ability to retain him for 2 years on top of the commitment to Oladipo was important. Barring more bad news, he has a comfortable role. His last game was a beauty - 28/6/4 on 19 shots. Hopefully he builds on it.
Glenn Robinson III remains unemployed.
Trey Burke, as noted last time, has had his role whittled down to 8/9 minutes per game in Dallas. He shot over 50% (clearly, with that minutes allocation, the attempts aren’t huge) since we last updated. This seems to be what he’ll be doing. At least he’s in the league!
Tim Hardaway Jr. has mostly alternated efficient 20+ point nights with rocky 8-12 point nights for a month. The aggregate - nearly 16 ppg on 45%/40% shooting is almost dead on to his season average, its just coming in peaks and valleys. As I’ve said repeatedly - his role here is pretty secure, and the Mavericks have been very successful after early problems with injures and the COVID bug. I was never a big fan of Tim in his time here - I found him frustrating, and a bit of a gunner. That said, I think it’s worth noting how dramatically he’s improved in his NBA career - he spend most of his career struggling to scrape 40% from the field and 35% from 3 as a shooter - especially a miserable high-volume/low-efficiency partial season as a Knick prior to his arrival in Dallas. Since the start of last year, he went from a solidly below average shooter to a solidly above average one, while drastically increasing his three point rate. Part of this is the distinction between incompetent coaching (both Knicks stints) and competent (Budenholzer in Atlanta, Carlisle in Dallas). But he’s grown his main skill tremendously as a pro. He’s pushing Duncan Robinson territory in overall efficency (58.7% TS to Duncan’s 60%), and doing it on a higher volume.
After much speculation,Duncan Robinson was not traded, as Kyle Lowry stayed put. March was probably Duncan’s worst month since his emergence last season, but he still canned 37% of his threes. He’s far off from last year’s break out, but still productive. The big question here is that the Heat got a TON of guy at the deadline - Oladipo, Trevor Ariza as a forward. They now, at the 2/3 have some grouping of Dragic, Herro, Nunn, Robinson, Oladipo, and Ariza. That’s a lot! I think it would be reasonable to conclude Duncan has a PT decline coming.
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Great update as always! Very curious to see what happens with Duncan. Being a 37% shooter is still very good…but given his other limitations it feels like he needs to be higher to fight for minutes in a now crowded rotation. With this offseason being his chance at a solid payday, I wonder what happens if he doesn’t play much down the stretch.
I would like to see him get paid…but I also worry that he needs to be on a well coached team that knows how to use him and there are only so many of those.
What do think his outlook is?
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I think there are a few things:
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His performance last year was historic in the literal sense - he was on pace to have the third most threes in a season ever. I think there is some regression inevitable from that.
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He’s not surprising anyone this year. Teams will scheme against him now, and I think that the fact that Heat have been SO impacted by injury and illness that there haven’t always been guys WORTH scheming against other than him. Dragic and Butler really are the straws that stir the drink and they’ve missed 18 and 15 games of 45 respectively.
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Obviously guys who shoot 37% on 8.5 attempts and 3 attempts are different, and he’s the former.
I think he’s going to play less, at least early - they’re going to get a look at Oladipo and see if they want him long term, that will be the biggest challenge to Duncan’s time.
If Oladipo looks like he did in in Houston and Indy this year and last…Duncan will start.
Regardless, he’ll sign at the very least a $30-$40 million contract. I think the $20m/annual stuff is a pipe dream.
His true shooting is still over 60%, he’s a very efficient shooter even now.
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Good summary. I have always been perplexed by Oladipo as a player. I like him, but he’s never seemed to be a star to me and seems like a guy who has maximized all of his skill thru tenacious effort but the ceiling just isn’t that high. I like him as the third guy on a good team, not as the primary.
I mean that one year he was a legitimate all-NBA player. Then he destroyed his knee and it’s been bad since. I think he was a plus athlete - he was a top tier defensive guard and was good enough off the dribble that he got space to shoot (always been his weakness). Now very little of that is true.
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If you’ve seen Miami play and Duncan’s box score minutes (he’s averaging roughly the same minutes as Jimmy Butler), you’ll realize that they’ve kind of built their offense around him in a sense. I don’t think his minutes get hurt much by these movies.
I think that’s true - but Oladipo is going to play, Herro is going to play, and they need at least 1 of Butler or Dragic on the floor (in the playoffs probably both).
I think it’s entirely possible if not likely Duncan is back to 32 mins in the playoffs - Id be surprised if he’s there the next few weeks.
I mean there is no way he dips below 20 (Nunn won’t play, I think they give Ariza a look).
If he dips that low in the playoffs it’s because Oladipo demands PT, and if that happens they’re probably a finals contender again.
Well, maybe you know–he’s been injured for several years, to the extent that the amazing D he played his first couple of years in the league has been impacted. Read in a Miami paper that the Heat are banking on the idea that with their excellent medical and rehab team they can get him back into great health, whereupon he would look like a steal. Apparently, he is strongly invested, loving Miami and wanting to live there, etc.
He’s going to get P-A-I-D this offseason. If Davis Bertans can get 5 years for 80 mil, Duncan can get just as much if not more than Bertans. 100 million is in sight for Duncan.
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Mo made his first shot as a Celtic tonight and it was a three. Hard to say, but he looks good in green.
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Postgame Mo
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