A loss to MSU tomorrow night would be crushing, but I agree. Even a win tomorrow and I think we are right back on the good side of the bubble. Gonna be a lot of flipping back and forth though I think
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Yeah definitely agree, put up or shut up game tomorrow. Even if they lose, thereās still theoretically enough time to make a last effort run, but I couldnāt see that happening at all.
Itād be real nice if they can get to 8, or at least 7 wins, going into the Purdue game. Those Northwestern and Nebraska game arenāt going to be bubble games anymore, which should help big time.
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Im not saying we make the tourney, and who would after Saturday, but three things we know about tomorrow:
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MSU isnāt that amazing
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We seem to always have a snap back game when we shoot ourselves in the foot a few times or the guys feel embarrassed about how poorly they played (as frustrating as this is)
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Its at Crisler which probably meant a lot more a few years go, but still is better than a neutral ct
Win tomorrow, win one of Purd/Wisc at home, and go 3-2 on the road where 3 are games we probably should win (complete mental letdowns not withstanding)ā¦ 9-9 with conf tourney to come and a weak bubble.
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Have to win at least one of the next two to stay in the discussion, but not too bad a day for rooting against the bubble.
Very bubbly teams in Wake Forest, Clemson, Arkansas, Georgetown and Georgia lost.
Marquette losing is a wash. Iowa St also lost at Texas, but they would have to free fall after the KU win in Allen.
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I know we just eked out the Texas win, but I wish we wouldāve gotten a chance against a tournament-bound Big 12 team. Their collective NCAA tournament performance suggests theyāre perpetually overrated (save Kansas), but that could be used to our advantage when it comes to selection committee counting statistics.
Semi-same note, but I donāt get those who have Wichita St or Illinois St in their projected at large field. Iāll add theyāre both also overrated like the Big 12 (or at least on paper).
Yeah, at-large bids from teams who only play 3-4 games vs top 50 teams seems counter-intuitive, but I guess itās just so much more fun when a mid-major team pulls off the upset, instead of the 7th best team from a P5 conference.
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Another win for Furmanā¦ On the verge of the RPI Top 100
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Amazingly could be a key decider to making the tournament. What a gift.
That was maybe their toughest game left tonight too.
Palm has us at a 10 seed- side note MSU/OSU ālast teams inā
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Palm is quite the outlier, at least with respect to the B1G.
Ohio State made 1 of the last 99(!) brackets on Bracket Matrix. MSU has us beat in RPI, SOS, away wins and top-50 wins. Bracket Matrix has MSU 15 spots ahead of us.
Palm isnāt as high on MSU because of the number of losses. I think the big takeaway with his brackets is he likes to compare bubble resumes with historical at-large bubble teams. Thatās why heās also down on Wichita St and Illinois St as compared to others.
As an example, hereās what he says about MSU:
"Only seven teams in the 24 seasons that I have been tracking tournament selections have received at-large bids with 14 losses. MSU will need to finish well to avoid that number. "
One other thing to keep in mind about our resume, is RIGHT NOW we donāt have a bad loss. With Iowa in the top 100 our resume looks worthwhile.
I agree with Palm that with 14 losses no way MSU makes it. @Purdue, @Maryland, vs Wisconsin, 1 Big ten tournament loss and theyāre there. And thatās if they happen to not stumble elsewhere tooā¦I just donāt see it happening
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Wow, a Syracuse vs. Michigan State play in game, like Palm has projected, would be something. Nobody would want the winner of that!
Since thereās some talk on how heavily RPI should be weighted. Also, some disbelief, including myself, at how some bracket experts see Michiganās resume, thought itād be fun to do a blind resume test against similar bubble teams. Itās still early to do but not THAT early anymore.
Keep in mind, this is strictly a basic tourney resume and doesnāt include Kenpom and advanced metrics, which should help us.
More importantly, this doesnāt include where those wins were, home/road/neutral.
Michiganās Resume as of 2/10:
Overall Record: 15-9 (5-6)
RPI: 74
SOS: 47
Record Vs. 1-25: 1-4
Record Vs. 26-50: 1-2
Record Vs. 51-100: 5-3
Record Vs. 101-200: 3-0
Record Vs. 200+: 5-0
Team A:
Overall Record: 16-9 (8-4)
RPI: 62
SOS: 46
Record Vs. 1-25: 2-3
Record Vs. 26-50: 2-2
Record Vs. 51-100: 4-1
Record Vs. 101-200: 4-3
Record Vs. 200+: 4-0
Team B:
Overall Record: 22-4 (12-1)
RPI: 52
SOS: 177
Record Vs. 1-25: 0-1
Record Vs. 26-50: 1-3
Record Vs. 51-100: 0-0
Record Vs. 101-200: 12-0
Record Vs. 200+: 8-0
Team C:
Overall Record: 15-8 (5-6)
RPI: 37
SOS: 39
Record Vs. 1-25: 1-5
Record Vs. 26-50: 1-0
Record Vs. 51-100: 4-3
Record Vs. 101-200: 2-0
Record Vs. 200+: 7-0
Team D:
Overall Record: 14-10 (6-5)
RPI: 50
SOS: 19
Record Vs. 1-25: 2-5
Record Vs. 26-50: 1-0
Record Vs. 51-100: 4-4
Record Vs. 101-200: 3-1
Record Vs. 200+: 4-0
Either sweep the home games and win @Rutgers, or spli the home games, split @Northwestern/Nebraska, and win @Rutgers.
Huge win today for their psyche and tournament hopes!
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Or we can just keep playing hard and win every road game since none of them imo are better than us. If they keep playing hard I donāt see why we should lose to nw, Nebraska, Or Rutgers.
That SMU win is gonna look real nice
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Michigan needed these last two, but the next two are juicy RPI opportunities. Top-25 team at home and top-25 team on the road.
Big opportunity and a split would be solid, but two in a row would have Michigan in a great spot.
If Michigan some how beats Purdue and Wisconsin theyād need a pretty big meltdown to miss imo. Weād have a real nice resume of wins at that point. Particularly if the Hoosiers find a way to get hot and push back towards the bubble.