Conference only Irvin/Dawkins are pretty close.
In fact Dawkins was worth slightly more in regards to win shares.
How much does Beilein look at the analytics?
Defensive rating (the estimated one that we are discussing here) on an individual basis is a practically worthless stat. It basically tallies up steals, rebounds, minutes and then looks at the points the team allowed to come up with some sort of by possession estimate.
It works a bit more in the NBA because different lineups and lineup combinations play significantly more minutes, but guys like Irvin, Walton, etc. are going to just end up with the about the same DRtg as the team because they played almost every minute.
Even the Synergy numbers (which assign āblameā or ācreditā on each defensive possession, done by film breakdown) tend to be pretty flawed on an individual level. Grading defense is just so much more complicated because of the schemes, etc. involved.
6 Likes
You track individual defense with your eyes, whether that be live action or in the film room.
Itās a very difficult subject to discuss with a good portion of our fan base because you canāt define it with numbers the same way you can offense. (Though some will try)
1 Like
I understand what youāre saying but it has to at least help to put a value(number) on things. We have seen the D the past 3 years and nothing they have done has seemed to work. Maybe itās time to put a value on things instead of just looking with your eyes because that hasnāt worked to date.
So the answer is a metric which says Andrew Dakich is the third-best defender on the team.
Iām all for metrics and all for changing things with the defense. This is just a bad metric which youāve used in two threads today to draw conclusions that most people would disagree with.
4 Likes
Given this roster, Zak at the 2 for 10-15 minutes (to spell MAAR) makes a lot of sense to me. Zak could play another 10-15 at the 3 with Duncan. Walton and X at the point, Chatman and Wilson at the 4 (with a little Zak thrown in at times). You have to make due with the roster that you have.
The eyes work just fine. We have a coaching staff that chooses to ignore that side of the ball. They see the same things we see. They choose to focus on offense to counter it.
Well if Dakich ended up playing 300-400 minutes then sure. Obviously the metric has merit for individuals playing a lot of minutes. The same metric said Walton was their best defender I am sure most here would agree with that. So does this still make it a bad metric? I want to use my eyes and then see what the numbers tell me. To totally ignore a certain metric because it doesnāt fit your viewing seems short sighted and not using all the resources at your disposal.
In 2014 it says Stauskas was their most effective offensive player and one of their worst defensive players. Seems like that would be the consensus amongst most of the fans but itās a bad metric? If this is the case we should just ignore all stats like this. Do you disagree with that assessment of Stauskas?
No Iām saying itās a bad metric because of how it is computed. Offensive rating, which you are also citing, is a much more valuable metric because there are things in the box score which much more accurately reflected in the box score (points, assists).
Just like FG% or rebounding are bad metrics because they donāt properly measure the question at hand. In that case we have better metrics available (eFG% and offensive rebounding percentage), unfortunately for defense we donāt.
FWIW ā¦ This is how DRtg is calculated. Basically steals and blocks and then everything else weighted by minutes (note not the actual minutes said player is on the floor).
2 Likes
With all the time you spent typing those inane posts lauding IU and diminishing Michigan, you could have simply looked at what goes into the metric, concluded it was garbage, not posted, and done something useful.
2 Likes
RE: Alec Petersā¦ Heās staying at Valpo.
Have you heard any names thrown about that Michigan is interested in at all? Seems like weād have at least somewhat of an idea for targets at this point now that the NBA deadline is passed but itās been quiet so far.
Havenāt heard of any real serious names popping up on the radar. That doesnāt mean there havenāt been, but it has been quiet.
Out of curiosity, has anything emerged about likely destinations for Malik Newman?
I realize he seems like the furthest thing from a U-M prospect (although I think this is based on assumptions about his character and situation which may or may not be substantiated). That said, heās a hugely talented guard who is looking to rebuild his broken draft stockā¦ That alone is intriguing. Letās just hope he doesnāt end up in the Big Ten. I wouldnāt be surprised if he ended up at KU.
No clue about Malik Newman but as you said, the 'one-and-transfer because I thought I should have been a one-and-done" is probably the furthest thing from Michiganās wish list.
On the surface, although seems like his dad put a lot of pressure on him to go to Miss State, which ended up being a very bad decision (no doubt he would be draft-bound if he had picked UK). Just hoping Crean doesnāt get involved.
The other guy that intrigues me is Charles Matthews from UK. He is a solid, defensive-minded wing. I gather he is somebody who didnāt entertain one-and-done ambitions but would be completely buried in UKās rotation if he returned (much as he was last year). He was ultimately ānot good enoughā for Kentucky but would be an excellent fit at most programs. I believe heās from Chicago.
Is he transferring?
My understanding is that Matthews announced his intention to transfer about a week ago. He was a top-60 guy in his class. No clue where he might go but he should be sought after.
Wasnāt Michigan State one of his finalists? I would think MSU might look at him, they still have room.