I feel like significant pessimism is kinda your thing. I agree the hole (singular) has not been addressed, but there is still plenty of offseason to go and I’d be surprised if Juwan doesn’t try to fill that scholarship to address that need. Also, I really wouldn’t be surprised if Zeb or Cole surprise some people in helping to fill that hole sooner rather than later.
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You do figure Beilein would get JAR, but not Dickinson. And presumably Castleton would still be on the roster. I think that’s probably a wash, and we’d be freaking out about going into next season with Castleton and who knows what for a backup 5. Definitely a prospect with a different skillset
than Dickinson, and certainly not one rated higher.
They’re likely (and hopefully) returning 3 starters and bringing int 3 top 100 4-star recruits + a grad transfer offensive PG.
Combine that with development from role players like Johns and Bajema and there aren’t many holes on that team.
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I mean… who’s going to dribble the ball? Is Mike Smith going to be Zavier Simpson? Seems likely that he’s a very low-end B10 starting point who struggles mightly to finish at the rim in particular. We also have massive holes in shooting (only bring back two players who shot 35% from 3 or better: Livers and an inconsistent shooter in Brooks), and our posts are not going to be able to play a lick of defense.
This team is definitely going to be noticeably worse than last year’s team I think. We just don’t really replace any of what X and Teske brought
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There is without question an definitely an opportunity lost to take a step up in the preseason rankings. It’s all on Livers coming back and Wagner growing. Do we get the shooter he was billed to be, and the big leap forward into an on-ball creator for himself and others? If so, the offense will be fine. The question is whether he can check guards on D. It’s hard to imagine him chasing shooters around screens effectively, but maybe for stretches he can use his length to keep on-ball guards in front of him.
I really don’t think there’s any way you can definitively say whether or not this team will be better or worse than last years team. You seem to be viewing everything through your own pessimistic lens. Why on earth would we need Mike Smith to be Zavier Simpson? No other team had a starting PG who dribbled the ball as much as X. Mike might struggle at the rim but he has a much better shot. That will leave the lane a lot less clogged than last years team.
Although you failed to mention him in your post Franz Wagner is poised to step into a much bigger role next year. He showed flashes last year that he can both dribble and shoot the ball very well. That (along with potential jumps in those areas by Eli and Livers) will alleviate the pressure from Mike Smith. In no way do we need him to be Zavier Simpson.
Your issue is that you’re comparing the team to last year’s team a bit too much. It’s not about how the basketball team can emulate last year’s team the best, but rather how can this team use what it has on the roster to be the best version of themselves. If you ask me I’d say they definitely have more pieces to potentially contribute than last year.
The one thing I do definitely agree with you on is post defense. They will definitely struggle there, but at the same time the Big Ten will have significantly less low post threats next year than it did last year so that issue won’t be entirely exploited.
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I was speaking to what we were trending towards. JAR, a top 75 big, Zeb who we already had in the fold, and someone else would have been at least as high as this class.
Also this class is about equal to the top end Beilein classes. This class doesn’t stand out anymore than say 2018. Basketball class rankings are pointless because of the small sie and lack of international rankinfs
I would think Wagner has a better chance of getting an NBA guarantee than Livers. His upside is way greater than Livers’ upside.
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To be fair I absolutely expect Wagner to shoot close to 40% at a pretty high volume from 3. He was an excellent shooter his entire life before this year, and the last two years were in the top two professional German Divisions, where the speed was as fast as Division one. Derrick Walton and Peyton Siva played with Franz his final year in Germany and those were fantastic college players. Bajema is a great shooter so if he plays he will shoot it well, Johns will shoot in the mid 30s I think and Brooks should shoot at least 35%. I think Williams will be an efficient shooter as well and if Smith can get decent looks he will shoot mid to high 30s as well. That’s not even counting Livers if he comes back. I really just think the one big need on this roster right now is a guy who can go and get his own or create for others. Christopher would’ve been ideal for that, but so would have Burnett, Springer, Miller and Moody. Unfortunate and unlucky that they missed on every single one of those guys.
I think ballhandling in general will be ok but creating will be an issue unless it’s in the halfcourt offense itself. End of clocks and isos will be problems potentially. Michigan next year will have to be system based like the 2014 team that had Walton at PG and the team played through the likes of Stauskas, Robinson, Levert and Mcgary. The offense will need to be ran heavily through Wagner, Brooks, Johns and hopefully Livers. If Livers does return, then it will be played heavily through Wagner and Livers.
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We don’t need anyone to be Simpson, but we need that usage to go somewhere. In my opinion, it’s not ideal at all for the majority of it to go to Brooks. It’s going to have to be a combo of Brooks, Smith and Wagner, which yes theoretically could work. But there’s a lot of ways that ends very very badly, and I think to @ReegsShannon’s point, it wasn’t solved for in the recruiting class, unless you consider Zeb a big piece of next season’s rotation.
I think Zeb will factor into the rotation yes but also, why is nobody putting Franz Wagner into that role? I wouldn’t be surprised if he has the highest usage on the team next year.
This terrifies me. The talent discrepancy between the first group and the second group is huge to me.
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If Wagner doesn’t enter the draft.
Does anyone think that will happen? I really haven’t seen that as seriously discussed as Livers and we’ve yet to really hear anything about that from Franz right?
I named Franz in my post, I just have my doubts that Franz will suddenly start creating for others. Create his own shots, I definitely think he will grow in that area.
If anyone is gonna be that guy it’s gonna be Franz. He’ll be our best offensive option next year.
Right but in the initial post Franz wasn’t even mentioned. Also it’s not like Franz would suddenly start creating for others and creating his own shots. He’s already demonstrated he can do both of those things with much lower usage.
That’s fair but I think the overall talent levels in the Big Ten and nationally aren’t as good as 2013 and 2014 or prior. More and more high end prospects are leaving college early or forgoing college altogether, transfer ups and grad transfers are more common and roster turnover in general is at an all time high which hurts chemistry and cohesiveness. Those are things that this current roster will have advantages over most other high end programs nationally. The stability is pretty strong at Michigan all things considered. Most the core is intact outside of Dejulius leaving if Livers returns.
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Franz had an assist rate of 5% and a turnover rate of 12% on 20% usage last year.
For reference, Iggy (who many considered a black hole in terms of creating for others) had a 6% assist rate and an 8% turnover rate on 26% usage his freshman season.
Franz has a lot of growing to do in that area.
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That’s fair, but I think it’s hard for anyone to deny that Franz doesn’t at least have the potential to do those things.
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