It is officially time to submit your over/under props for the 2021-22 season!
You submit your over/under prop and set the number and I go through and give my best guess. When I publish the article everyone can vote with their opinion and we can look back after the season and see where we went wrong.
Note: Whenever possible, try to stick to rates, percentages and per-game statistics because they don’t vary based on how many games Michigan plays.
This is the most intriguing storyline to me. If Williams can force himself into BJJ’s minutes with good shooting, I think the sky is the limit for this team. If not, I’m not sure Johns is potent enough on either side of the ball. I’ve been beat up for this opinion in the past. I’m not trying to hurt anyone’s feelings or knock BJJ. I wish him the best, it’s just how I see it.
O/U 35% of big ten minutes played by the freshmen class. I haven’t looked at any past numbers to arrive at this threshold, feel free to adjust. If we assume Houstan plays 80% (32 mpg, about 19% of team minutes), that leaves about 16% to divvy up between remaining players.
I think you need to set this at 8.5. I don’t see any way that Diabate, Bufkin and Williams aren’t in the regular rotation. It’s a question of whether another guy joins them.
I went back and forth on that…you’re probably right. Sorry, go with 8.5.
But it might be closer than you think. Would you count Terrence Williams and BJJ as part of the rotation last year when the BTT rolled around? When it gets to tournament time you’re trying to minimize the minutes for those last couple of guys. Johns played 10 minutes in our opening BTT game and TWill didn’t play at all. Last year you had:
Franz
Livers
Smith
Brooks
Hunter
Chaundee
BJJ
Davis
TWill
The previous year you had:
Simpson
Brooks
Livers
Franz
Teske
DDJ
BJJ
Davis
I think you have your starting 5, Diabate, a backup guard, and a backup wing. But it is possible that Bufkin is your 7th guy and fills the guard and wing backup. It is also possible that TWill, Frankie, Bufkin, and Zeb all get chances.
so I revise my “regular rotation” cut-off to 7.5mpg from an early version of 5mpg
more precise version for “regular rotation”
players with minutes per game > 7.5: 8.5