I previously posted some numbers comparing the offense the last three years:
My takeaways were that the biggest factors in keeping an elite offense this coming year were keeping TOs low and continuing to shoot well, while getting to the line/offensive rebounding were bonuses that could really elevate the team (no huge surprises).
Here’s a look at some defensive numbers (from Hoops Math) – with some more takeaways that are not so surprising:
2011-12 - Kenpom # Adj D- 61
%ofshots at rim - 21% fg% at rim - 68%
%ofshots 2pt jumper - 46% fg% 2pt jumper - 37%
%ofshots 3 pt jumper- 33% fg% 3pt jumper - 35%
Opp FTA/FGA - 30%
Def Reb% - 70%
Steal % - 8.0%
Opp TO% - 20.2%
Block % - 4.7%
2012-13 - Kenpom# - 48
%ofshots at rim - 21% fg% at rim - 65%
%ofshots 2pt jumper - 46% fg% 2pt jumper - 40%
%ofshots 3 pt jumper- 34% fg% 3pt jumper - 33%
Opp FTA/FGA - 23%
Def Reb% - 71%
Steal % - 9.5%
Opp TO% - 18.6%
Block % - 4.9%
2013-14 - Kenpom # -109
%ofshots at rim - 24% fg% at rim - 70%
%ofshots 2pt jumper - 45% fg% 2pt jumper - 40%
%ofshots 3 pt jumper- 31% fg% 3pt jumper - 32%
Opp FTA/FGA - 27%
Def Reb% - 70%
Steal % - 8.2%
Opp TO% - 17.1%
Block % - 4.3%
-Rebounding and block % differences were minor
-Shots at rim were significantly higher in 13-14 than either of the previous 2 years
-FT% was by far lowest in 12-13
-Keep players out of the lane! Not only was there a higher % of shots at the rim last year, they shot better once they got there.
-FTA/FGA was also lowest in 2013, probably from keeping out of the lane and not playing a 6’4" guy at PF (Zack had a much higher foul rate than GRIII).
-I think we benefitted in 2013 from having a sophmore Trey and a Jr THJr at the 1 and 2 spots, as we benefitted in 2010-11 (when we finished with Kenpom # 37) from having a sophmore Darius and Stu and the 1 and 2 spots.
-Holding steady at rb% is key. We don’t have to be great, but it’d help not to revert. I note that we did hold steady in JMo’s freshman year, though the year before than with Sims at center and Zack at the 4 we were down to 66%.
-This provides some hope - if we can get improved defense on the perimiter this year, mostly from Derrick and Caris at the 1-2 spots (and Zak at the 3), we have a shot, provided the 4-5 spot is at least serviceable, of seeing an improved defensive performance.