Gotta say that “Malik Hall’s minutes” was one of the most confounding story lines of the 2021-2022 season for me.
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I genuinely can’t recall what AJ Hoggard looks like and how he plays but I can confidently say LOLOLOLOLOL if he’s considered a top 15 player in the Big10
7 and 5 on 44/22/63 splits last year. And I honestly think I like Hoggard more than most but if he’s supposed to be one of the best in the league, or he’s 10 spots higher than Jaelin Llewellyn, then everything is bad! Very very bad!
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I would say 6 through 25 is basically a toss-up. There’s not a ton separating guys in that tier. I don’t think that someone being a couple of spots higher than someone else really means much and I’m not sure what “everything is bad” from that statement means.
If you told me Donta Scott will have a better season than Matthew Mayer, I would absolutely believe you.
If you told me that two Minnesota guys in the top 15 was insane, well I’d believe you again.
The separation between players is just so thin, I definitely think we gave at least some advantage to guys who have some pedigree – especially if it’s in the league.
Sometimes we do this and it feels like the “next 10” have a great chance at All-Big Ten but I think there’s a pretty wide gap on paper right now between the top five.
“Everything is bad” just means I just think the caliber of talent in the conference is incredibly down compared to any year in recent memory. I agree with you on not much separation between 6-25, pending seeing the next ten on your list. I think that’s indicative of the poor quality of play we’re going to endure as Big Ten fans as a whole this year though.
But also for the sake of discussion, what’s more likely for next year:
Hoggard becomes a 10 and 7 guy who limits TOs and ups his %s?
or Llewellyn is a 12 and 5 guy on good %s?
I would lean Llewellyn, especially if how many wins the teams could have is part of the exercise. But I assume Hoggard is ahead because of a belief that he has a higher ceiling, or maybe that JL has a lower floor?
Maybe from a list like this, but how many teams would you say have a chance to make the NCAA Tournament this year? I think it is somewhat realistic for what 9 or 10 teams to go into the year thinking they have a chance?
I guess 9-10 but I think it could just as easily be 5. Idk, someone has to win every game so that’s gonna help the middle of the conference tally enough to make it.
Locks:
Indiana
Illinois
Michigan
Should be in:
Rutgers
Iowa
Should be in but their rosters are way worse than normal:
Purdue
Ohio State
Bubble but will make it because of dark magic voodoo:
Michigan State
:
Wisconsin
Maryland
Out:
Northwestern
Nebraska
Minnesota
Penn State
I think the problem isn’t the depth of the league, but the sheer lack of high quality teams. Two years ago the league had 5 teams that were seeded 4 or better in the tournament (including two 1 seeds and two 2 seeds). I’d be surprised if it was more than 1 or 2 this year.
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Yeah, I think that’s fair. It’s definitely a bunch in the middle, but that’s kind of how it was last year too. I just don’t really know what a “lack of talent” means for quality of the league.
Like if Ohio State, Maryland, Michigan State and Wisconsin are supposed to be the teams that fall off, I just don’t know if I buy that completely.
Maryland is loaded with seniors and will have some sort of a new coach bounce. Wisconsin is always decent. Ohio State is loaded with seniors and a good freshman class and Holtmann has a pretty high floor. Say what you want about MSU’s depth but AJ/Tyson/Akins/Hall/Hauser is still a decent starting point. Zach Edey should be a monster so I don’t really see Purdue falling far.
I don’t think it’s impossible that some of these teams do pretty well for themselves in the non-conference despite not having preseason top 5 type rosters.
I just don’t see a 1-1 correlation between this list and how good the league will be. I think Minnesota is probably the best example of that.
I think a lot of people are sleeping on Purdue. Edey is the standout for them, and the guys around him don’t jump off the page with great talent. It will be a team effort for the Boilers but guys such as Newman, Furst, Kaufman-Renn, Gillis, and Morton have the ability to plug in where needed. And freshman Smith and Loyer will add energy to the backcourt.
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Feels a bit like MSU with an actual centerpiece but minus any real PGs
Feels more like the exact opposite of MSU to me. MSU has multiple PGs and no big man. Purdue has an elite big man and no PG.
Purdue also has an obvious AB10 First team candidate/favorite and I would say MSU doesn’t.
I don’t want to be this person, but Wisconsin is going to be top 5/6 in the conference again. It’s basically a rule of the B1G at this point.
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I’m thinking maybe Caleb McConnell is not on the list? His offensive rating the past two seasons in Big Ten play has been 85 and while he’s had his moments especially in the NCAAT and is a great, versatile defender, he’s not an insane defensive force like say a Kofi Cockburn was where teams have to completely change what they do. Comparing him to the 16-25 guys I don’t think he should be higher than most of them. I was surprised he didn’t register as an HM but I’d be even more surprised if he was ranked in the top 15.
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Also, by the end of November Michigan State will have either earned or cost the Big Ten at least one tournament bid. Villanova, Kentucky, Gonzaga, Notre Dame, and PK85 (Alabama and then UConn/Oregon). I see them going 1-5 in those games a lot more easily than I see 5-1.
Definitely a tough schedule and easy to see a lot of losses but I’m not sure the losses would cost the Big Ten a bid. Things like losing buy games and losing to mediocre HMs is what hurts the league as far as tourney standing.
Seems like Caleb can be a really effective player but I will never forget his complete self-destruction against us that led to Rutgers blowing the game. Dude was having the most egregious mental breakdown lol.
Turnover, errant pass, dumb foul, out of bounds play, chucking with 30 on the shot clock. he was trying to cram all of that into 5 minutes plays He simply could not stop imploding and he looked like he was about to cry.