Overall, this season is following the script remarkably well so far. It’s still early, but kenpom offense number 7 and defense number 47 is very similar to what we’ve seen in the past and what some of us hoped for and considered quite possible this year.
Looking more closely at the offense numbers, we see the same script in the details. Very low TO rate (14%), good shooting (e.g., 42% 3pt, 57% TS), fairly low ORb% and FTA/FGM (both 31%), but in line with the last few years.
One area that we could see some improvement: more shots at the rim - we are shooting only 21% of our shots at the rim, after not shooting less than 24% there the last three years. Conversely, 41% or our shots are 2 pt jumpers after not going over 38% the last three years. One big reason: GRIII shot 26% of his shots at the rim (after shooting 43% there the year before), while Kam only has shot 7% of his shots there, and Zak shoots less than GRIII when he’s at the 4 too (although he’s shooting more there than Caris or Derrick so far this year). Kam may never reach GRIII’s rate, but he’s going to learn to get some more easy ones, like he did a couple times against Villanova. Caris could also stand to get to the rim a bit more, as he’s looked great doing it and is shooting a bit less there than last year. I expect as the new players get more comfortable with the offense, and perhaps as Doyle gets more minutes too, we’ll see more shots at the rim. In general, though, the numbers are looking like a typical, very impressive, Michigan offense so far.