Submit your 2021-22 over/under props

Michigan Basketball
21

My line is usually about 10mpg at the end of the year. For context, here’s the last couple of years:

2021: Austin Davis (#8)=11.2; TWill (#9)=7.6; Zeb (#10)=5.3
2020: Davis (#8)=10.7; Castleton (#9)=7.9; Nunez (#10)=7.6
2019: Brooks (#7)=12.9; BJJ (#8)=4.1; DDJ (#9)=3.8

That’s one of the reasons why I’m fascinated about the minutes the freshmen and Zeb are going to play this year. I can totally see Collins, Bufkin, and even Barnes being talented enough to deserve minutes. But history shows that only 7-8 guys are going to play 10mpg and the 9th person is going to get erratic minutes.

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22

I’m thinking the line on that should be set at like 20 or so

23

Over or under 4.5 for weeks ranked in the top 5 nationally

24

there is no perfect way to quantify “regular rotation” but maybe a more meaningful definition would be play more than 10m in more than half of the games.

I see T-Will in rotation this year, and one of Zeb/Bufkin, maybe both gets meaningful minutes. Frankie might get the same usage as Zeb got last season. I expect Zeb to finish much better than last year, become a threat from 3 and a solid defender. Bufkin has talent but not physically ready yet, I see him playing 7-8 min a game but he should stay away from injury. Frankie will need time to adjust his game against bigger and stronger defenders in college and work on his FT but he might be able to put some games together by end of the season.

25

Total MPG of Freshman in B1G play: 50.5

(My thinking is Caleb 30ish, Moussa 12ish, Kobe 5ish?)

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26

O/U Houstan drafted at pick 7.5?
O/U Dickinson drafted at pick 49.5?

27

That’s about 23% (30+12+5)/200

Thinking I should lower it to 30%. With your minutes allocation still need to give 23 minutes to the frosh to hit 35%

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28

Juwan Howard technical fouls o/u 3.5

29

Over/Under: 3.5 Caleb Houstan “dagger” 3-pointers. (Under 2 minutes to increase/give us the lead or break a tie in close game)

Over/Under: 1.5 total season technical fouls vs Maryland.

Over/Under: 14.5 games before a change is made to the day-1 starting lineup.

Over/Under: 3.5 Adrien Nunez made 3-pointers in the season.

Over/Under: .5 Zion/Chaundee “shoe explosions” this season.

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30

I’m already throwing things at the wall at the concept of Kobe Bufkin and Moussa Diabate combining for 17 minutes total per game

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31

People are not used to the idea of five star players being different than normal freshmen

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32

remember Bobby Crowford?

that said, Mousse should play about 25 minutes per game. Kobe, probably closer to 10
than to 5mpg.

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33

Moussa will get 12 just as a backup 5. Then anything at the 4 is gravy. Kobe getting 5 would be bordering on shucking. That’s TWill level of minutes

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34

If Beilein played freshman Jordan Poole 13 minutes a game behind senior MAAR and upperclassmen Matthews/Duncan on the wing, Kobe’s getting that minimum on this year’s team.

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35

See…I think the freshmen are the story here. You make a great case for Bufkin and Diabate minutes. But there are so many storylines to factor in…

  • So Bufkin as the #45 recruit to 247 HAS to play minutes…but no one mentions Collins in the rotation as the #46 recruit?
  • Can Bufkin play the three to earn his minutes? Then maybe he’s pushing 20…but we like TWill also.
  • Diabate will get 10 minutes at center for sure…can he figure out how to play along side Hunter as a freshman? BJJ always struggled to play both PF and C.
  • Maybe an interesting prop has to do with the minutes played at forward between John’s, TWill, Diabate, Houston, and Bufkin. That’s a lot of names for 80 minutes.

My O/U? Houston 26.5, Diabate 19.5, Bufkin 12.5, Collins 5.5

36

32%, not bad

37

I love Collins too I just think he basically has to play point guard to see the floor. Bufkin can play 2/3, Houstan can play 3/4, Diabate can play 4/5.

Mine would be:
Houstan - 29.5
Diabate - 20.5
Bufkin -19.5 (and I hope it’s way over)
Collins - 6.5

38

(And potentially let Eli play the one, which is almost like another position.)

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39

If Bufkin plays more than expected it will be at Davante Jones expense. You can pencil Brooks in for 30+ minutes and you’re kidding yourself if you think otherwise

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40

I think it would actually be at Johns/TWill/Diabate’s expense aka I think they’ll go super small and play Bufkin/Brooks/Jones together

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