And the next two opponents (IU and OSU) have negative margins, so we finish with 7 of 8 against positive-margin teams. Not a simple task.
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12 games left, I included that when I did the 7 of 10 stat.
MSU is playing very well, but whether theyâre head and shoulders above the league will turn in part on whether their 3pt defense % holds up. Last year MSU had the #1 2pt defense but teams shot 34% from 3 against them in the nonconference and conference. This year in conference teams are shooting 26% from 3. Next two games for them @Iowa and @PU could be a good test.
Oh yeah, 20-game schedule, I forgot 
Indiana has dropped five games in a row, but there are a few schedule losses in there. Hoosiers played 5 games in the 16 days and 4 of them were on the road.
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Really only Nebraska by 15 at home is the only shocker. NâW isnât a good team, but still good enough to beat teams at home. @MIchigan, @Purdue and @Maryland are probably losses predicted at the beginning of the year for them. I have to think theyâll be up for it on Friday night.
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Yeah, something has give here. MSU is 1st the conference in 3-point percentage allowed (25.6%) but 11th in the volume of 3-point shots allowed (38.5% of FG allowed are treys).
By comparison, Michigan, who strongly emphasizes limiting their opponentsâ attempts from deep, only allows 29.4% of total FG to be from beyond the arc, and opponents are hitting only 31.8% (6th in B1G but 3rd is 31.1%). The best way to not get burned by the 3-ball is to not allow them in the first place.
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The thing about 3-point randomness is that it doesnât necessarily have to regress toward the mean over the course of a season. Doesnât mean it wonât, either.
Sure, but it means going forward we shouldnât expect teams to shoot like that against MSU any more than any other team.
Big games tonight PU @OSU, and Wiscy @Ill. All those teams could all really use these wins.
MSU plays pretty fast and runs a lot. Maybe tired legs + playing from behind = high 3pt volume & low 3pt accuracy.
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They play fast but not THAT fast. UNC, Duke, Gonzaga, Kansas are all top 10 teams that play faster
I think MSU is doing a remarkably good job of defending the 3 point line. I am not going to get into a big argument again but I do not buy that good 3 point defense is a defense that prevents 3âs from being shot in the first place. MSU does a good job of applying pressure but not too much pressure. IMO good 3 point defense involves the right amount of pressure (between too much and too little) and not simply running guys off the 3 point line.
Reasonable minds can disagree as to whether 3 point % defense is mostly random and whether MSU is doing something special in conference play this year re: 3 pt defense. And even if it is random, MSU could continue to benefit. Weâll see what happens.
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IMO the way MSU plays by running/transition is better conducive to teams with more talent than the other. More possessions = talent winning out.
Theyâre dominating right now because the Big Ten is simply solid but not elite. MSU has more talent than those solid teams but not elite talent. Hence, why I donât see MSU making a run in the tournament.
OSU hits a half court shot right before half to cut the Purdue lead to 10. OSUâs collapse since the MSU game has been something. Would be a big win for either team tonight
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I hope JB isnât watching this game. Kaleb Wesson fouled out with about 5 minutes to go
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Purdue beats OSU. OSU probably looking at the wrong side of the bubble now
Not sure the bubble is realistic.
Meanwhile, Illinois only down 2 to Wisconsin with 12 minutes to go.
It would be interesting to see a Film Room study of Wisconsin charges/flops prior to the next Michigan/Wisconsin game. The Illinois game turned after two bad(?) charge calls on Illinois. It appears to be a large part of their game.