KenPom Preseason Ratings - Michigan No. 31

Michigan at No. 31… surprised to see OSU so high at No. 13.

Here’s the first pass at projecting Michigan’s season with the KP ranks.

Projected record says 10-8 but only shows 5 conference losses? I’m confused

That’s the average number of wins we get. It just lists it as a W on the summary if we have over a 50% chance of winning.

Alright thanks

That still seems a little strange though? The system shows Michigan as a favorite in 24 of 30 games but doesn’t actually expect Michigan to be able to back up the results as a favorite?

I get that if a team is a 51% favorite in 10 games you wouldn’t expect it to go 10-0. But there are 10 games on the list where Michigan is 50-60% favorite to win and 2 games on the list where Michigan is a 40-49% favorite to lose — instead of 10-2 it seems like the system expects Michigan to go 6-6 in those 12 games, which seems kinda harsh?

Just like Duke is a favorite in every game except one, but only has a .3% chance of going undefeated.

If you have a 50% chance to win three different games, you only have a 12.5% chance of winning all three.


Combinatorial math is cruel.

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What I don’t get is the ridiculously high D ranking. Michigan hasn’t sniffed that high a ranking on the defensive side in years.

I’m telling you guys, we will be better than you think. Top 20. We just need consistent shooting out of Walton and Irvin. Team should be good.

That ranking would be the 3rd best defense in the Beilein era and the best since the national championship team.

We’ll be better than 6th place in the Big Ten. Barring injury I don’t see us finishing behind MSU, OSU, and Indiana.

Wisconsin and Purdue do seem to have frontcourts that will cause us problems and a nice mix of experience and talent.

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Secret scrimmage vs Akron was tonight correct? Excited to hear any intel on what went down. Going to write word for word on a couple pre-season reviews of Akron and some of the more notable non conference games. At first glance, were going to have some good tests before the B1G starts up. Hardly any ‘fluff’.

Akron (1st in MAC), Howard(1st in MEAC), IUPUI(4th in Summit), Marquette(5th in Big East), SMU (3rd in AAC only behind UCONN & Cinci) or Pitt (9th in ACC but always a tough team), VTech(5th in ACC), Texas(3rd in Big12), UCLA(3rd in Pac12), Mount St. Mary’s(4th in the Northeast) & Furman (4th in Southern Conf) all projected to finish top 5 in their respective leauges. But as un-fluffy as this non-conf schedule is, to me, these are all very winnable games, home or road. Even @ South Carolina is a tough road game even though they’re only projected 9th in the SEC. Columbia is a tough place to play sometimes.

Howard- This is a very experienced team that should make a large jump this season. The Bison will pack plenty of punch on offense, led by senior James Daniel III. He led the NATION in scoring at 27.1 ppg and earned MEAC player of the year. Three seniors- G James Miller (15ppg), Marcell Boyd (10.4ppg) & Damon Collins (10.1ppg) bring experienced leadership. This could be the conferences deepest team.

Marquette in NY- After relying on Ellenson to carry the heavy load last season, Marquette will be a much more balanced team in '16. The makeup of the roster indicates that the Golden Eagles will rely heavily on making 3 pointers, which is always a risky proposition. They have the talent to snap their postseason drought. There are enough scorers on the roster to replace the points per game lost by Ellenson’s departure, but whether or not the Golden Eagles return to the tourney may come down to whether they can hold their own on the glass and defend the interior. Wojciechowski has proven he can recruit at a high level in Milwaukee, now its time to experience success on the court.

VTech- Its been a long time since Tech had this much talent returning from a successful team. It has a good mix of veteran leadership and young potential to make it one of the top up and coming teams in the ACC. Tech has sen its win total improve by two and nine respectively in Buzz Williams two seasons in Blacksburg. Making the next step to the NCAA tournament isn’t a given but at the rate the Hokies have been moving under their current coaching regime it seems like a realistic expectation this season.

Texas- The Longhorns need a lot of new parts to come together quickly. But if Jones and Roach play well together in the backcourt and if Davis, Mack and/or Isom become 3pt threats, and if Allen and Banks can do all that is asked of them down low Texas could become a team no one wants to face come March. If any or all of those things don’t come together, Texas could be a bubble team - or a NIT team in year two of Smart.

@UCLA-Entering his final season w/ UCLA in '12/'13 Ben Howland loaded up with talent. If Alford is to avoid the fate of Howland he will need to return the Bruins to the post-season at least. That likely won’t happen unless he can blend this teams experience with incoming talent and coax improved defensive play that has lately been an chillies heel for the Bruins.

Akron is reportedly very experienced and led by some talented seniors. I know not a lot comes out from these secret games before the season, but typically a sign of encouragement or pause leaks out at some point.

Any thoughts?

MSU Second Deck-6

Go Blue

They’re might be some info out tonight on the scrimmage from Scout.

FWIW on the secret scrimmages, I wouldn’t get to up or down based on the results as these are times for coaches to experiment, create some ‘motivation’ for players and get some of the bottom guys some run that might not get a lot of minutes during the season.

Certainly, you want to see the team perform well but this will be the first time coaches will get tape on their own team against a different opponent. More than anything, coaches want to get out of their healthy and get a gauge for individual conditioning, general sharpness of the offensive and defensive schemes.

I agree. This is very much on Walton and Irvin playing much better. I believe the other three starters will be very improved. Walton needs to shoot and drive more consistently and each needs to adjust his shot selection slightly and things will go very well.

When does last season stop being part of the formula?

I’ve looked into this and can’t find any evidence of anyone saying “Preseason rankings are completely removed!” like there is with S&P+ rankings. So I wonder if they are apart of the formula the whole season?

tweet ken and ask

Probably after the first game. His rating are intended to indicate who’s playing well now. As I recall after the first game the stats were all over the place, which suggests the previous season seed was removed.