MSU’s D also had an insane 2P% early last year, and it took a stepback as conference play started (and still ended up being insane). I think it was something like 32% for the first couple of months.
I think we end up in the 41% range, which may or may not lead college hoops.
Yep – there will be some inevitable, but still should track toward that low 40s range. I just wonder whether there will be some cracks along the way. Still very early obviously.
2pt% regression seems inevitable, but even the lesser defenders seem pretty good about making shots somewhat contested. DR% worries me somewhat (all relative of course). Nova and Prov both did pretty well, especially at certain times of the game.
Really liked this article @umhoops. Some awesome statistics in there. In particular, where did you get the stat/rankings on the average defensive length of possession?
Love the article! In it, you ended with asking if it’s sustainable. I kind of have another thought off those stats.
What type of team/style of offense can give Michigan the most trouble?
Seems like any style of offense can be stopped with this team.
UNC will be a good test (offensive rebounding and crazy transition and capable of playing without 3PA).
Then you have the Villanova (April version) test where a perimeter-oriented team still is able to get off its volume 3PA.
The interesting thing to me is that Section 2 essentially takes margin of victory/loss into account, which was something the NCAA has never allowed in football and wasn’t in the RPI calculation. In the BCS era, all the football computer algorithms had to be switched so as not to account for margin. And now it’s in the NET for all intents and purposes.
It will be interesting to see if some scores are run up come late February/early March by bubble teams…
Sorry, meant to post this under the NET article…take it easy on the new guy…
Thanks for the quick answer.
It’ll be interesting to see if the offense can take advantage of their porous defense versus how much they bend on defense against UNC.
The good news is it sure doesn’t seem like anyone is out there similar to last year’s Nova. (In style and capability, not necessarily talent.) Unless I’m missing any similar profiles?
Dylan: Two things here. 1) Does our steal rate early in a possession have any effect on the stat for length of possession before the opponent shoots. 2) Do you think Z will have White to defend in the NC game.
The steal rate I quoted in the piece was Michigan’s offensive steal rate FWIW. As in, Michigan doesn’t get the ball stolen which cuts down on defensive transition possessions.
Haven’t dove into UNC too much yet, but probably?