Kameron Chatman to transfer from Michigan

Dylan do you believe Beilein is the type of coach that would try and convince a player to stay? Or is he the type of coach that will put the writing on the wall for the kid and nudge him out the door?

For example like it or not after losing Dawkins I would probably be busting my ass to make sure I retain Chatman. His past couple years haven’t gone as planned but with very little depth in that area it’s a huge question mark going into 2017.

I think he probably realizes that he needs better players than both on his roster. Kam played 51 minutes in the Big Ten last year. He’s a good kid and I love his passing ability, but he was overmatched and hadn’t really shown signs of turning it around.

So I guess the answer is that no I don’t really think that Beilein would be ‘busting his ass’ for Chatman to stay.

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That’s fair I guess the question would be what’s taking DJ Wilson so long? He’s played less than Chatman during these past 2 years. Is he going to play the 4 with Wagner at the 5 while Irvin plays the 3? Beilein isn’t playing 2 bigs though. Maybe DJ wants to get a Michigan degree but as you said Michigan needs better players on their roster… Would Beilein keep him on the roster if he wants to stick around?

“Retaining talent” seems to be a moot point. JB doesnt (and shouldnt, IMO) push for guys to stay when it is obvious that the draft is the right route. And the transfers that he has lost havent been super talented/productive guys. Adding new talent, though, since the 2012 (and 2013, since they were highly ranked guys that havent played up to their billing), is a fair question.

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Every case is different, but a few thoughts about Wilson in addition to getting the degree. He redshirted, and you only get 5 years to play 4, so transferring would deprive him of a year on the court. He wasn’t as highly touted as Chatman and might not be as surprised/disappointed about his situation. And with Chatman gone, Wilson may see an opportunity for himself even as the prime 4 off the bench. And he could get minutes backing up both wing spots, with Irvin sliding down to the 3. Then, in theory, he could still have two years with significant playing time available at the wing.

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This is exactly right: DJ now has the keys to the (backup minutes and, eventually, starting) kingdom. The transfers now leave him with a golden opportunity to earn minutes and set himself up to own the 4 spot, for 2017-2018. Whether or not he actually capitalizes on the opportunity is what we are all eagerly waiting to find out, and his success could significantly impact the 2016-17 season.

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They’ve been trying to make Wilson into a post player, but he never really looked comfortable there. He had no experience at all with that in high school where he looked more like an enormous wing than any sort of front court player. Now that Chatman is gone and 2 freshmen who are only going to be 5s are coming in, Wilson going to get a chance to play a lot more 4, which should be a lot more natural for him. Having him be at least an effective player coming off the bench at the 4 would be huge for next season’s team because it would let Irvin play more 3 and would get another long defender and rebounder on the court to help with some of the deficiencies at the 5. Fingers crossed.

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And you’re the guy with two second memory, evidently. Yeah, we’ve never gotten any elite players under JB. Oh wait, what about all those NBA draft picks? What about the f’ing national player of the year, Trey Burke? How about Nik Stauskas, the Big Ten Player of the Year and high lottery pick? How about Glenn Robinson? You remember him? Mitch McGary? Caris Levert? Darius Morris? What about Xavier Simpson, the Ohio Mr. Basketball? That’s not a good get. Wait, I know, you’ll “wait until he proves it,” that way you can maintain your negative opinion about everything until something disproves it, right?

And again, you keep conveniently forgetting Irvin, Walton, and Chatman were elite recruits, they just haven’t played like it.

Meanwhile, we’re off to a good start in 2017 with Poole, and it seems like we’re in pretty good shape with Cain, too. You don’t like those guys either?

But yes, there is zero reason to believe we’ll ever get a good basketball recruit again. We might as well pack up our sh*t and go home.

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Either the nerve or the complete lack of self-awareness is dazzling

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Here’s one thing you (and others) consistently overlook about the 2014 class.

We landed Chatman, who was always slated to play the four, because it was a foregone conclusion Glenn Robinson would be leaving after his sophomore year.

Our major wing targets in that class were Booker, Blackmon, Vince Edwards (who is a decent player - not an NBA talent and not a guy who would have changed our fortunes much), and Blueitt for a time.

Five star kids like Booker and Blackmon expect to be immediate starters.

In the fall of 2013 - when those guys were picking a school - we had Nik, Caris (who had shown some real ability on a big stage in the 2013 NCAA tournament just a few months earlier), and freshman five star Zak Irvin (who had yet to play a game, so at that time it was fairly safe to assume he was more or less as good as advertised). It’s fair to say we had a logjam at the wing position, and no one had any idea Nik would blow up into a lottery pick and leave school after his sophomore year.

At Kentucky (where Booker committed), in the fall of 2013 (again, before any games had been played), the Harrison twins were top 10 recruits and considered sure one and done talents.

At Indiana, Blackmon could walk right into a starting role.

For the lesser rated guys, there were different issues. We cleared a weekend for Blueitt’s official visit, where we were set to roll out the red carpet for him, and he cancelled to visit UCLA, where he committed (for about a month). That turned the staff off, and they never pursued him again. There was also a longstanding rivalry between the Irvin and Blueitt families, dating back years, and that was an issue.

Edwards seemed to always slightly prefer Purdue, and that’s where he ended up - maybe due to a logjam at the wing, maybe not, who knows.

The point is, the five star kids no doubt wanted to be guaranteed starting jobs, and Booker at Kentucky (due to their constant cycle of one-and-one guys) and Blackmon at IU had better shots to start immediately. Getting one of Blueitt or Edwards would have made the class better, but would hardly have been a game-changer. I don’t think either guy is an NBA talent.

The same is somewhat true for 2015. Walton is your starting PG. A guy like Jalen Brunson wasn’t going to take away his job, yet walked into a starting job at Nova (and won the title, so good choice anyway). Assuming a healthy Irvin and Levert, was Jalen Coleman or Luke Kennard going to step in and start? Unlikely. Jaylen Brown? Yeah, they probably make him a starter for sure, but I question whether we really ever had a legitimate shot at him. PJ Dozier? I liked his talent a lot, but the dude averaged like 5 points a game this year, so again, not a real difference maker.

2017 actually represents a great opportunity, as Irvin, Walton, and now Chatman, are gone. We have our point guard, but JB always likes to have two. Poole likely starts at the two in 2018 (and again, I see that as a great backcourt), and the three and four positions are wide open. I don’t know if we can grab some elite talents (though Cain seems very talented and we made a favorable impression), but I do know there is immediate playing time available that hasn’t been there in awhile. Come 2018, Robinson will also be gone, leaving only Ibi Watson at the 3/4, and only Poole at the 2.

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Floats like a butterfly, stings like a bee.

I can’t fault JB for signing Chatman as he was highly ranked. (For all we know, maybe some other coach will be able to tap into his latent talent.) But there was no reason to believe that any of the other members of the 2014 class would realistically project to be effective in the Big Ten. Actually, the biggest surprise in the 2014 class BY FAR is how decent Abdur-Rahkman turned out to be.

If we bring in another low-ranked late pickup, the 2016 class on the surface will look a lot like 2014’s. (One of the incoming players is frequently likened to Doyle in ability.)

It’s not the end of the world to be a middle-of-the-pack bubble team. But I won’t apologize for thinking we need guys like Malik Williams to be competitive – guys who get Crean’s and Izzo’s most aggressive sales pitches. A mixed bag of projects and high-floor-low-ceiling types won’t get this team back to greatness.

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This is why I would prefer they go grad transfer route. Huge risk that taking a couple 16s ends up like the 2014 class.

I understand people will look at the empty spaces and think top players will flock to Michigan but every team wants to recruit hard and bring in great talent. If Malik Williams is possible I imagine Beilein will need to have an approach similar to Crean and Izzo as you said. If you can play as a frosh Crean and Izzo will play you.

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You mentioned 1 elite player in the last 4 classes. I rest my case

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I’ll tell you what - for the 2017 class, why don’t you go ahead and tell us now who the elite players are, so we know who to recruit.

For example, is Cain worth recruiting? He’s “only” ranked in the 70s or so. Should we take a pass? How about Poole? He’s around 90.

Were you here, predicting Irvin (top 25), Walton (top 40), Donnal (top 100), Chatman (top 25), and Wilson (top 100) wouldn’t be as good as they were ranked?

By the way, as far as rankings go, the only player JB has ever recruited who has been rated higher than Irvin and Chatman was GR3. Not Trey. Not Tim. Not Caris. Not Nik.

In case you haven’t noticed, recruiting is hardly an exact science. There are plenty of five star guys who don’t pan out. All you can do is hope you’ve evaluated correctly. For several years, JB did evaluate correctly. In 2013 and 2014, the players haven’t worked out nearly as well as we hoped. For 2015, I’d argue both Robinson and Wagner showed promise, so that class is hardly a bust at this point.

And in any event, Christ, you act like we went 10-20 this year. Without our best player, and without our senior backup point guard (which meant we had to play Dakich, who is awful), we still won 23 games and made the tourney. That’s far from horrible, and we return every single meaningful player, while adding some guys who may help. So unless you assume that no one is going to improve, and the team itself also won’t improve, 23 wins is your starting baseline for next year. That really doesn’t seem so awful to me.

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Well as a matter of fact I did predict that with Chatman. Never really liked him much, even as a prospect. Of course, I expected more out of Irvin Walton and Donnal.

But let me get this straight. Your response to the lack of elite recruits is to point to three guys who did not play up to their rankings and a fourth guy who was so bad he transferred out?!? You are really too much.

Oh and sorry, I’m hoping for something better than “far from horrible” and “doesn’t seem so awful.”

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It’s difficult to argue with someone who demonstrably doesn’t know very much about how college basketball rosters are constructed.

The only teams that bring in groups of 4-5 elite players every year are teams like Kentucky and Duke, who also have lots of guys leave every year.

Let’s assume Chatman, Irvin, Walton, and Donnal did in fact live up to their rankings. Are you telling me you would have also expected a bunch of other recruits to have come every year, just to sit on the bench? Show me a program where that happens. It doesn’t. I’ll go ahead and predict MSU doesn’t sign a five star shooting guard and a five star wing in the 2017 class. Why? Because Langford and Bridges are there (even though, frankly, both of those guys are far more likely to turn pro after one year than most of our recruits).

Apparently, in your view, coaches can accurately predict when guys are going to take really unprecedented leaps, and can also convince recruits it’s about to happen. You really think, in the fall of 2013, JB knew Nik Stauskas was going to be a high lottery pick six months later, and could have convinced Devin Booker and James Blackmon of it, so they would commit to us? No fricking chance.

Now let’s return to our current roster. If Zak Irvin was a 17 a game scorer, Derrick Walton averaged 13/6, Kam Chatman scored 14 a game, and Mark Donnal averaged 12/7 (all of which one could reasonably expect from recruits of their stature, by this point in their careers), you really think in addition to that, we would also need a bunch of other, “elite” recruits (who, by the way, wouldn’t even play if those guys were averaging those numbers)?

Elite players want playing time, which is why 2017 and 2018 should be really attractive opportunities (as were 2012 and 2013, after nearly all of the roster had cleared out).

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I don’t even know who all is involved in this argument but @LosAngelesWolverine1 @93grad, I think you guys have both made your points.

That’s the thing—these playing-time projections are best-case scenarios from a development standpoint. As Dawkins and Doyle showed, guys don’t necessarily take a step forward just because they’re a year older. And then, of course, there’s injuries.

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I think you want to assume guys DO develop, and be disappointed when they do not. But context is everything–conditions were better for Aubrey to thrive year before last than they were this year. And nagging injuries aren’t something fans can readily draw a bead on.