I have to think they’ll be trying hard to extend Duncan and Nunn now. Like, if you’re Duncan, do you take a 4 year/$24 million that starts next year, realizing that you could PROBABLY get a bigger deal next year, but you’re getting your salary multiplied by six next year? That said, Duncan is pretty old for a 2nd year player, this may be his 1 shot to sign big money.
1 Like
If I were Duncan’s agent I would tell him to take a deal like that from the Heat. He is older, he still has holes in his game, and he found the perfect coach and system for him.
3 Likes
Would it be smart for the pistons to overpay? No. Does that make it more or less likely that they do it though?
1 Like
If he doesn’t stay in Miami I could see him being a good fit for Philly, Dallas or even the Lakers. I heard Buddy Hield could get shipped to any of those places this summer. If Buddy is a target for those teams, I’d imagine Duncan’s contract situation would make him a target for those teams as well because his contract is MUCH lighter on cap space than Buddy’s.
That number seems a little low for a guy who just had an all-time shooting season. I get you basically know what he is at this point physically, but his game is still growing as he becomes more comfortable in the NBA. Even then, his shooting alone makes him a far more intriguing piece than most of the guys in the 5-8 million dollar per year range who signed last year (Rodney Hood, Mike Scott, Demarre Carrol, Ed Davis, Wayne Ellington, etc.): https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nba/news/nba-free-agency-tracker-2019-signings-best-available-players/1g1ylawp9wfu4zyoga75x3isz
I’d guess he’s an 8-10 million dollar per year player if he hit free agency this year, even with the more uncertain cap situation.
1 Like
I think Duncan is going to get paid a lot more than you guys are projecting. Obviously the salary cap situation is going to play a big role with COVID, fans being able to attend games, etc. but if he performs even closely to how he did this past season, he could be in line for $15-17 MM per season. I asked two front office guys I know and one estimated 3/$45 and the other said 3/$50 — basically what I had expected.
He is younger than both, but it will be interesting to see how much money Joe Harris and Davis Bertans get this offseason. They aren’t the same players, but fit a very similar archetype so could help set a ballpark market.
9 Likes
Agreed, I’ve assumed he’d sign for somewhere around $50 mill. Also, despite being old for his first contract, Duncan’s skillset is one that will age well. He’s not looking at one payday, hes a safe bet to play for the next decade.
4 Likes
What a great run for Duncan…he’s going to cash in that $50 Million range. His skill set is so valuable in today’s NBA, he might be a trade asset for the Heat but he’s proven his value! Good for him, I wouldn’t watch the NBA if it’s wasn’t for the UM connections!
I guess that’s the hope. I still have a hard time believing he’s made it this far. But if he can carve out a JJ Reddick or Kyle Korver career where he keeps getting solid 2-3 year deals…why not?
Duncan very likely going to make more money in his first 4 years in the league than being drafted late first round.
1 Like
Every year when we debate whether player X should declare early for the draft or come back to school, one of the prevailing points of view is that players are drafted on potential, it is better to leave early and there isn’t anything to be gained by returning for their senior year. I am not discounting that perspective, but it is nice to see that it occasionally works out well in the NBA for a player who stayed in college for all of their eligibility.
4 Likes
I appreciate the sentiment. But usually we are talking about players who have the option. Duncan really had no choice but to stay.
3 Likes
I agree Duncan wasn’t really a candidate to be drafted after his sophomore or junior year. I guess I was thinking about some of the arguments that have been made that for players with pro aspirations, they are better off leaving school to work on their game full time and get paid, whether in the G League or overseas. Again, I am not discounting that perspective. I just like that this is an example where it was not detrimental to stay in college.
That’s ignoring a large part of the argument. The argument isn’t a kid should leave early to play in the g league or overseas. These players have draft ceilings that are fairly clear to see when they’re on campus. The argument is that if a players current draft stock lines up with his ceiling, he should go because coming back won’t help improve his stock regardless of performance and further development. Don’t think I’ve ever seen anyone argue that kids should just play a year of college and then leave even if they have no shot at the NBA.
An interesting case is VanVleet, not that he opted to return, but declined offers to be drafted in the 2nd round and play in the D-league. He went undrafted free agent, and it worked out nicely for him, although his two-year $18m contract, IMO, is way below the market.
He’s about to get paid handsomely this offseason though
There’s no “right” approach and every player is different in their own decisions, opportunities, and circumstances. I think the point he’s trying to make is that trying to get that first deal ASAP and get into a pro-league is one option a lot of guys take…but always good to see that it isn’t the only option. Tillman is going to do just fine next year and he stuck it out even though he probably could have jumped earlier and worked his way into a solid contract eventually.
Iggy and Poole both hurried to the league and each got solid first contracts. Can’t fault them at all for that given where they are. It is impossible to know if another year at Michigan would have made those first contracts larger or helped them secure a second contract - or if waiting to find out would have been the right decision for them personally. It is easy for some fan like me to say that it would have been better for Iggy to be the star on last year’s team rather than playing in empty G-league arenas…but we have no idea how that would have turned out for him.
1 Like
But the crux of the “just go to the NBA” argument is you are going to improve more if you make the jump. And honestly Duncan is a testament to that.
1 Like
A doubt there is a NBA team that doesn’t believe they can do a better job of coaching up a player than his college could.
1 Like