Thoughts on 2014-15 season

Michigan Basketball
1

First, I am going under the assumption that Mitch leaves. If he stays, I’ll be pleasantly pleased.

So our roster looks like this:
5 - RFr Donnal, Fr Doyle, RJr Bielfeldt
4 - Fr Chatman, Fr Wilson
3 - So Irvin, Fr Hatch
2 - Jr LeVert, Fr Abdur-Rahkman
1 - So Walton, Jr Albrecht

Plus I don’t really have any hopes of getting someone who can contribute significantly this late for the coming season. If I thought McGary were coming back, I’d feel comfortable saying we’d be a Final Four caliber team. As it is, at this point, I’d say we’ll be in the 20-25 range, maybe an 8-9 seed.

Last year we were able to mostly overcome the loss of our three best players (Burke, Hardaway, McGary) by the great improvement of LeVert and Stauskas and solid, veteran play of Morgan. This year we won’t be able to replace any of the losses with veterans. Our 4 and 5 positions will be extremely inexperienced, but on the other hand, they’ll possess a collection of skill sets Beilein hasn’t had since he’s been here. Chatman will provide a playmaking ability at the 4 that we haven’t had. He and Wilson, particularly, will give us length we haven’t had in awhile there, with Wilson giving the shot-blocking ability, IMO, that we’ve only had with McGary two seasons ago. We haven’t had 5s who could shoot like Donnal and Doyle, who easily have more offensive skill than Morgan and Horford. But again, they are all so inexperienced and unfortunately no one rebounds like McGary could. It’d be nice if we could redshirt one or both of Doyle and Wilson, but I think they both have to be part of the rotation because Donnal and Chatman can’t play 40 minutes per game.

On the other hand, our 1-3 positions look pretty solid. I expect big improvements from Walton and Irvin and think LeVert will be 1st team All B1G. There won’t be many opposing back courts who can handle us. It’d be nice if Albrecht can make some improvements, especially defensively a la Stu Douglass, in order to alleviate some playing time. Or Abdul-Rahkman to give us a few.

So it comes down to our freshman front court. If the stars align and Donnal, Doyle, and Wilson all reach or get close to their potential earlier than expected, then we can be dangerous come tournament time. But I think it’s a lot to ask Doyle, especially, to be able to contribute much his freshman year. And along those lines, a lot to ask of Donnal to hopefully be a steadying veteran force in the post. And we’ll probably need Wilson to give us about 10 min a game.

It’s going to be another fun and exciting year to see how the pieces come together. Go Blue!

2

That’s a nice synopsis. Thank you.

Apologies for being a downer, but I agree with you on McGary. And it’s a bit sad to think about not only the difference that he would make on the court this year, but also how that could set up for the roster going forward. And, by that, I mean if he’s around then he and Caris are carrying this team and then likely declaring. Without him, it leaves a void that Irvin will fill. Will Irvin then go a year earlier than he would have? Then our roster will be heavily dependent on 2015 recruiting. Basically…it would be sad if the domino effect always left us a player short.

3

with McGary - top 8 team, 1-2 seed…top 2 B10

w/out McGary - top 30 team, 5-6 seed…top 4 B10

4

5 - Fr Doyle, RFr Donnal
4 - RFr Donnal, Fr Wilson
3 - So Irvin, Fr Chatman, Fr Wilson
2 - Jr LeVert, Fr Chatman, Fr Abdur-Rahkman
1 - So Walton, Jr LeVert, Jr Albrecht, Fr Chatman

5

Don’t think we can count on Hatch at all next year. We’ll have Walton and Albrecht at PG, LevVert, Irving and Abdur-Rakhman to rotate among the two big guard spots (maybe with some Chatman in there), Donnal, Doyle, Wilson and Beilfeldt as bigs, and Chatman splitting 3/4. There will be some growing pains on the front line, but we’ll have a very good backcourt. We could do much worse.

6

Assuming ( I know ) that Mitch is gone, what a difference it’s going to be for Caris to be the focal point of every opposing teams defense. There will be no Nik to take pressure off of him, and he will be dogged for 40’minutes.

7

Very spot on. A pretty big intangible in my mind is how much poise a squad with so little veteran talent is going to play with. We’ve over-achieved wildly in this category of late. McGary might have brought some needed swag along as he anchored the middle. I won’t hold it against anybody, including our backcourt, if we look pretty shaky as we work out what will have to be some pretty different approaches to buckets. And there may be times when we just get handled by more aggressive/veteran teams. Quit a lot of talent, but I could see a scenario in which we struggled quite a lot.

8

Totally agree. It seems likely our offensive efficiency will be severely tested to met previous high standards.

9
That's a nice synopsis. Thank you.

Apologies for being a downer, but I agree with you on McGary. And it’s a bit sad to think about not only the difference that he would make on the court this year, but also how that could set up for the roster going forward. And, by that, I mean if he’s around then he and Caris are carrying this team and then likely declaring. Without him, it leaves a void that Irvin will fill. Will Irvin then go a year earlier than he would have? Then our roster will be heavily dependent on 2015 recruiting. Basically…it would be sad if the domino effect always left us a player short.

Good point. I expect Irvin and Walton to have big years as the 2nd and 3rd options (not necessarily in that order) making it a real possibility one of them could earn a 1st round grade. If it’s Walton, I would then hope he either stays for his junior year, or Brunson holds off until the Spring for a decision (not likely). Regardless, I generally don’t worry much about our perimeter play. So I think we’ll be fine there in '15-'16. Plus without McGary, Donnal and Doyle will get more experience than they would have with him, making them a real plus for the '15-'16 season.

10
5 - Fr Doyle, RFr Donnal 4 - RFr Donnal, Fr Wilson 3 - So Irvin, Fr Chatman, Fr Wilson 2 - Jr LeVert, Fr Chatman, Fr Abdur-Rahkman 1 - So Walton, Jr LeVert, Jr Albrecht, Fr Chatman

A. Assuming you’re listing the starters first at each position. B. We won’t be playing 2 bigs. C. Generally the 5 best players start and play the most…I don’t foresee Doyle ahead of Chatman or even Wilson, in fact I think we’re more likely to see Chatman and Wilson together than Doyle and Donnal. D. You’ve got Irvin pegged in at one position, but Donnal and Wilson at two and Chatman at three positions.

11
Assuming ( I know ) that Mitch is gone, what a difference it's going to be for Caris to be the focal point of every opposing teams defense. There will be no Nik to take pressure off of him, and he will be dogged for 40'minutes.

Yes. We’ll need Walton to really step up in that regard and I think he can. I’m also hopeful Chatman can be a pressure release for those two.

12

I am looking for Irvin to have a big impact next year. If he does that will take pressure of Caris offensively. Irvin showed more ability to drive to the hole in his limited minutes as the season went on. He will need to continue that growth this summer. Go Blue!

13

I dont ever see Irvin leaving the Game, He is a wing, our 2/3 do the same things with the 2 maybe bringing the ball up court a little more and calling plays. And if Irvin does have to leave the game for whatever reason, I see Chatman and Wilson taking on his role. If it makes you feel better, how about we just list Irvin as a 2 just behind LeVert but ahead of Chatman and Rahkman. As for B. We’ve never had the right type of players to pull it off. I believe Donnal has the skill set to allow us to play 2 Bigs in Beileins System.

5 - Fr Doyle, RFr Donnal
4 - RFr Donnal, Fr Wilson
3 - So Irvin, Fr Chatman, Fr Wilson
2 - Jr LeVert, Fr Chatman, Fr Abdur-Rahkman
1 - So Walton, Jr LeVert, Jr Albrecht, Fr Chatman

A. Assuming you’re listing the starters first at each position. B. We won’t be playing 2 bigs. C. Generally the 5 best players start and play the most…I don’t foresee Doyle ahead of Chatman or even Wilson, in fact I think we’re more likely to see Chatman and Wilson together than Doyle and Donnal. D. You’ve got Irvin pegged in at one position, but Donnal and Wilson at two and Chatman at three positions.

14

C - Mitch McGary(30)/Mark Donnal(10)
F - Kam Chatman(25)/Mark Donnal(10)/ DJ Wilson(5)
F - Zak Irvin(30)/Kam Chatman(5)/Muhammad Ali Abdur-Rahkman(5)
G - Caris LeVert(30)/Zak Irvin(5)/Spike Albrecht(5)
G - Derrick Walton(30)/Spike Albrecht(5)/Caris Levert(5)

No McGary:

C - Mark Donnal(25)/ Ricky Doyle (10)/Beilfeldt(5)
F - Kam Chatman(30)/Mark Donnal(5)/ DJ Wilson(5)
F - Zak Irvin(30)/Kam Chatman(5)/Muhammad Ali Abdur-Rahkman(5)
G - Caris LeVert(30)/Zak Irvin(5)/Spike Albrecht(5)
G - Derrick Walton(30)/Spike Albrecht(5)/Caris Levert(5)

15

FWIW, end of the season MPGs are always over 40mpg. If starters miss a game, their MPG doesn’t take a hit while their reserves MPG goes up.

16
FWIW, end of the season MPGs are always over 40mpg. If starters miss a game, their MPG doesn't take a hit while their reserves MPG goes up.

Another reason to use minute percentage! (Although that wouldn’t jive with this sort of debate by position.)

17

I will gladly take the over on Spike getting more than 10 minutes per game.

18

It seems like we only get younger and younger since Burke led us to the title run a few years ago (I know we were one of the youngest teams in the tournament then and now we have 0 seniors on the team and only 3 juniors).

Anyway, I am super excited to see Mark Donnal play this coming year and I think this year is the perfect year for a trip overseas.

19

So are the incoming freshmen allowed to participate in the European trip, even if they’re not enrolled? Or is it only for current players? Or do they “enroll” the newcomers in some meaningless summer class to get them eligible?

This is certainly a team that would benefit from early, extra practice and game experience, in particular our front court players.

20

Yes, incoming freshmen play.