Iowa feels a little high and what is up with Rutgers so low? No way they are behind Northwestern.
That AdjO for Gonzaga is startling compared to the field
Does Illinois AdjO seem a little low? I wasn’t expecting them to be behind Ohio State and Iowa.
For comparison Torvik has them at 61
What’s a feasible pathway for Michigan to end up 3rd in offense? Feels really unlikely to me, unless I guess if Johns and/or Diabate and/or TWill have great outside shooting seasons
KenPom projections are based much more on program historical weights from what I gather so I assume this has a lot to do with that:
As far as the actual players or pathway, I think it is pretty clearly Hunter Dickinson being a 1st Team AA/POY candidate (i.e. uptick in usage toward the high 20s) and then someone else being a 22+ usage guy with a great ORtg (this is basically Houstan or Jones IMO).
Pomeroy will point out that to end up at whatever high rank you have now, you will have to outplay the preseason projection because plenty of other teams will outplay their projections and move up. While he pegs Michigan’s adjusted O at 114, that is about par for the course the last 4 years for Michigan (having finished at 117, 113, 114, and 114) having ranked between #9 and #35 at the end of the year in adjusted O. If they simply meet that 114 projection, they definitely won’t end up with the 3rd best offense.
Rutgers feels particularly unpredictable this season. Really hard to know exactly how much of the success was due to Myles Johnson and (last year at least) Jacob Young. I’ll take the over on 7 wins, though.
Research into Jacob Young as a transfer target didn’t really lead me to think that his loss will be a big loss for Pikiell.
I think the loss of Myles Johnson is equally as hard to predict. He was reputed to be a good defensive center, but added nothing on offense and struggled to avoid foul trouble so I am not sure if his reputation quite matched his performance. Then again, in the B10 you face so many good centers that it is hard to look good on defense.
All good points above for Rutgers being ranked where they are but given the relative floor Pikiell has established, their home court advantage and what they do have returning I can’t see Rutgers being below some of the teams they are ranked below. I agree there are some questions but 7 wins seems like a floor to me.
Johnson was one of the best offensive rebounders in the country, and the best on the team by far, which was fairly useful for a team that did not shoot terribly well.
Great season guys! We’ll see you next year!
#33 San Diego State
#40 North Carolina
#47 Arizona
#50 Seton Hall
#61 UCF
#62 Wichita State
#94 Buffalo
UNC seems low. I think they will be a lot better with Garcia and Manek as their stretch 4s rather than playing two posts. Obviously a lot depends on Love’s development though.
I like this a lot. Good to see so many OOC opponents ranked in that sweet spot where beating them would look decent on the resume/analytically but we should be able to pad the record at the same time.