Caris LeVert Draft Stock

This discussion was created from comments split from: 2016 Wing Recruiting (Langford, Brown, Battle, etc.).

As an FYI…Caris’ stock is seemingly slipping by the week. He was once a 15-25 guy, at this point he’s a 20-30 guy, and I think he will steadily decline to the point where coming back might be a realistic scenario.

http://www.nbadraft.net/2015mock_draft

He’s down to 22 from 18 at DX. That’s a four spot drop in the last two weeks.

21 at NBADraft.net, not sure where he was before?

He’s also down to 32 on Chad Ford’s top 100.
http://t.co/rC5BzWVmZA

Have to think as more players declare and work out for teams, the first round projections will get more crowded.

The timing is interesting, Beilein has talked about wanting to get a draft grade back ASAP while LeVert has mentioned wanting to wait until the deadline (late April). I’m not sure how exactly the committee grades work when you aren’t sure who is actually entering the draft. Obviously it’s more just about what people think of your game, than specifics of the #s.

Bottom line is this, an individual season that didn’t live up to expectation in conjunction with an injury has caused Caris to slip into the danger zone. He would be well served to return in my opinion, just don’t think he is 1st rd material to be honest.

Bottom line is this, an individual season that didn't live up to expectation in conjunction with an injury has caused Caris to slip into the danger zone. He would be well served to return in my opinion, just don't think he is 1st rd material to be honest.

Do you think he’ll ever be first round material after this year?

Personally, I don’t see him succeeding in the NBA and I think if he comes back his stock will drop even more. Reason being, next year I don’t think he’ll be the center of the offense like he was for this year. That’s not me saying he won’t be our best player. What I’m saying is, assuming MAAR, Dawkins Irvin and Walton are all better, we won’t rely as much on Levert.

For Levert to shine, he needs to pound the rock looking for his shot. For Michigan’s offense to be efficient, this can’t happen.

Still a toss up IMO. He certainly hasn’t done anything to deserve a drop while NOT playing. While others inevitably rise due to exposure, I consistently maintain this is a very weak draft for guards, and I would be VERY reluctant to put either Booker or Blackmon above him. Just as many “holes” and variables in their games as Caris. It’s all about his health IMO, the next injury could be career ending.

Bottom line is this, an individual season that didn't live up to expectation in conjunction with an injury has caused Caris to slip into the danger zone. He would be well served to return in my opinion, just don't think he is 1st rd material to be honest.

Do you think he’ll ever be first round material after this year?

Personally, I don’t see him succeeding in the NBA and I think if he comes back his stock will drop even more. Reason being, next year I don’t think he’ll be the center of the offense like he was for this year. That’s not me saying he won’t be our best player. What I’m saying is, assuming MAAR, Dawkins Irvin and Walton are all better, we won’t rely as much on Levert.

For Levert to shine, he needs to pound the rock looking for his shot. For Michigan’s offense to be efficient, this can’t happen.

He looked pretty fantastic as Nik Stauskas’s left-hand man as a sophomore. He looked pretty bad this year without much help.

I think there’s a balance between the two where Caris is a 25% usage guy, but has other threats around him and that could be a benefit for everyone.

Still a toss up IMO. He certainly hasn't done anything to deserve a drop while NOT playing. While others inevitably rise due to exposure, I consistently maintain this is a very weak draft for guards, and I would be VERY reluctant to put either Booker or Blackmon above him. Just as many "holes" and variables in their games as Caris. It's all about his health IMO, the next injury could be career ending.

RJ Hunter, Justin Anderson, Tyus Jones, Devin Booker and Kris Dunn are some of the names that seem to be located around him. All guys with varying strengths and weaknesses, but I do think Caris really struggled this year.

Bottom line is this, an individual season that didn't live up to expectation in conjunction with an injury has caused Caris to slip into the danger zone. He would be well served to return in my opinion, just don't think he is 1st rd material to be honest.

Do you think he’ll ever be first round material after this year?

Personally, I don’t see him succeeding in the NBA and I think if he comes back his stock will drop even more. Reason being, next year I don’t think he’ll be the center of the offense like he was for this year. That’s not me saying he won’t be our best player. What I’m saying is, assuming MAAR, Dawkins Irvin and Walton are all better, we won’t rely as much on Levert.

For Levert to shine, he needs to pound the rock looking for his shot. For Michigan’s offense to be efficient, this can’t happen.

Disagree, for Levert to improve he has to display the ability to shoot off the bounce and defend at a higher level on the perimeter

Still a toss up IMO. He certainly hasn't done anything to deserve a drop while NOT playing. While others inevitably rise due to exposure, I consistently maintain this is a very weak draft for guards, and I would be VERY reluctant to put either Booker or Blackmon above him. Just as many "holes" and variables in their games as Caris. It's all about his health IMO, the next injury could be career ending.

RJ Hunter, Justin Anderson, Tyus Jones, Devin Booker and Kris Dunn are some of the names that seem to be located around him. All guys with varying strengths and weaknesses, but I do think Caris really struggled this year.

Absolutely NONE of those prospects moves my compass one bit. If a GM wants any of those as his 1st round pick over a “healthy” Caris, his name must be Dumars?

@MattD: Shooting off the bounce is where he really struggled this year. He just couldn’t hit those shots and kept on trying. He’s never going to be strong enough to be a great finisher at the rim, so that shot is just so important to him (as we wrote all summer).

Caris is an interesting place because if he can get a guaranteed mid to late 1st rd grade(does that really even exist), you can’t fault him for leaving.

But, if he returns, his usage should be reduced and I’d expect him to become a more efficient player which will help him immensely. The big concern though is the foot…is this something that is chronic…will they need to monitor his minutes, will he be able to play on it with 100% confidence, etc.

I’d like to think that Caris could return, have a injury-free, productive year(stats and W/L’s) and solidify himself as a 1st rd pick. But there are so many variables, its just hard to know what will happen.

Still a toss up IMO. He certainly hasn't done anything to deserve a drop while NOT playing. While others inevitably rise due to exposure, I consistently maintain this is a very weak draft for guards, and I would be VERY reluctant to put either Booker or Blackmon above him. Just as many "holes" and variables in their games as Caris. It's all about his health IMO, the next injury could be career ending.

I would put Blackmon ahead of Caris every day, all day. Caris does one thing well, catch and shoot…but Blackmon does it better. Blackmon is a better athlete and I actually think he’s a better finisher. I look at Blackmon and see a more athletic, better creating version of Gary Neal.

I would put Blackmon ahead of Caris every day, all day. Caris does one thing well, catch and shoot........but Blackmon does it better. Blackmon is a better athlete and I actually think he's a better finisher. I look at Blackmon and see a more athletic, better creating version of Gary Neal.

I go back and forth with Blackmon. He shot the same percentage as Caris this year from three and Caris was better last year. Caris is also longer and a far better passer.

Thought Blackmon’s effort/intensity was hit or miss at times for IU this season. Is he projected as a first round pick? I haven’t noticed him on DX’s mocks at all.

Caris is an interesting place because if he can get a guaranteed mid to late 1st rd grade(does that really even exist), you can't fault him for leaving.

But, if he returns, his usage should be reduced and I’d expect him to become a more efficient player which will help him immensely. The big concern though is the foot…is this something that is chronic…will they need to monitor his minutes, will he be able to play on it with 100% confidence, etc.

I’d like to think that Caris could return, have a injury-free, productive year(stats and W/L’s) and solidify himself as a 1st rd pick. But there are so many variables, its just hard to know what will happen.

Yep. This pretty much hits the nail on the head. There are so many moving factors to his decision. Either way, by the time next season starts he’ll probably have spent over half the last year rehabbing and completely off his foot.

Still a toss up IMO. He certainly hasn't done anything to deserve a drop while NOT playing. While others inevitably rise due to exposure, I consistently maintain this is a very weak draft for guards, and I would be VERY reluctant to put either Booker or Blackmon above him. Just as many "holes" and variables in their games as Caris. It's all about his health IMO, the next injury could be career ending.

I would put Blackmon ahead of Caris every day, all day. Caris does one thing well, catch and shoot…but Blackmon does it better. Blackmon is a better athlete and I actually think he’s a better finisher. I look at Blackmon and see a more athletic, better creating version of Gary Neal.

Not me, way to small. Gonna be a difficult time finishing in the Association, and his catch and shoot opportunities are not going to come as frequently as they did at IU. A “healthy” Caris is an intriguing piece of an NBA roster going forward. His continued growth is still developing.

Blackmon’s size is going to be a challenge for him, but that doesn’t mean he can’t overcome it.

Bottom line is this, an individual season that didn't live up to expectation in conjunction with an injury has caused Caris to slip into the danger zone. He would be well served to return in my opinion, just don't think he is 1st rd material to be honest.

Do you think he’ll ever be first round material after this year?

Personally, I don’t see him succeeding in the NBA and I think if he comes back his stock will drop even more. Reason being, next year I don’t think he’ll be the center of the offense like he was for this year. That’s not me saying he won’t be our best player. What I’m saying is, assuming MAAR, Dawkins Irvin and Walton are all better, we won’t rely as much on Levert.

For Levert to shine, he needs to pound the rock looking for his shot. For Michigan’s offense to be efficient, this can’t happen.

He looked pretty fantastic as Nik Stauskas’s left-hand man as a sophomore. He looked pretty bad this year without much help.

I think there’s a balance between the two where Caris is a 25% usage guy, but has other threats around him and that could be a benefit for everyone.

That’s just it, Caris is at his best as a “left-hand” man. Would he accept that role after giving up a potential first round selection? It’s uncharted waters for him.

If he comes back, I would like to revisit this discussion in December.

@mpbear14 OP said ‘he needs to pound the rock looking for his shot’ to shine. I don’t think that’s necessarily true.