I just can’t get on board with what you’re saying about the defense. X and Teske maybe weren’t as good defensively as we hoped, but they were still solid at worst. And their replacements are likely to be below average at best and disasters at worst. I mean we know Davis is a disaster on D, and I can’t see Dickinson or Smith being much better than that. I’ve had these reservations about our defense for a while. Wagner, Brooks, and Livers are solid defenders, but Wagner and Livers are very matchup dependent. If they get matched up with quicker guys they get exposed.
Garza is coming back
Idk. this team finished 9th in the big ten with 3-year starters at PG and C. Now we replace them with basically complete unknowns at this level and no stone cold lock instant impact freshmen. Hard to project improvement.
The XS and JT weren’t good on defense take is … a bit wild. Especially when you consider that you are talking about going to a 5-9 PG and a starting center who can’t really move.
I get that there was a stretch where people scored in the post against Jon but he was really good defensively overall. Put it this way: There was rarely if ever a situation where Michigan’s defense was good and it was because someone else at the five played well defensively.
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Not sure if you read the essay I wrote in the Christopher thread. Not sure if anyone did since it was long, but I’d be interested to hear what you think on my forecasts.
I don’t think this screams 9-12. Fosters are getting bruised all over. Look at Ohio st…
Make a list of the top 50 big ten players next year. I see 4 wolverines on my list with two in the top ten.
Livers and franz are a nasty duo. Franz imo showed late he could take over Games and he was becoming a serious weapon and all that with out hitting wide open threes! Which was part of what was advertised in his game. If that wrist injury really killed him there and he has a full year away I don’t see why he can’t shoot at least 35 percent. Just in increase to that would be deadly. If he jumps to an elite level from deep than your looking at a 1st team all big ten guy.
If Garza come back I’d probably put Michigan as third most talented but still would pick them over Iowa in the standings. Give me Juwan over Fran every day of the week.
Framing any discussion about Michigan’s expectations next year by “this team finished 9th” is pretty disingenuous.
Michigan was T5 in adj conf efficiency, T4 in raw conf efficiency, 4th in KenPom rank … and had a major injury.
If you want to argue the team’s success was in some massive percentage attributable to XS and JT, that’s a reasonable take. But the conference standings thing is just a poor way to look at it.
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Recently there was some video released of a 3 on 3 run of a bunch of college dmv players. Some Maryland players were there, as well as Luka garza and several other various players. It does not have me very encouraged of our defensive prospects with hunter playing the 5.
Heres the video
The point is NOT that the replacements will be better. I think everyone agrees that is unlikely or impossible.
The point is that some were suggesting that X and Teske were great defensive players and so there will be a huge gap between them and next year’s defenders. And some of us are pointing out that X and Teske did not live up to their defensive reputations at all.
Put another way, the question is not whether there will be a defensive drop at those positions, the question is how big the gap will be.
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Yeah, people are wildly overrating the extent to which X and Teske “did not live up to their defensive reputations at all.”
Dickinson and Smith could very likely be disasters. That’s why I think Zeb and BJJ will get a lot of time next year. The latter two aren’t even sure fire average defenders, but they should be good enough (Zeb with his size and athleticism, BJJ guarding the PnR) to mitigate some of the solid-at-best defense from X and Jon last year.
Again, I really think you have to consider the defensive progression from other guys on the roster (including Johns). I don’t see another case of X where he gains too much muscle mass or usage and regresses significantly. I see a MUCH healthier Livers (fingers crossed), and a much more physically ready Wagner, both of which can be key. I don’t think I’m being a homer here either; I’ve been negative enough with guys like Todd, DDJ etc, in the past while they were committed to make me believe that my thoughts are valid and unbiased 
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Fair. Plug “This team was tied for 5th in conference efficiency” into the sentence instead and the point likely still holds. Replacing two guys that started 100+ games with freshmen that weren’t expected to play much right away is not something I’d bet to result in a climb up the standings, using efficiency metrics or wins and losses.
Maybe. But there are multiple losses on last year’s schedule where you can point directly to those two players getting abused defensively as a significant factor. I’m not saying they never played well either.
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I’m not saying they’ll finish third in the standings I just think they’re the second or third most talented team in the conference.
We still bring in 3 four stars the only other team in the conference that can say that is Indiana.
I never said that. I said they were horrible relative to expectations.
Teske was considered an elite defensive center, but went on an unprecedented long cold streak of allowing opposing centers feast on him game after game. X was one of the best on-ball guys in the country, maybe the best defensive PG in the country, and morphed into a very good offensive player who struggled to guard at times as a young 22 year old.
Both of these guys, were subpar defensively for certain stretches, and all in all, were at most solid defensively last season. I think every single person on here would’ve been shocked at their level of defense this past season. Relative to expectations, I don’t think my opinion is wild at all.
The second Sparty game showed that Juwan is capable of adjusting strategies. It feels good that Simpson and Teske went out winners against Izzo.
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My sense is that X and JT were not nearly as good defensively as their reputations. It is just my opinion and it is hard to pin down “reputation”. Brooks looked to be a better defender than X to me.
On the flip side X was better than his reputation as a poor 3 point shooter. He improved.
Exactly. It’s not a knock on X’s impact whatsoever. He actually managed to become one of the most efficient PnR players in the country, and improved his 3 point percentage every year. He was consistently good since his sophomore year, just in very dramatically different ways.
This board 90% of the year - “Cole Bajema is going to be a stud and it’s criminal he doesn’t get more minutes now. Really hope he sticks around.”
This board now that there is a gaping hole for Bajema to potentially fill - “The sky is falling!”
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Eli Brooks had a larger defensive impact, yes. That doesn’t change the fact that Simpson to anything is a huge defensive drop off, especially when it is Simpson to anything on Michigan’s roster right now.
To tie that into a narrative of “I expected him to be the best defensive guard in the Big Ten while also playing every minute and carrying the offense” is just going to lead to disappointment.
Even if you put Simpson out there with 1 leg, you are losing so much as far as understanding the game and reacting to plays, communication, etc.
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