A lot of the discussion this offseason has revolved around the starting lineup, where Mitch McGary and Glenn Robinson play, etc.
Love to hear some of your thoughts.
First: Who are the best five players - talent wise on Michigan’s roster?
Second: Who would you start?
Third: Who falls in your rotation? 6,7,8,9?
I’d go with a continuation of the small-ball lineup because it is the most talented lineup.
1.Walton
2.Stauskas
3.Irvin
4.Robinson
5.McGary
It’s really hard to decide on the rotation, though. I’d take Albrecht, LeVert, Morgan, Horford, Donnal as serious rotation players, and that still leaves Bielfeldt out in the cold.
@Daniel The rotation is where it gets interesting… 11 guys aren’t all going to play rotation minutes. I have a hard time seeing Bielfeldt not left in the cold but if all five guys you list play notable minutes that’s still a 10 man rotation. Do you have room for McGary/Robinson/Morgan/Horford/Donnal to get minutes at the 4-5? That’s the reason you start to look at moving Robinson to the three IMO.
McGary, GRIII, Stauskas, Irvin, and Walton. Caveats: LaVert could make a big leap by next year and freshmen are unproven until they step into a college game; Morgan and Horford can provide quite a bit for college posts.
Who starts is not particularly important to me. But I would finish offensively with McGary, Stauskas, GRIII, Irvin and Walton. Defensively you might switch Stauskas and Irvin for Morgan and LaVert. I think the best 5 overall could depend on matchups but will likely be Walton, Stauskas, Irvin, GRIII and McGary.
I can’t see the following playing less than 15-20 minutes a game. McGary, GRIII, Walton, Stauskas, and Irvin. I think Morgan/Horford (both or whoever wins the job), LaVert and Spike will see a good amount of minutes, somewhat depending on the opposition.
What will be very interesting is how much the bench plays, not just who’s on it. Beilein at UM generally has played starters heavy minutes, but sometimes at WVU he played bench guys quite a bit. Do we see a couple bench players average over 20 minutes? Do guys 8 and 9 in the rotation see more than a minute or two in tight games?
@UMHoopsFan Good point on bench minutes. In his years at Michigan, UM has ranked 333, 343, 337, 327, 66, 62 in bench minutes. Once he had a group of guys he trusted he rode with them. Believe he played a lot of guys on the '07 team at WVU that won the NIT but his famous tourney teams were also very short rotations.
@UMHoopsFan Good point on bench minutes. In his years at Michigan, UM has ranked 333, 343, 337, 327, 66, 62 in bench minutes. Once he had a group of guys he trusted he rode with them. Believe he played a lot of guys on the '07 team at WVU that won the NIT but his famous tourney teams were also very short rotations.
My guess is that JB will play the bench a bit more than the past couple of years because his options will be better. Let’s assume that McGary, GRIII, Walton (or Spike), Stauskas and Morgan are starters. That means that he has a sophmore LaVert, Irvin, Donnal, and a RSJr Horford on the bench, not to mention Spike. Has JB ever had quality players on the bench and not played them? However, I do think there will be some games where nobody outside the top 6 or 7 plays more than a few minutes. So there will be some pretty decent players not getting much burn on certain nights.
Walton, Irvin, Stauskas, GRIII, and McGary will be the most talented players going into the season. Levert and Donnal IMHO could have ceileings that would put them in the same conversation, but they are not going to hit them this year between Donnal’s first year in the B1G and Levert continuing to need to add weight as he gets taller.
At the start of the year, I see the lineup shaking out as follows:
Albrecht
Stauskas
GRIII
McGary
Morgan
This gets the most experience out there early on. Getting closer to the end of the year/March I think the lineup will become
This is a smallball lineup, but would stretch the floor at all 5 positions.
Looking at the rotation near the end of the season (i.e. using the above starting 5) the remaining rotation of players would be as follows
Jordan Morgan
Spike Albrecht
Caris Levert
Jon Horford (bumps up if playing two big lineup)
Mark Donnal (only used if redshirt is burned)
I have a hard time shaking that if this season seems to be on a similar track as last season, that Donnal won’t end up finding time by the end of it all. His skillset is extremely unique on the team and I think he can contribute with some development.
@Dingoblue, I agree about Donnal. If he can bang with Big Ten types this season, I’d expect to see him on the court this season.
If we go with the lineup with GRIII at the three, as @umhoops mentioned, I’d expect to see Morgan/Donnal/Bielfeldt at the 4 and McGary/Horford at the 5, with occasional spells using McGary as the power forward. It sounds kind of awesome.
This in my opinion, will be the initial starting lineup, with changes coming as the coaches get acquainted with the personnel.
I expect Glen Robinson the third to lead the big 10 in scoring. Robinson will be able to score in a variety of ways including offensive rebounds, three-pointers, transition, off the bounce, and post. He will be a man amongst boys at the 3 position and an All-American in my opinion
Make Stauskas the 6 man or have him start some games in place of Irving.
Leaving Donnal out of the rotation would be a great move for the future of the program. Bigs just take longer to develop, and it has been well documented that the kid needs to add weight. Unless he is significantly better than the Horford/Morgan combo, and I’d guess that he’s not right now, I’d love to see him redshirted.
I will add another comment in addition to my post…or go “small” and some games start Walton, Stauskas, Irving, Puppy, Jordan Morgan
I have a feeling the starting lineup will be Albrecht, Irvin, Robinson III, McGary, Horford to start the season off. I would rather have Morgan in there at the 5, especially because he is an All B1G Defensive Player. But it seems like Beilein has always liked Horford more than Morgan and I think he starts there at the beginning of the season. Morgan and Walton would be the first two off the bench with Caris getting big minutes as well.
By the end of the season, I think the starting 5 will be Walton, Irvin, Stauskas, Robinson III, McGary because those are the 5 most talented on the roster. In that case, only Morgan or Horford would get major minutes off the bench with Spike and Caris filling out the rest of the bench minutes
Also I think Beilein will play a good amount of two PG sets like he did last season but this time with Spike and Walton. It would let Walton more easily transition into the offense as a freshman as well
^Good point on talent. I just think we have the ability to run a few different starting lineups depending on match ups. Go big or go small is a nice luxury.
Everyone is sleeping on Donnal. That kid will be the best pure post player we have on the roster next year.
Everyone is sleeping on Donnal. That kid will be the best pure post player we have on the roster next year.
More excited about his offensive skill/three point shot. Could give us more versatility to go with two big guys even though he’s a skinnier guy. Not sure how much impact he can make on the block at 200lbs.
Oops I forgot Stauskas. I think he would start at the 2 over Irvin to start the season off, and Irvin would move into the starting lineup at the 2 by the end of the year and Stauskas would move over to the 3
1.Walton/Albrecht
2.Levert/Albrecht/Irvin
3.Irvin/Stauskas
4.Robinson/Horford
5.McGary/Morgan
I personally see Levert taking a huge step next year and turning into the defensive stopper he can be. With Irvin supposedly a shut down defender as well the perimeter defense should be vastly improved. Hopefully they can make up for Trey’s clutch defense down the stretch in games. I see the perimeter defense and youth as the only 2 huge question marks.
1. Walton 2. Irving 3. Pup 4. McGary 5. Jordan MorganMake Stauskas the 6 man or have him start some games in place of Irving.
Those were also my initial thoughts. I don’t know if we’ll start game 1 like that, just like Burke didn’t start his very first game at M, but it probably won’t take long before this lineup either starts or sees a lot of time together. The only concern I have is how Stauskas will handle coming off the bench. Seemed to really struggle finding his groove last year when he didn’t start. Also, unless Stauskas improves on defense, Irvin sounds like he may bring much more all-around game to the table.
Secondly, some of our most difficult games last year were against teams like Sparty, who played two bigs. It was a tough matchup for us. Now, we can answer that very well, and be that same matchup nightmare for the rest of the teams in the B1G.