Not sure what you mean as far as a shrug. I think it points out how similar most of the teams are and how little separation there is between the middle 10 teams in the league.
Indiana is the hard one to sort out w/ the XJ situation IMO. Very interesting set of four games coming up for them (at Iowa, NW, at PSU, Wisconsin).
NW is #1 in the country in 2pt defense??? Led by some dude from Clarkston??
Wow Iām fascinated by them now. Havenāt watch them this year. But they are giving up tons of 3s and assists but somehow have shut down the paint.
4th in block rate is maybe the crazier stat. Easy schedule but still insane.
Going to go ahead and say that Penn State is my favorite team to watch/analyze in the Big Ten. Not the best team, but I love how they play.
Potential podcast topic for you and Brendan, or maybe just to throw around in here: Who is the Big Ten coach most likely to not be back next year? Iād argue itās Shrewsberry. Collins and Hoiberg have competent enough teams to stave off their firing, and everyone else is more less entrenched. Juwan to the NBA and Minnesota just immediately bailing on Ben Johnson are the other two candidates I think.
But Shrews is overqualified for Penn State and with the Brad Stevens connection I think heād have options at both the collegiate and pro level. I still donāt buy their offense being this good, though. Wynter, Funk, Lundy, and Dread are basically all hitting their 90th percentile in 3P%. But with all of those guys plus Pickett moving on he might be wise to strike while heās hot.
Love the question and will try to bring it up on the pod at some point.
For me, I buy Pickett being this good which is why those guys are shooting it so well. I loved him in the portal two years ago and think that PSU staff has done a terrific job of elevating his game in two years. So I give some credit there.
That being said, this is very much a ceiling team (everyone is ancient and everyone is leaving) so maybe it does make sense to capitalize on that if you are Micah. Probably depends how the rest of the year goes.
Iām saying that the standings almost always have more positive and negative outliers than this cluster around .500 (particularly more negative than just Minnesota here), Iād expect those to exist, but at this point Kenās formula doesnāt āseeā them.
I think NW is a 5-ish win team, not an 8-ish win team. I donāt know how KP sees injury (or if it does) but MSU playing a total of 5 games with their best pure scorer seems like a potential blind spot.
Maybe itās self-care but Iām not ready to put us as a .500+ team yet.
They remind me a ton of 2012 Michigan. Profiles are pretty similar too
Oh man youāre right. We had a bit of a better offense likely because we had a 2nd high usage offensive player who had reasonable efficiency (Hardaway), but definitely similar.
Yeah, the four factors are very early Beilein (just running a million PNRs instead of playing two-guard) but that Michigan team actually turned out pretty good defensively in the end and Iām worried about that with PSU.
PSU - As we know too well, a good PG makes everyone else better. I just donāt see their 3pt% holding up in a bunch of hostile road games and with the scouting we see in the B10 down the stretch.
NW - I agree with @mgl in that something is going to give with them because Iāve seen the Buie/Audige routine for two years now and you canāt tell me this is sustainable.
MSU - This is the one with potential upside because Izzo usually maximizes them late in the year and getting Hall healthy is a big deal. I do worry about whether Hall will ever truly be healthy since it is a foot issue. I also think their flaws and limitations will keep them from being a truly āgoodā team.
IU - Hardest one for me to figure out. I never bought into them and have a bias there, but they did play pretty well except against the elite teams. Probably the biggest wildcard.
Purdue - Still think theyāre the best and Edey alone keeps them there. But weāve now seen what they look like when their young guards arenāt hitting jumpers consistently - which may happen more in the slog of the B10 season.
Someone convince me why I shouldnāt ignore every late-season slide and go all in on Holtmann ā¦ Great offense, ton of experience, talented freshman, multiple ways to score. Sensabaugh is legit. Guard play is great. Probably two of the best freshman in the conference. Never been a Sueing guy, but heās pretty good as a 4th option/glue guy.
This team feels better than a lot of the teams teams that people are trying to hype up in the conference.
Two really good freshman (with recruiting pedigree to boot) surrounded by all upper classman. Canāt ask for much more than that. Might be my pick to win the conference
The problem is that it feels like thereās a 2-3 week period where I think Ohio State is going to win the league every year ā¦ and then they donāt.
Yeah I canāt say it wonāt happen but I just have a hard time believing Holtmann is choking as much as those teams were generally not regarded as conference title contenders, played like they wereā¦.and then did not. It seems like for each team they finished at roughly the quality weād have expected prior to getting excited.
I also just think these guys have more good players. Nobody here is EJ Liddell but they have probably 5 guys better than their third best guy last year?
Sensabaugh is probably better than Branham (and I mean this as high praise), and Key, Thornton, McNeil, and Sueing (who basically didnāt play) are better than anyone they played outside of EJ and Branham.
You donāt miss the Lamar Stevens post ups?
Hard to believe heās carved out an NBA career so far.
Ohio State has been sneakily bad in March. Or maybe not so sneakily bad. They havenāt reached a Sweet 16 since 2012/13. They were maybe a top 3 B1G program at the time.
Hence why I call him above the fold Holtmann on the pod. Looks great on KenPom before you scroll down.
Alright everybody, I know youāve all been waiting for this, but after last nightās result Iāve revised the official 2023 B1G tiering:
Tier 1- Everyone not named Minnesota
Tier 2- Minnesota
Boom, case closed, conference solved, place your bets accordingly.
Poor Minnesota. Fire Richard Pitino and two years later heās coaching the last undefeated team in the sport and theyāre somehow worse off than they were before