O/U 0.5 on Rutgers, Wisconsin, and Maryland making the Sweet 16?
Very curious to see how these 3 do.
under. bad matchups all against top-2 seeds
Under none of them make sweet 16.
Over. At least one of them will surprise.
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Surprised people are taking the under. Bart Torvik has the percentage for at least one of them winning at 66%.
Smart bet would be one. But I don’t like Wisconsin or Rutgers chances. I’d put it at 50/50
I’d say under. I have no faith in Rutgers, and Wisconsin might have an outside chance if they play like they did yesterday/how the ended last season. But Maryland has the best chance by far IMO. I’ve been low on Bama all year, and they almost lost to Iona today. Maryland has a really good defense and the fact that they play a lineup of entirely switchable 6’5-6’8 guys matches up perfectly against Bama’s perimeter based, smaller offense. I think Maryland can hold Bama in check on offense and the perimeter and keep it close, but I don’t think they can score enough to pull it out.
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Yeah your last point is key IMO. I don’t like Maryland’s offense against Bama.
Despite their personnel Maryland gives up a lot of threes. Their ability to hold Bama in check will depend a lot on 3 point luck.
Yeah I was going to say that they gave up a lot of open threes against us. Seems like a bad recipe against Bama.
That’s fair, but despite their volume Bama isn’t a great 3 point shooting team. They’re outside of the top 100 nationally, and that’s propped up by their 10 game winning streak in January when they shot 44%. They’re 35% on the season so outside of those 10 games they’re probably under 33%, and they’ve only cracked 33% twice in the past 9 games.
Some of this is probably extrapolation on my end, but I feel like Maryland knows Bama wants to shoot the 3 and will make an effort to shut that down, hence the personnel matching up well. Also Maryland has a terrible defensive 3 point rate, but look at the last two games they played against Michigan where we shot 10-22 and 12-24 from 3. Most of those looks came from Maryland having to double the post and then us getting open 3’s on the kickouts. Bama doesn’t have anyone of that gravity on the interior to collapse the defense, so as long as guys like Morsell, Ayala and Wiggins can stay in front of the Bama perimeter players one on one I like that matchup.
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Maryland is 305th in the country at preventing 3 pointers. It’s not just against Michigan, it’s against everyone.
Bama will probably get like 45% of their shots up from 3.
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I agree, but getting up a lot of 3’s /= making a lot of 3’s. My point was the team that a lot of teams have put up 3’s against Maryland, but Michigan is one of the only teams who has made them at a high clip.
For reference, since January 10th, teams are shooting 32% from 3 against Maryland, with the only 3 teams having good performances (ie > 40%) being Michigan twice and Nebraska. There’s probably some 3 point luck in there, but a team that plays a lineup entirely of 6’5-6’8, switchable guys forcing teams into below average perimeter looks also makes sense.
On the other end since January 30th, Bama is shooting 33.8% from 3, and that’s propped up by an 18-30 outlier against Georgia. Like you said there’s 3 point luck involved here, and if that breaks the wrong way for Maryland on the volume we’re gonna see that’s game over. But I also don’t think a team that’s shot ~33% from for the past 1.5 months is a bad matchup for a team that’s been holding teams to 32% 3 point shooting for the past 2.5 months.
The question is how does Maryland score on Bama?? Bama has a terrific defense. Bama has dudes that can guard Morsell, Ayala, and Wiggins.
What is the deal with Thad Matta anyway? The man looks about 70 but he’s somehow in his early 50s … but retired? Is this some fake birth certificate deal?
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He had health problems at the end of his OSU run that combined with his red faced yelling made him look older I guess.
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The hairline didn’t help either
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You know, I hate to say it but the Badgers could be really good next season. They should bring everybody back - Trice, Davison, Reuvers, Potter, Ford, Davis. There won’t be a tougher team to play against in the conference next season. They should be a top 5 team in the country.
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Thad Matta is a great coach - if he’s healthy I’m not sure why he wouldn’t have his pick of jobs.
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