Questions about the 13-14 starting to be answered

Michigan Basketball
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Coming into this season, there were a lot of questions circling the 2013-2014 Michigan basketball team. It’s still early, but 5 games in some of the questions are starting to be answered.

Who will replace Burke as the guy with the ball in his hands at the end of the game?
Nik Stauskas. Stauskas has the confidence you want in a guy that is taking the final shot. Everyone knows he can shoot, but his ability to get to the hoop has always been underrated.

Will GRIII take his game to an elite level by developing his dribble/drive?
No. GRIII is a great player who doesn’t excel at any one particular facet (besides dunking). He has the talent to blow up for a 20/10 night here and there, but more often than not he is going to be having quiet 13/6 type nights.

Was Mitch McGary’s post-season a fluke?
No. Mitch’s size, talent, and motor are going to continue to show up on the stat sheet. I think McGary might end with a ridiculous amount of double/doubles, a solid source of steals, and respectable blocked shots #s.

Will Mitch McGary take his game to the next level by developing post moves and becoming less awkward in the paint?
No. That is not a knock on McGary, because I think he is one of the top 5 centers in the nation. McGary has a great overall skill set, but I don’t see him being a great scorer. I think we will see several games where McGary has more rebounds than points.

Will Derrick Walton be able to step in and run the offense?
This is TBD, IMO. Walton has looked good at times and like a freshman PG at times. The Big Ten has a lot of talent at PG this year and I need to see more from Walton before I am comfortable going into conference play.

Who will replace Tim Hardaway Jr.?
Caris LeVert. I think this trade off is a wash. LeVert’s improvement from last year is incredible. Though he isn’t the scorer that THJ was, LeVert brings better defense, ball-handling, and vision to the table. This is huge for Michigan because 5* Zak Irvin is nowhere near ready for extended minutes.

How will the new foul rules affect Michigan?
Michigan was always pretty good at drawing the charge. We aren’t going to be getting those calls anymore and that is going to put a big onus on our bigs. Without our guards in the lane drawing charges, McGary is going to be in foul trouble a lot. He has already had 3 fouls in 14 minutes, 4 fouls in 22 minutes, and 4 fouls in 33 minutes.

On the other side of the court, Michigan is going to be a huge benefactor. Players have to play Stauskas close because of his ability to shoot and quick release. This is going to allow him to get a lot of “hip-check” foul calls. That is a huge weapon for a player that shot FTs at an 85% clip last year. You can bet that both Beilein and Stauskas realize this. Stauskas played 39 games last year and averaged 30.5 minutes per game. He shot a total of 87 free throws. In 5 games this season, Stauskas has already shot 37 free throws- putting him on pace for a total of 222.

These are just my opinions and shouldn’t be taken as fact.

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Agree for the most part. Although I think you’re selling McGary’s improvement in the post short. Mitch has shown significant improvement in his footwork and touch in the post. Much more arch on his shot from the FT line as well. Last year he shot a line drive type shot.

My other disagreement would be Caris being a wash with THJ. Caris is a better ball handler/passer, but he has difficulty with his balance because he’s simply not strong enough to handle contact. Never going to be the scorer that THJ was. Also, his perimeter defense is compromised because the opposition has identified him as the weak link in the post, and have specifically targeted Caris in that regard. If Caris is used in the 1-3-1 he is our best defender, but if it’s just straight man, he doesn’t apply ball pressure to the extent that he needs to, and is obviously outmanned in the post.

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I’m not so sure that Caris won’t be the scorer that TJHR is… I fully expect him to be better than Tim ever was but probably not this year. He has the length to be extremely effective and he can handle another 10-15 lbs of muscle. He is a better playmaker, rebounder and defender than Tim ever was…

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I think so far Caris has shown he’s an effective replacement for THJ.

Both are averaging about the same minutes, same points, rebounds, and blocks as each other. Caris has an edge in steals.

The big thing so far is Caris is more EFFICIENT.
FG 50% vs. 44%.
FT 80% vs. 69%
3P 48% vs. 37%

Caris also has a 4-1 Asst./TO ratio.
THJ was only about a 1.3-1 Asst./TO ratio.

The thing for Caris will be…can it hold up? B10 season + NCAA tourney will have some tough teams.

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I'm not so sure that Caris won't be the scorer that TJHR is... I fully expect him to be better than Tim ever was but probably not this year. He has the length to be extremely effective and he can handle another 10-15 lbs of muscle. He is a better playmaker, rebounder and defender than Tim ever was....

While I certainly agree that Caris is a better defender than THJ ever was, better rebounder, and better passer as well, I don’t think he will be an impact scorer like Tim, at least not this year. I guess my response was geared more toward this year since the original post was relevant to answering questions which presumably relate to this year as opposed to future years. Quite frankly, if we’re comparing those 2 at the same stages of their career it isn’t even close. THJ was an impact scorer during his freshman and sophomore years, while Caris hasn’t even established himself as a scorer during his sophomore campaign.

I think Caris has definitely improved, but if we’re being honest Caris’ averages are tainted by playing cupcakes. If we look at the 2 games against legit competition, Caris is averaging 5 pts a game and is 4-15 from the field and 2 -10 from 3. He’s feasted on bums, hence the averages. To his credit though, he has been good on the glass with 14 boards in those 2 games. However, my contention is that he won’t be the scorer that THJ was, and I still believe that to be true.

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JBlair - agreed that we probably need to let the season shake out before coming to any conclusions. Personally, I have my doubts unless the refs are serious about not allowing the physical play on the perimeter.

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I'm not so sure that Caris won't be the scorer that TJHR is... I fully expect him to be better than Tim ever was but probably not this year. He has the length to be extremely effective and he can handle another 10-15 lbs of muscle. He is a better playmaker, rebounder and defender than Tim ever was....

While I certainly agree that Caris is a better defender than THJ ever was, better rebounder, and better passer as well, I don’t think he will be an impact scorer like Tim, at least not this year. I guess my response was geared more toward this year since the original post was relevant to answering questions which presumably relate to this year as opposed to future years. Quite frankly, if we’re comparing those 2 at the same stages of their career it isn’t even close. THJ was an impact scorer during his freshman and sophomore years, while Caris hasn’t even established himself as a scorer during his sophomore campaign.

I think Caris has definitely improved, but if we’re being honest Caris’ averages are tainted by playing cupcakes. If we look at the 2 games against legit competition, Caris is averaging 5 pts a game and is 4-15 from the field and 2 -10 from 3. He’s feasted on bums, hence the averages. To his credit though, he has been good on the glass with 14 boards in those 2 games. However, my contention is that he won’t be the scorer that THJ was, and I still believe that to be true.

Tim didn’t exactly show up against big competition consistently either. I agree that Caris isn’t comparable at the same stage as a scorer because he has a severely underdeveloped frame. I think he has more tools in the long run to grow exponentially where as what you see is what you get with Tim. Caris so far reminds me of Nik last year: fourth option who torched bad competition but he has a better overall floor game so he isn’t a liability if he isn’t scoring like freshmen year Nik.

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Caris is certainly a better shot creator in relation to THJ, at least in their respective second years. Caris is a much better ball handler, and has much better footwork, change of direction, and change of speed in comparison to THJ. However, I think Caris is limited by the fact that he basically shoots a set shot vs. the true jumpshot that THJ had. Combine that with his low release point, and it becomes very hard for Caris to get off a quality pull up jumpshot off the bounce. Virtually all of Caris’ jumpshots inside the arch come after a reverse pivot from about 12 feet because he has no lift on his shot and the low release point. In my opinion, Caris either has to go all the way to the rack or be a spotup shooter. I prefer Caris at the 1. Zak Irvin has much more scoring upside in my opinion because he has already mastered the pull up jumpshot and has good shooting mechanics/release point. Needs to work on his handles/footwork in order to be more effective.

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Yeah his jumpshot is a little funky. I do think he has a floater that I’ve seen him use that could become a bit more utilized with those long limbs.

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Love the up to date analysis. IMO this team will go as far as it’s desire to play team defense can take it. With Morgan being relegated to non-factor status, who will emerge as a help side defender willing to assume this vital role? The 1-3-1 will always be effective as a change of pace, and it certainly helped us win against FSU, but we have to be able to man up consistently. Right now we are not able to do so. The image of KU making 25+ lay ups in the tourney last year is hard to erase. A highly entertaining group to watch compete however, and I love their feistiness. We need to show continued growth on D to progress further. Hope we can!