Kenpom preseason rankings are up.
https://kenpom.com/
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Lol. I wouldn’t mind an emergency pod on a Sunday
Ha! We are planning to record one on Monday about MSU’s secret scrimmage and KenPom rankings.
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Someone remind me what this actually means in the pre-season? Obviously it doesn’t, cannot, take into account how roster players may have matured, let alone the contribution of new players. So. . . how we might project the teams given returning talent, their prior season stats, and 19-20 schedule?
At a glance it looks like another opportunity to exceed expectations.
What it means? Ken usually puts out some of the best preseason ratings. They look at rosters, coaches, transfers, newcomers (I believe Ken doesn’t weigh freshman that high except top-30ish types, coaching, etc. Someone can probably link an old KenPom blog where he explains in more detail).
They also impact the regular season ratings for the first 2-3 months of the season (they are gradually phased out).
I think we should be higher for defense. CM was a big loss, but losing JP and Braz are upgrades defensively. Especially if you have Brooks and Livers filling in.
Offensively I think we should be lower.
Wouldn’t losing Yak be enough to hurt the defensive ranking though too?
I think Yak was important for building a foundation. Guys like X and Teske and Livers and Brooks don’t just forget how to defend. Could be wrong though.
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Thanks, would love to see that description of how he compiles. . . doinked around at the site but didn’t see anything. Maybe you have to be a subscriber. Meanwhile, here’s an explainer:
https://fansided.com/2017/11/08/ken-pomeroy-rankings-guide/
And the last time I see that KenPom himself posted something about preseason rankings, two years ago when he started including transfers:
https://kenpom.com/blog/preseason-ratings-now-with-transfers/
My guesses in the over/under thread:
If I had to guess, I’d say Michigan finishes around the top 50 in adjusted offensive efficiency and top 25 in adjusted defensive efficiency.
So I don’t think that far off.
That first link has more to do with the in-season ratings. Second one seems like what you are looking for for the preseason ratings.
Some more stuff on his FAQ: https://kenpom.com/contact.php
Yeah I think the Yak genius has been taken a little too far. I loved what he brought to the table and he was outstanding as a defensive coach. But any team with Simpson, Matthews and Teske playing heavy minutes is going to have great defensive numbers. It was still a question of how Yak’s defenses would look without those guys.
Yak impact probably overrated. Charles Matthews impact probably underrated. Completely brand new coach impact probably fairly rated by KenPom and underrated by others.
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Yeah I would second this.
One Ive always noticed is that Yak and Charles always had an fantastic relationship. It seemed like Yak loved having Charles’ ability and enthusiasm on defense and Charles bought into Yak as well. So whatever their individual impacts were losing both will hurt to an extent.
But as I said before: X, Teske, Livers, Brooks. I think we’ll end up in the top 10 again in KenPom.
Livers at the three is a huge defensive question mark for me. Maybe he answers it, but completely unknown if he can guard the 3.
I think Livers will be a good defender against the majority of the teams we play, he’ll only struggle when matched up against NBA wings.
Hmm, I always saw Livers playing the 4 for the majority of his minutes with Eli and Franz on the wing.
When CC or BJ come in he slides down to the 3.
According to Ken Pomeroy, SI.com used to have the best preseason projections. His are somewhat similar, I believe, but this was SI’s approach before Luke Winn got poached by some NBA team to run their analytics:
https://www.si.com/college-basketball/2016/10/12/team-rankings-projections-predictions-system
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It was Dan Hanner who used to do SI’s projections and he went to work for Brad Stevens in Boston I believe.