Submit your 2021-22 over/under props

It is officially time to submit your over/under props for the 2021-22 season!

You submit your over/under prop and set the number and I go through and give my best guess. When I publish the article everyone can vote with their opinion and we can look back after the season and see where we went wrong.

Note: Whenever possible, try to stick to rates, percentages and per-game statistics because they don’t vary based on how many games Michigan plays.

Here’s a look back at last year’s results if you are looking for inspiration .

Submit your over/under props in this thread and I’ll post my predictions in the coming days.

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32.5 3P% for Davante Jones

30 3PA for BJJ

.5 starts for Kobe Bufkin

Michigan players who win big ten freshman of the week O/U 2.5

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O/U 40% 3 point shooters (with 40+ 3PA) - 1.5

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O/U 3.5 different starting lineups on the season

O/U 14.5 PPG for Caleb Houstan

O/U 29.5 minutes per game for Eli Brooks

O/U 1.5 one and done freshmen at the end of the season

O/U 0.5 banners raised

O/u kenpom defense ranking 5.5
O/u offense ranking 15.5

O/U 8.5 Non-Conference Wins

O/U 20.0 minutes per game for Diabate

O/U 1.5 games where Hunter fouls out

O/U 4.5 players who finish the season averaging >20mpg

O/U 2.5 podcasts where Dylan and BQ argue about Fatts Russell’s value

O/U 3.5 centers who end the year on the all-B10 team

O/U 7.5 players who are considered part of Michigan’s regular rotation by season’s end

O/U 1.5 more high school recruits that will sign with Michigan in the 2022 class

Wins vs. Illinois (including B1G Tournament): 1.5

NCAA Tournament wins: 3.5

Wins at the Breslin Center: .5

Minutes Played for Brandon Wade: 6.5

Times Will Tschedder bleeds or causes bleeding in a game (Zack Novak-vibes here): 0.5

Who makes more threes this year?

Johns / Williams

This is the most intriguing storyline to me. If Williams can force himself into BJJ’s minutes with good shooting, I think the sky is the limit for this team. If not, I’m not sure Johns is potent enough on either side of the ball. I’ve been beat up for this opinion in the past. I’m not trying to hurt anyone’s feelings or knock BJJ. I wish him the best, it’s just how I see it.

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Hunter over/under 5.5 made 3PFG on the season.

Do we count Illinois-esque regular season banners from last year?

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O/U 35% of big ten minutes played by the freshmen class. I haven’t looked at any past numbers to arrive at this threshold, feel free to adjust. If we assume Houstan plays 80% (32 mpg, about 19% of team minutes), that leaves about 16% to divvy up between remaining players.

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Hunter Dickinson Technical Fouls: 3.5

Hunter Dickinson 3s made: 20.5

Zeb Jackson minutes per game: 5.5

I think you need to set this at 8.5. I don’t see any way that Diabate, Bufkin and Williams aren’t in the regular rotation. It’s a question of whether another guy joins them.

I went back and forth on that…you’re probably right. Sorry, go with 8.5.

But it might be closer than you think. Would you count Terrence Williams and BJJ as part of the rotation last year when the BTT rolled around? When it gets to tournament time you’re trying to minimize the minutes for those last couple of guys. Johns played 10 minutes in our opening BTT game and TWill didn’t play at all. Last year you had:

  1. Franz
  2. Livers
  3. Smith
  4. Brooks
  5. Hunter
  6. Chaundee
  7. BJJ
  8. Davis
  9. TWill

The previous year you had:

  1. Simpson
  2. Brooks
  3. Livers
  4. Franz
  5. Teske
  6. DDJ
  7. BJJ
  8. Davis

I think you have your starting 5, Diabate, a backup guard, and a backup wing. But it is possible that Bufkin is your 7th guy and fills the guard and wing backup. It is also possible that TWill, Frankie, Bufkin, and Zeb all get chances.

last year
Zeb: 5.3mpg
T-will: 7.6mpg
BJJ: 12.9mpg

so I revise my “regular rotation” cut-off to 7.5mpg from an early version of 5mpg
more precise version for “regular rotation”
players with minutes per game > 7.5: 8.5

BJJ yes, TWill no. But I think TWill plays a much bigger role this year and the guys in front of him won’t be as immovable as Franz and Livers were.

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O/U 75
3 point attempts for hunter Dickinson

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