Yeah, I think the odds of a 4-way first place tie are basically nil, so obviously a win or two here and there are going to get distributed (and I think 13-5 is close to my expectation) - the conference winner generally ends with 3-5 losses (two years ago 3-way tie at 6 losses notwithstanding), not 7, and I expect us to contend for the conference.
While obviously the odds of us running the OOC slate are slim in aggregate, I’m not sure there is a single game there where I don’t think we should be a favorite (Torvik’s view of the dangers of UNC and UCF aside).