What were those same numbers like for the last month or two of the year? Not arguing just curious if you could find that out. Because at the start of the year, Franz was borderline atrocious offensively at times because he missed so much time from his wrist injury and didn’t have much of a preseason because he came in late from FIBA events. Once he got into a groove he really started to roll.
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Franz did not demonstrate nearly enough to expect him to be a primary pick and roll option next year. If anything, his ability to handle in tight spaces/through contact was very suspect. Maybe that’s resolved completely with strength gains (although how is he gonna get those right now), but it seems more likely that he’s a very good “secondary option” as far as ability. I’ve always liked the Wieskamp comp. I’d never expect Wieskamp to carry an offense by himself.
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A lot of Franz’s numbers over the course of the whole season tell a lot different story than what looking at how quickly he progressed near the end of the season. I guess it might just be my opinion but I think he is poised to make big jumps in a lot of different areas.
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Check out some stats from last year on Wagner and his pick 'n roll. Yes, it’s a smaller sample size but the numbers do speak for themselves. I implore you to check out the full stats in the link below the quote:
“Although the sample size is merely 30 possessions, Franz Wagner has flashed an elite ability to score off the screen—he’s over 1.1 points per possession when no other Wolverine cracks 0.9. He’s passing about half the time with efficiency that approaches Simpson’s. What’s most impressive about the scoring is it’s mostly come on drives; if Wagner adds a pull-up three-pointer he’ll be absolutely lethal. Think a longer Nik Stauskas. Try not to drool.”
https://mgoblog.com/content/michigan's-killer-pick-and-roll-offense-part-one
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The usage has to go to someone, but why does it have to go to a guard like Brooks or Smith? The usage can get balanced out across Wagner, Livers, and our other wings/bigs.
The offense doesn’t have to be carried by a point guard. Look at Wisconsin in the past few years with Happ or MSU when it was with Miles Bridges. Michigan does not have the equivalent of one of those players, but the point is you can still balance out usage or the offense with wings or bigs.
I’m thinking a lot more goes to Wagner and Livers with Smith/Brooks playing more of a facilitator or spot shooter role. Then you also have a skilled 7’2 guy coming in who already has more post moves than Teske.
The sky isn’t falling
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I’m aware, but I’m not willing to project an incredibly small sample size as the 4th option to being able to handle 8-10 times more burden. And I go back to the eyeball scouting on this: Franz has shown no ability in the past to consistently can pull-up 3 pointers and his handling is significantly worse than Nik’s. Nik always had a point-guard level handle. Wagner is about the level of an average 3.
He makes good decisions but the skill isn’t there, IMO.
Livers can only score on spot-ups and transition. How exactly is he adding more effective usage?
I can translate this…
“I see those numbers and hard facts, but they don’t prove what I want to believe so I’ll just ignore the numbers and go based on my own eyeballs.”
Franz doesn’t need to replace Simpson or even be the point guard. He just needs to be the guy on a few more possessions per game and I think his improvement down the stretch this past season and overall shooting numbers show he can do that.
It’s almost like you want Michigan to suck.
The discrepancy in defensive ability is very encouraging, however.
It is pretty easy to project sizable growth for Franz in all aspects of the game. He is a) the most talented player on the roster b) improved every game and played his best over the last month c) is making the famous freshman to sophomore jump when players usually improve the most d) is going to have significantly more opportunities offensively.
I wouldn’t read into the specifics of 30 ball screen possessions, especially deriving anything from the points/play numbers because they are such small samples, but right now it would be surprising if Franz doesn’t make huge usage leaps in all facets offensively.
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On the very small chance Adam Miller does come to Michigan, he would go a long ways towards solving this main issue within the roster. The reason he’s not as highly rated as say a Christopher or Springer is because he’s only around 6’3 maybe and not the athlete as the former two. But his skill level is high and he’s got a very aggressive mindset. Similar to what Rocket Watts had in high school.
Im not getting my hopes up at all on this happening though. I’d say 5% chance at best right now.
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His usage went from 15% to 18% last year and his numbers improved across the board. He was injured for a significant part of the year, but when he was healthy he helped Michigan space the floor and he showed some ability to slash.
There isn’t a reason to think he can’t continue to improve, especially if he stays healthy
It’s 30 possessions bro… go back and watch those possessions and tell me that it’s hard proof that Franz is going to be 6’8” Zavier Simpson. It’s the same reason why 30 three pointers from a 10% usage guy isn’t hard proof that someone is an elite shooter
I never said he is going to be 6’8 Zavier Simpson. In fact, I’ve explicitly said he doesn’t have be Simpson. He just has to increase his usage offensively…You made the point that you think Wagner is “very suspect” with his ability to handle the ball in tight spaces or contact.
I provided those numbers in an albeit small sample size because it shows that he has done it and it’s reasonable to expect him to be able to continue to improve
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Several weeks ago Dylan wrote an article that BOTH Livers and Wagner weren’t sure of what they were going to do next year. A couple weeks later Livers said he was entering the NBA draft process. We haven’t heard a thing from Franz. I think Franz has until April 26 to make decision on whether to enter the draft process like Livers is doing.
I agree. Just don’t think that reasonable projection gets to a level that allows the offense to continue at the pace it was before or improve.
Sadly I don’t have clips of every Michigan play, but we all saw it all year as Franz would attempt to drive and immediately lose his dribble. This is not something I’m making up, assuredly you remember it. Take a look at some of the plays that Ace highlights in that piece for Franz:
He passed over Jahaad Proctor to an open guy right in front of him with minimal help. Then on the second clip he failed to get to the rim and then he did a herky-jerky mid-range move around Evan Boudreaux. That stuff is pretty emblematic of what Franz’s creation offense was last year. Picking your spots, taking advantage of minimal help vs particularly favorable matchups, minimal ball-handling (either basic or advanced). That’s NOT what Stauskas or Trey Burke or Xavier Simpson look like executing a pick and roll. He is very very far away from that. He will improve of course, but X had 25% usage and a 43% assist rate. He created (approximately since X was not the recepient of many assists) 68% of the offense last year. THAT’S INSANE. It’s gonna take A LOT to replace that. I just don’t think we have A LOT of shot creation.
40+ new posts since my visit this morning had me thinking that Adam Miller might be committing to us.
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As ChathaM points out, this is a threat about Adam Miller lol. But you really just used two clips where Wagner lead directly to buckets. In one he creates space and finds the open man for an easy layup. In the second, he still makes an offensive move to score.
I don’t think I’ve ever seen someone use two clips of a player doing something well and then using it to as points to criticize him.
Edit: Also, again…I never said he has to replace X and I never said I expect him to. I’m just arguing that he showed he has the offensive ability to increase his usage and become the guy on offense.
… The point is that the highest of highs for Wagner are not the stuff of “high usage pick and roll guard” that you can project to be able to handle 200+ pick and roll possessions while being the offensive focus and main scouting focus of the other team. You even see in particular his weaknesses in the second clip when notable slow person Evan Boudreaux forces him to pick up his dribble in the mid-range. Clips with positive outcomes can still be analyzed for their content and projectability. That’s inherently what scouting is.
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