Submit your 2023-24 over/under props!

Michigan Basketball
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It is officially time to submit your over/under props for the 2023-24.

You submit your over/under prop and set the number and I go through and give my best guess. When I publish the article everyone can vote with their opinion and we can look back after the season and see where we went wrong.

Note: Whenever possible, try to stick to rates, percentages and per-game statistics because they don’t vary based on how many games Michigan plays.

Submit your over/under props in this thread and I’ll post my predictions in the coming days.

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Over/under 35.5% team 3 point shooting percentage?

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Jackson scoring average 10ppg. Over/under.

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Over/Under: 7.5, Michigan’s seed in the B1G tournament.

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Tarris Reed’s FT percentage - over/under 62%.

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Team FT percentage - Over/Under 73%

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YoYo o/u 12.5 minutes per game

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Tarris Reed block rate: 6.5%
Tarris Reed fouls committed: 4.5 per 40 minutes

Dug McDaniel assist percent: 28.5%
Dug McDaniel 2 point FG percent: 43.5%
Dug McDaniel usage: 20.5%

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Michigan ncaa tournament appearances .5

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Michigan’s “Big 3” (Dug, Olli, Reed) combined PPG: O/U 40.5

For Reference, top 3 scorers under Juwan each season:
22/23 -46.7
21/22 - 41.7
21/20 - 39.7
19/20 - 37.4

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11

Wins over Michigan State O/U 0.5

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12

Players drafted next year - O/U 0.5

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13

Are we allowed to submit “this versus that” here too? The one I was thinking for is TWill versus Tray starts. But we can probably rework that into an O/U question about % of games started for each and set the O/U at like 50%?

  • TWill 3pt% - 34.5%
  • Tarris Reed blocks - 65 (which would be top-ten in Michigan history)

Here’s the most blocks per season in Michigan history. If Reed maintains his rate and doubles his minutes (427 last year) he’ll be in the low 60s. Hunter was averaging 1000-1100 minutes the last two years and Teske’s 75 came in his junior year when he played a little over 1000 minutes.

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Sure, why not.

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GW3 3 point percentage: 38.5%

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JL vs GW minutes
Jace vs Khayat minutes

The other one I was thinking about is something related to all-B10 teams. Terrible metric given the erratic voting behavior, but considering Michigan wasn’t named to anything pre-season it feels relevant. How about…

  • Michigan players named to the top-3 teams (coaches or media) = 0.5
  • Nkamhoua all-B10 team = 2.5 (meaning you take the under if you think 1st or 2nd, over if 3rd or HM)
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O/U (100) how many times open thread participants opine “this isn’t a tournament team” during November games.

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If this hits over and doesn’t include Olivier:

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Games where Jackson or Tschetter has to play the 5? 6.5

Dug McDaniel dunks? 1.5

Games Martelli is acting head coach? 8.5

Trophies for Man City? 1.5

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over/under: AdjT 69.25

over/under: 3PA% on offense 37.05

over/under: FTR on offense 34.85

using KenPom’s numbers

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